Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 1–30 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 113 106–120 104–122 102–123 99–127
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 79 73–85 71–87 70–89 67–92
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 65–77 63–78 62–80 59–83
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 50 45–55 43–57 42–58 40–61

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.7% 99.0%  
102 1.1% 98%  
103 1.5% 97%  
104 2% 96%  
105 3% 94%  
106 3% 91%  
107 4% 88%  
108 6% 83%  
109 6% 78%  
110 6% 72% Last Result
111 7% 65%  
112 7% 58%  
113 8% 51% Median
114 8% 44%  
115 8% 36%  
116 6% 29%  
117 5% 23%  
118 4% 18%  
119 3% 13%  
120 3% 10%  
121 2% 7%  
122 2% 5%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.6% 1.4%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 99.3%  
69 1.0% 98.7%  
70 1.5% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 94%  
73 4% 91%  
74 5% 87%  
75 6% 82%  
76 7% 76%  
77 8% 69%  
78 8% 61%  
79 8% 53% Median
80 8% 44%  
81 7% 36%  
82 7% 29%  
83 6% 23%  
84 5% 17%  
85 4% 12%  
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 99.3%  
61 1.0% 98.7%  
62 1.5% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 5% 87%  
67 7% 81%  
68 8% 75%  
69 8% 67%  
70 9% 59%  
71 8% 50% Median
72 8% 42%  
73 7% 34%  
74 6% 27%  
75 5% 20%  
76 4% 15%  
77 3% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 0.9% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 4% 94%  
45 5% 91%  
46 7% 86%  
47 8% 79%  
48 9% 71%  
49 10% 62%  
50 10% 52% Median
51 9% 43%  
52 8% 33%  
53 7% 25%  
54 6% 18%  
55 4% 13% Last Result
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 120 0% 114–127 112–129 110–131 107–135
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 0% 65–77 63–78 62–80 59–83

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.5% 99.2%  
109 0.8% 98.7%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 4% 90%  
115 4% 86%  
116 5% 82%  
117 6% 77%  
118 7% 71%  
119 7% 64%  
120 7% 57%  
121 7% 49% Median
122 7% 42%  
123 7% 35%  
124 6% 29%  
125 5% 23%  
126 4% 18%  
127 3% 13%  
128 3% 10%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.1% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.5% 1.4%  
134 0.3% 0.8%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 99.3%  
61 1.0% 98.7%  
62 1.5% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 5% 87%  
67 7% 81%  
68 8% 75%  
69 8% 67%  
70 9% 59%  
71 8% 50% Median
72 8% 42%  
73 7% 34%  
74 6% 27%  
75 5% 20%  
76 4% 15%  
77 3% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations