Opinion Poll by Atlas Intel, 27–30 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 25.8% 24.6–27.1% 24.2–27.5% 23.9–27.8% 23.4–28.4%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.1% 16.9–20.4% 16.4–20.9%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 17.9% 16.8–19.1% 16.5–19.4% 16.3–19.6% 15.8–20.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 12.9% 12.0–13.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.5–14.4% 11.1–15.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 6.6% 6.0–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 6.2% 5.5–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.7%
PRO România 4.1% 4.2% 3.6–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.4–5.1% 3.1–5.4%
Forța Dreptei 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 93 88–97 86–98 85–100 82–101
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 66 62–70 60–71 60–72 58–75
Partidul Național Liberal 93 63 59–67 58–69 57–69 55–71
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 46 42–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 23 21–26 20–27 20–28 19–29
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 21 19–24 18–25 18–25 0–27
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0–17 0–18
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.6% 99.3%  
84 0.9% 98.7%  
85 2% 98%  
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 94%  
88 4% 91%  
89 8% 87%  
90 6% 79%  
91 10% 73%  
92 10% 62%  
93 21% 52% Median
94 9% 31%  
95 8% 22%  
96 4% 14%  
97 4% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.2% 4%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.6% 1.1%  
102 0.1% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 1.2% 99.0%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 94%  
62 5% 91%  
63 15% 86%  
64 11% 71%  
65 9% 60%  
66 16% 51% Median
67 10% 35%  
68 5% 25%  
69 10% 20%  
70 3% 10%  
71 4% 7%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 3% 96%  
59 6% 93%  
60 9% 87%  
61 9% 78%  
62 12% 69%  
63 9% 57% Median
64 16% 48%  
65 7% 31%  
66 11% 24%  
67 4% 13%  
68 4% 9%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 1.1% 99.2%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 10% 89%  
44 13% 78%  
45 10% 65%  
46 15% 55% Median
47 9% 40%  
48 15% 32%  
49 7% 17%  
50 6% 10%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.7%  
20 4% 98%  
21 10% 94% Last Result
22 12% 83%  
23 24% 72% Median
24 17% 48%  
25 16% 31%  
26 8% 16%  
27 4% 8%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 0% 98.6%  
9 0% 98.6%  
10 0% 98.6%  
11 0% 98.6%  
12 0% 98.6%  
13 0% 98.6%  
14 0% 98.6%  
15 0% 98.6%  
16 0% 98.6%  
17 0.4% 98.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 11% 94%  
20 16% 84%  
21 23% 68% Median
22 16% 44%  
23 13% 29%  
24 10% 16%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0% 3%  
15 0% 3%  
16 0% 3%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.0% 1.3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 154 0.2% 148–158 147–160 145–161 140–163
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 133 0% 127–137 125–139 124–141 122–145
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 130 0% 126–135 123–136 122–138 117–140
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 109 0% 104–113 102–115 101–117 99–121
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 108 0% 103–113 101–114 100–115 91–118
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 93 0% 88–97 87–100 85–102 83–106
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 87 0% 82–91 81–92 79–93 78–96
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 85 0% 80–89 79–91 77–92 67–94
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 67 0% 63–71 62–73 60–73 50–76
Partidul Național Liberal 93 63 0% 59–67 58–69 57–69 55–71

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 0.3% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.3%  
142 0.6% 99.2%  
143 0.3% 98.6%  
144 0.7% 98%  
145 1.1% 98%  
146 0.6% 97%  
147 3% 96%  
148 6% 93%  
149 2% 87%  
150 5% 85%  
151 6% 80%  
152 10% 74%  
153 7% 64% Median
154 10% 57%  
155 5% 46%  
156 20% 41%  
157 4% 21%  
158 8% 17%  
159 3% 9%  
160 3% 7%  
161 1.5% 4%  
162 1.0% 2%  
163 0.9% 1.4%  
164 0.3% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.2% Majority
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.5% 99.6%  
123 1.1% 99.1%  
124 2% 98%  
125 0.9% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 4% 93%  
128 6% 89%  
129 9% 84%  
130 5% 75%  
131 8% 70%  
132 8% 63% Median
133 7% 55%  
134 15% 47%  
135 13% 33%  
136 6% 20%  
137 4% 13%  
138 4% 9%  
139 2% 6%  
140 1.3% 4%  
141 1.2% 3%  
142 0.4% 1.3%  
143 0.1% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.8%  
145 0.1% 0.6%  
146 0% 0.5%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.1%  
119 0.3% 99.0%  
120 0.4% 98.8%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 2% 98%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 6% 90%  
127 9% 84%  
128 6% 75%  
129 9% 69%  
130 11% 60% Median
131 11% 49%  
132 9% 38%  
133 12% 29%  
134 4% 18%  
135 7% 14%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.3% 5%  
138 2% 4%  
139 1.0% 2%  
140 0.7% 1.0%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 1.1% 99.3%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 5% 93%  
105 5% 88%  
106 8% 83%  
107 10% 75%  
108 10% 65%  
109 5% 55% Median
110 14% 50%  
111 9% 35%  
112 13% 26%  
113 4% 13%  
114 2% 9%  
115 2% 7%  
116 1.3% 5%  
117 2% 3%  
118 0.6% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.1%  
120 0.1% 0.7%  
121 0.4% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.1% 99.5%  
92 0.1% 99.5%  
93 0.2% 99.4%  
94 0.2% 99.2%  
95 0% 99.0%  
96 0.3% 99.0%  
97 0.1% 98.7%  
98 0.4% 98.5%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 1.1% 96%  
102 4% 95%  
103 5% 90%  
104 6% 85%  
105 7% 79%  
106 4% 72%  
107 5% 68% Median
108 18% 62%  
109 11% 45%  
110 7% 33%  
111 6% 26%  
112 10% 21%  
113 5% 11%  
114 2% 6% Last Result
115 2% 4%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.5% 1.4%  
118 0.6% 0.9%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 1.4% 98.8%  
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 4% 93%  
89 8% 89%  
90 6% 81%  
91 10% 75%  
92 10% 65%  
93 21% 55% Median
94 9% 34%  
95 8% 25%  
96 4% 17%  
97 4% 13%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 7%  
100 2% 5%  
101 0.7% 3%  
102 0.7% 3%  
103 0.4% 2%  
104 0.2% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.4%  
106 0.6% 1.0%  
107 0.1% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.3%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1% Last Result
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95%  
82 6% 92%  
83 5% 85%  
84 9% 80%  
85 9% 71%  
86 9% 63% Median
87 15% 54%  
88 5% 39%  
89 8% 34%  
90 13% 26%  
91 3% 13%  
92 5% 9%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.5%  
68 0.4% 99.4%  
69 0.3% 99.1%  
70 0% 98.8%  
71 0.1% 98.8%  
72 0% 98.7%  
73 0% 98.7%  
74 0.1% 98.6%  
75 0.2% 98.6%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 0.6% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 6% 91%  
81 9% 85%  
82 4% 76%  
83 9% 72%  
84 10% 63% Median
85 16% 53%  
86 9% 36%  
87 7% 27%  
88 11% 21%  
89 2% 10%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 0.8% 2% Last Result
94 0.6% 0.9%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 0.2% 99.4%  
52 0.2% 99.2%  
53 0.2% 99.0%  
54 0.1% 98.7%  
55 0% 98.7% Last Result
56 0% 98.7%  
57 0.1% 98.6%  
58 0.2% 98.6%  
59 0.2% 98%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 96%  
63 3% 92%  
64 10% 89%  
65 6% 79%  
66 16% 73%  
67 12% 57% Median
68 10% 46%  
69 15% 36%  
70 6% 21%  
71 5% 14%  
72 3% 9%  
73 4% 6%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 3% 96%  
59 6% 93%  
60 9% 87%  
61 9% 78%  
62 12% 69%  
63 9% 57% Median
64 16% 48%  
65 7% 31%  
66 11% 24%  
67 4% 13%  
68 4% 9%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations