Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 1–31 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 31.5% 29.7–33.4% 29.2–33.9% 28.8–34.4% 27.9–35.3%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 20.2% 18.7–21.9% 18.2–22.3% 17.9–22.7% 17.2–23.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.2–21.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 122 117–128 112–132 112–133 108–137
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 72–84 71–86 69–87 66–91
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 70 64–76 63–78 61–79 59–82
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 33–52

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.4% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.5%  
109 0% 99.4%  
110 0% 99.4% Last Result
111 0.5% 99.4%  
112 5% 98.9%  
113 1.4% 94%  
114 0% 93%  
115 0% 93%  
116 0.9% 93%  
117 19% 92%  
118 6% 73%  
119 0% 67%  
120 0% 67%  
121 0.4% 67%  
122 27% 67% Median
123 11% 39%  
124 0% 29%  
125 0% 29%  
126 0% 29%  
127 15% 29%  
128 8% 14%  
129 0% 6%  
130 0% 6%  
131 0% 6%  
132 3% 6%  
133 3% 3%  
134 0% 0.6%  
135 0% 0.6%  
136 0% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.3% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 99.0%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92%  
73 5% 89%  
74 6% 84%  
75 7% 78%  
76 8% 71%  
77 9% 63%  
78 8% 55% Median
79 9% 46%  
80 7% 38%  
81 7% 30%  
82 6% 23%  
83 5% 17%  
84 4% 13%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.5%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.7% 99.2%  
61 1.2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 5% 89%  
66 6% 84%  
67 7% 78%  
68 8% 70%  
69 9% 62%  
70 9% 54% Median
71 8% 45%  
72 8% 36%  
73 7% 28%  
74 6% 22%  
75 5% 16%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 1.0% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 5% 93%  
38 6% 89%  
39 8% 82%  
40 10% 74%  
41 11% 65%  
42 11% 54% Median
43 10% 43%  
44 9% 33%  
45 7% 24%  
46 6% 17%  
47 4% 11%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 120 0% 113–127 111–129 110–130 106–134
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 0% 72–84 71–86 69–87 66–91

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.5% 99.2%  
109 0.8% 98.6%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 4% 89%  
115 5% 85%  
116 5% 81%  
117 7% 75%  
118 7% 69%  
119 8% 62%  
120 8% 54% Median
121 8% 46%  
122 7% 39%  
123 6% 32%  
124 6% 26%  
125 5% 20%  
126 4% 15%  
127 3% 11%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 5%  
130 1.2% 4%  
131 0.9% 2%  
132 0.6% 1.5%  
133 0.4% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 99.0%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92%  
73 5% 89%  
74 6% 84%  
75 7% 78%  
76 8% 71%  
77 9% 63%  
78 8% 55% Median
79 9% 46%  
80 7% 38%  
81 7% 30%  
82 6% 23%  
83 5% 17%  
84 4% 13%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.5%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations