Opinion Poll by Geeks for Democracy, 1 May–30 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 31.0% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 27.9–34.3% 27.0–35.3%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.8% 15.6–22.8%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.0% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.0% 9.7–12.6% 9.4–13.0% 9.1–13.4% 8.5–14.2%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 115 108–123 106–125 104–127 101–131
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 65–77 63–79 61–81 58–84
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 66 60–73 59–75 57–76 55–80
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 41 36–46 35–48 33–49 31–52
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 18 15–22 14–23 13–24 12–26

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.3% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 99.2%  
103 0.8% 98.8%  
104 1.0% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 2% 96%  
107 2% 94%  
108 3% 91%  
109 4% 88%  
110 5% 84% Last Result
111 5% 80%  
112 6% 74%  
113 6% 68%  
114 7% 62%  
115 7% 55% Median
116 7% 48%  
117 7% 42%  
118 6% 35%  
119 5% 29%  
120 5% 24%  
121 4% 19%  
122 4% 15%  
123 3% 11%  
124 2% 8%  
125 2% 6%  
126 1.3% 4%  
127 0.9% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.5% 1.3%  
130 0.3% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 0.7% 99.1%  
61 1.0% 98%  
62 1.5% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 5% 87%  
67 6% 82%  
68 7% 75%  
69 8% 68%  
70 8% 61%  
71 8% 53% Median
72 8% 45%  
73 8% 36%  
74 6% 29%  
75 5% 22%  
76 5% 17%  
77 4% 12%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 93%  
61 5% 90%  
62 6% 85%  
63 6% 80%  
64 7% 73%  
65 8% 66%  
66 8% 58% Median
67 8% 50%  
68 8% 42%  
69 8% 34%  
70 6% 27%  
71 5% 20%  
72 5% 15%  
73 3% 11%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.3%  
33 1.3% 98.6%  
34 2% 97%  
35 3% 95%  
36 5% 92%  
37 6% 87%  
38 8% 80%  
39 9% 73%  
40 10% 64%  
41 10% 54% Median
42 10% 44%  
43 8% 35%  
44 7% 26%  
45 6% 19%  
46 4% 14%  
47 3% 9%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.9% 99.7%  
13 2% 98.8%  
14 5% 97%  
15 8% 92%  
16 11% 84%  
17 13% 72%  
18 14% 59% Median
19 13% 45%  
20 11% 31%  
21 8% 21% Last Result
22 6% 13%  
23 3% 7%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 130 0% 123–138 120–140 119–142 115–145
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 112 0% 105–119 103–121 101–123 97–127
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 89 0% 82–96 80–98 79–100 76–104
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 0% 65–77 63–79 61–81 58–84

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.5%  
116 0.3% 99.3%  
117 0.6% 99.0%  
118 0.9% 98%  
119 1.2% 98%  
120 2% 96%  
121 2% 95%  
122 2% 93%  
123 3% 91%  
124 5% 87%  
125 5% 83%  
126 5% 78%  
127 6% 73%  
128 6% 67%  
129 7% 61%  
130 7% 54% Median
131 7% 47%  
132 7% 41%  
133 6% 34%  
134 6% 28%  
135 5% 22%  
136 4% 18%  
137 3% 14%  
138 3% 11%  
139 2% 8%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.2% 4%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.2%  
145 0.3% 0.8%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.4% 99.1%  
100 0.9% 98.7%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 91%  
106 5% 88%  
107 5% 83%  
108 5% 78%  
109 6% 73%  
110 6% 67%  
111 8% 61%  
112 8% 53% Median
113 6% 44%  
114 6% 38%  
115 7% 32%  
116 5% 26%  
117 5% 21%  
118 4% 15%  
119 3% 12%  
120 2% 9%  
121 2% 6%  
122 1.4% 4%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.2%  
126 0.3% 0.8%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.5%  
77 0.6% 99.2%  
78 0.9% 98.6%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 4% 89%  
84 5% 85%  
85 5% 80%  
86 7% 75%  
87 6% 68%  
88 8% 62%  
89 7% 54% Median
90 7% 47%  
91 7% 40%  
92 7% 33%  
93 5% 26%  
94 5% 21%  
95 4% 16%  
96 3% 12%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 1.3% 4%  
100 1.0% 3%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.3%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 0.7% 99.1%  
61 1.0% 98%  
62 1.5% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 5% 87%  
67 6% 82%  
68 7% 75%  
69 8% 68%  
70 8% 61%  
71 8% 53% Median
72 8% 45%  
73 8% 36%  
74 6% 29%  
75 5% 22%  
76 5% 17%  
77 4% 12%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations