Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 5–19 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 31.7% 30.6–32.8% 30.3–33.1% 30.1–33.4% 29.5–33.9%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 22.3% 21.3–23.3% 21.1–23.6% 20.8–23.8% 20.4–24.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.2% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.4% 16.9–19.6% 16.4–20.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.2% 10.5–12.0% 10.3–12.2% 10.1–12.4% 9.8–12.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.6% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.7%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.9% 2.5–3.3% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.8%
PRO România 4.1% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 113 109–117 108–118 107–118 105–120
Partidul Național Liberal 93 79 76–83 75–84 74–84 72–86
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 65 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–71
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 40 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.5% 99.8%  
106 0.8% 99.3%  
107 2% 98%  
108 4% 96%  
109 6% 92%  
110 10% 86% Last Result
111 10% 76%  
112 12% 66%  
113 16% 54% Median
114 12% 38%  
115 10% 26%  
116 6% 17%  
117 5% 11%  
118 3% 5%  
119 1.1% 2%  
120 0.6% 1.0%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 6% 96%  
76 6% 90%  
77 11% 84%  
78 11% 72%  
79 17% 62% Median
80 12% 45%  
81 15% 33%  
82 7% 18%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 1.4% 99.4%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 10% 89%  
63 13% 79%  
64 16% 66%  
65 18% 51% Median
66 12% 33%  
67 9% 21%  
68 6% 12%  
69 3% 6%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 16% 86%  
39 17% 70%  
40 21% 52% Median
41 16% 32%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 10% 97%  
15 21% 87%  
16 31% 66% Median
17 20% 34%  
18 10% 14%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 135 0% 131–139 130–140 129–141 127–143
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 135 0% 131–139 130–140 129–141 127–143
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 119 0% 115–123 114–124 113–125 111–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 119 0% 115–123 114–124 113–125 111–126
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 113 0% 109–117 108–118 107–118 105–120
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 95 0% 91–99 91–100 90–101 88–102
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 95 0% 91–99 91–100 90–101 88–102
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 79 0% 76–83 75–84 74–84 72–86
Partidul Național Liberal 93 79 0% 76–83 75–84 74–84 72–86
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.4% 99.7%  
128 1.3% 99.2%  
129 2% 98%  
130 4% 96%  
131 5% 92%  
132 9% 87%  
133 12% 78%  
134 13% 66%  
135 14% 53% Median
136 10% 39%  
137 11% 29%  
138 8% 19%  
139 5% 11%  
140 2% 5%  
141 2% 3%  
142 0.8% 1.4%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.4% 99.7%  
128 1.3% 99.2%  
129 2% 98%  
130 4% 96%  
131 5% 92%  
132 9% 87%  
133 12% 78%  
134 13% 66%  
135 14% 53% Median
136 10% 39%  
137 11% 29%  
138 8% 19%  
139 5% 11%  
140 2% 5%  
141 2% 3%  
142 0.8% 1.4%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.4% 99.7%  
112 1.1% 99.3%  
113 2% 98%  
114 4% 96%  
115 5% 92%  
116 9% 87%  
117 12% 78%  
118 11% 65%  
119 14% 54% Median
120 13% 40%  
121 10% 28%  
122 7% 17%  
123 5% 10%  
124 3% 5%  
125 1.3% 3%  
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.4% 99.7%  
112 1.1% 99.3%  
113 2% 98%  
114 4% 96%  
115 5% 92%  
116 9% 87%  
117 12% 78%  
118 11% 65%  
119 14% 54% Median
120 13% 40%  
121 10% 28%  
122 7% 17%  
123 5% 10%  
124 3% 5%  
125 1.3% 3%  
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.5% 99.8%  
106 0.8% 99.3%  
107 2% 98%  
108 4% 96%  
109 6% 92%  
110 10% 86% Last Result
111 10% 76%  
112 12% 66%  
113 16% 54% Median
114 12% 38%  
115 10% 26%  
116 6% 17%  
117 5% 11%  
118 3% 5%  
119 1.1% 2%  
120 0.6% 1.0%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.8% 99.3%  
90 3% 98.5%  
91 7% 96%  
92 8% 88%  
93 7% 80%  
94 8% 73%  
95 16% 65% Median
96 17% 49%  
97 15% 32%  
98 6% 17%  
99 3% 11%  
100 3% 7%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.0% 1.4%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.8% 99.3%  
90 3% 98.5%  
91 7% 96%  
92 8% 88%  
93 7% 80%  
94 8% 73%  
95 16% 65% Median
96 17% 49%  
97 15% 32%  
98 6% 17%  
99 3% 11%  
100 3% 7%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.0% 1.4%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 6% 96%  
76 6% 90%  
77 11% 84%  
78 11% 72%  
79 17% 62% Median
80 12% 45%  
81 15% 33%  
82 7% 18%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 6% 96%  
76 6% 90%  
77 11% 84%  
78 11% 72%  
79 17% 62% Median
80 12% 45%  
81 15% 33%  
82 7% 18%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 16% 86%  
39 17% 70%  
40 21% 52% Median
41 16% 32%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations