Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 1–31 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 32.0% 30.0–34.0% 29.4–34.6% 28.9–35.1% 28.0–36.1%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.5% 22.2–28.0% 21.4–28.9%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 15.0% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.4%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.3% 8.5–14.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 6.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 112 105–119 103–121 102–123 99–127
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 88 81–94 79–96 78–98 75–101
Partidul Național Liberal 93 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 38 34–43 33–45 32–46 30–49
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 21 17–25 16–26 16–27 14–29

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.6% 99.2%  
101 0.9% 98.6%  
102 1.2% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 3% 93%  
106 4% 89%  
107 5% 86%  
108 6% 81%  
109 6% 75%  
110 7% 69% Last Result
111 7% 63%  
112 7% 55% Median
113 7% 48%  
114 7% 41%  
115 7% 34%  
116 6% 27%  
117 5% 22%  
118 4% 17%  
119 3% 12%  
120 3% 9%  
121 2% 7%  
122 1.4% 4%  
123 1.0% 3%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.3%  
126 0.3% 0.8%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.3%  
77 0.8% 98.8%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 92%  
82 5% 89%  
83 5% 84%  
84 7% 80%  
85 6% 73%  
86 8% 67%  
87 7% 59%  
88 8% 51% Median
89 7% 44%  
90 7% 36%  
91 6% 29%  
92 6% 23%  
93 5% 17%  
94 3% 13%  
95 3% 9%  
96 2% 6%  
97 1.4% 4%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.4%  
44 1.1% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 76%  
51 9% 68%  
52 10% 60%  
53 9% 50% Median
54 9% 41%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 25%  
57 6% 18%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.5% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.6% 99.6%  
31 1.3% 98.9%  
32 2% 98%  
33 4% 96%  
34 5% 92%  
35 8% 87%  
36 8% 79%  
37 10% 71%  
38 11% 60% Median
39 10% 49%  
40 10% 39%  
41 8% 29%  
42 7% 21%  
43 5% 14%  
44 4% 10%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 1.5% 99.3%  
16 3% 98%  
17 6% 95%  
18 9% 89%  
19 13% 80%  
20 15% 67%  
21 13% 52% Last Result, Median
22 11% 39%  
23 10% 27%  
24 7% 18%  
25 5% 10%  
26 3% 6%  
27 1.4% 3%  
28 0.7% 1.4%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 112 0% 105–119 103–121 102–123 98–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 91 0% 85–98 83–100 81–101 78–105
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 73 0% 67–80 66–81 64–83 61–86
Partidul Național Liberal 93 53 0% 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.4%  
100 0.6% 99.0%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 1.3% 98%  
103 2% 96%  
104 3% 95%  
105 4% 92%  
106 3% 88%  
107 5% 85%  
108 6% 80%  
109 7% 74%  
110 6% 68%  
111 8% 61%  
112 8% 54% Median
113 8% 46%  
114 6% 38%  
115 6% 32%  
116 6% 26%  
117 5% 21%  
118 4% 16%  
119 4% 12%  
120 3% 9%  
121 2% 6%  
122 1.3% 4%  
123 0.9% 3%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.2%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 0.7% 99.0%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 1.5% 97%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 94%  
85 4% 91%  
86 5% 87%  
87 6% 82%  
88 6% 75%  
89 7% 69%  
90 7% 62%  
91 8% 55% Median
92 7% 48%  
93 8% 40%  
94 7% 32%  
95 6% 26%  
96 5% 20%  
97 4% 15%  
98 3% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 0.7% 99.1%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 3% 96%  
67 3% 93%  
68 4% 90%  
69 5% 85%  
70 7% 80%  
71 8% 73%  
72 9% 65%  
73 8% 57%  
74 8% 48% Median
75 7% 40%  
76 7% 33%  
77 6% 26%  
78 6% 21%  
79 5% 15%  
80 3% 11%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.3%  
86 0.3% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.4%  
44 1.1% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 76%  
51 9% 68%  
52 10% 60%  
53 9% 50% Median
54 9% 41%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 25%  
57 6% 18%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.5% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations