Opinion Poll by INSCOP for News.ro, 23 October–2 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 29.5% 27.7–31.3% 27.3–31.8% 26.8–32.2% 26.0–33.1%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 20.2% 18.7–21.8% 18.3–22.3% 17.9–22.7% 17.2–23.5%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 18.4% 16.9–19.9% 16.5–20.4% 16.2–20.8% 15.5–21.5%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.1% 12.8–15.5% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.3% 11.6–17.0%
Partidul S.O.S. România 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.6% 2.9–6.1%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
PRO România 4.1% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Forța Dreptei 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 108 98–112 97–113 96–115 94–120
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 69 66–78 65–79 65–80 61–85
Partidul Național Liberal 93 68 61–73 57–75 57–76 56–78
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 52 47–55 45–57 43–59 41–61
Partidul S.O.S. România 0 0 0–18 0–18 0–19 0–20
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 15 11–17 10–18 10–18 8–20
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.5% 99.5%  
95 0.5% 99.1%  
96 3% 98.5%  
97 2% 96%  
98 5% 94%  
99 2% 90%  
100 3% 88%  
101 8% 85%  
102 8% 76%  
103 2% 68%  
104 2% 66%  
105 4% 64%  
106 4% 60%  
107 6% 56%  
108 6% 50% Median
109 5% 44%  
110 22% 39% Last Result
111 8% 18%  
112 3% 10%  
113 2% 7%  
114 2% 5%  
115 0.8% 3%  
116 0.7% 2%  
117 0.2% 1.4%  
118 0.4% 1.2%  
119 0.3% 0.8%  
120 0.1% 0.5%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.1% 99.5%  
63 0.1% 99.4%  
64 1.3% 99.3%  
65 6% 98%  
66 21% 92%  
67 8% 71%  
68 3% 62%  
69 9% 59% Median
70 4% 49%  
71 4% 46%  
72 3% 41%  
73 1.3% 38%  
74 4% 37%  
75 3% 33%  
76 9% 30%  
77 7% 20%  
78 5% 13%  
79 4% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.1% 1.1%  
84 0.2% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 4% 99.1%  
58 2% 95%  
59 1.5% 93%  
60 1.5% 92%  
61 1.2% 90%  
62 7% 89%  
63 4% 82%  
64 11% 78%  
65 5% 67%  
66 3% 62%  
67 3% 59%  
68 9% 56% Median
69 25% 47%  
70 7% 22%  
71 2% 14%  
72 2% 12%  
73 2% 10%  
74 1.0% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.3%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 1.3% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 2% 93%  
47 10% 91%  
48 4% 80%  
49 11% 76%  
50 5% 65%  
51 11% 61%  
52 21% 50% Median
53 7% 29%  
54 6% 22%  
55 7% 16% Last Result
56 2% 9%  
57 3% 7%  
58 1.2% 4%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 0.4% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 0% 15%  
8 0% 15%  
9 0% 15%  
10 0% 15%  
11 0% 15%  
12 0% 15%  
13 0% 15%  
14 0% 15%  
15 0% 15%  
16 0% 15%  
17 4% 15%  
18 7% 11%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.5%  
10 5% 98.9%  
11 10% 94%  
12 8% 84%  
13 9% 76%  
14 8% 67%  
15 37% 58% Median
16 10% 21%  
17 4% 11%  
18 6% 7%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 133 0% 123–138 122–140 119–142 115–144
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 133 0% 123–138 122–140 119–142 115–144
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 117 0% 110–124 108–126 107–129 102–131
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 117 0% 110–124 108–126 107–129 102–131
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 108 0% 98–112 97–113 96–115 94–120
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 82 0% 73–87 72–89 70–90 67–91
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 82 0% 73–87 72–89 70–90 67–91
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 68 0% 61–73 57–75 57–76 56–78
Partidul Național Liberal 93 68 0% 61–73 57–75 57–76 56–78
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 52 0% 47–55 45–57 43–59 41–61

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.2%  
117 0.3% 99.1%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 0.6% 97%  
121 1.2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 4% 94%  
124 1.1% 89%  
125 4% 88%  
126 2% 85%  
127 5% 83%  
128 7% 78%  
129 3% 72%  
130 3% 68%  
131 5% 65%  
132 8% 60%  
133 4% 52%  
134 7% 48%  
135 2% 41% Median
136 21% 38%  
137 3% 18%  
138 6% 14%  
139 0.8% 9%  
140 4% 8%  
141 1.3% 4%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.7% 1.2%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.2%  
117 0.3% 99.1%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 0.6% 97%  
121 1.2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 4% 94%  
124 1.1% 89%  
125 4% 88%  
126 2% 85%  
127 5% 83%  
128 7% 78%  
129 3% 72%  
130 3% 68%  
131 5% 65%  
132 8% 60%  
133 4% 52%  
134 7% 48%  
135 2% 41% Median
136 21% 38%  
137 3% 18%  
138 6% 14%  
139 0.8% 9%  
140 4% 8%  
141 1.3% 4%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.7% 1.2%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.3%  
104 0.2% 99.2%  
105 0.8% 98.9%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 3% 97%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 1.2% 90%  
112 4% 89%  
113 7% 85%  
114 4% 78%  
115 1.4% 74%  
116 9% 73%  
117 14% 64%  
118 3% 49%  
119 1.2% 46%  
120 3% 45% Median
121 23% 42%  
122 5% 19%  
123 3% 14%  
124 2% 11%  
125 3% 9%  
126 3% 7%  
127 0.5% 4%  
128 0.4% 3%  
129 0.6% 3%  
130 1.4% 2%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.3%  
104 0.2% 99.2%  
105 0.8% 98.9%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 3% 97%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 1.2% 90%  
112 4% 89%  
113 7% 85%  
114 4% 78%  
115 1.4% 74%  
116 9% 73%  
117 14% 64%  
118 3% 49%  
119 1.2% 46%  
120 3% 45% Median
121 23% 42%  
122 5% 19%  
123 3% 14%  
124 2% 11%  
125 3% 9%  
126 3% 7%  
127 0.5% 4%  
128 0.4% 3%  
129 0.6% 3%  
130 1.4% 2%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.5% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.1%  
96 3% 98.5%  
97 2% 96%  
98 5% 94%  
99 2% 90%  
100 3% 88%  
101 8% 85%  
102 8% 76%  
103 2% 68%  
104 2% 66%  
105 4% 64%  
106 4% 60%  
107 6% 56%  
108 6% 50% Median
109 5% 44%  
110 22% 39% Last Result
111 8% 18%  
112 3% 10%  
113 2% 7%  
114 2% 5%  
115 0.8% 3%  
116 0.7% 2%  
117 0.2% 1.4%  
118 0.4% 1.2%  
119 0.3% 0.8%  
120 0.1% 0.5%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 0.9% 98.8%  
70 2% 98%  
71 0.9% 96%  
72 3% 95%  
73 2% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 1.2% 87%  
76 6% 86%  
77 8% 80%  
78 1.3% 71%  
79 6% 70%  
80 5% 64%  
81 5% 60%  
82 5% 54%  
83 3% 49% Median
84 26% 45%  
85 2% 19%  
86 2% 17%  
87 6% 15%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 6%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.8% 1.1%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 0.9% 98.8%  
70 2% 98%  
71 0.9% 96%  
72 3% 95%  
73 2% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 1.2% 87%  
76 6% 86%  
77 8% 80%  
78 1.3% 71%  
79 6% 70%  
80 5% 64%  
81 5% 60%  
82 5% 54%  
83 3% 49% Median
84 26% 45%  
85 2% 19%  
86 2% 17%  
87 6% 15%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 6%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.8% 1.1%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 4% 99.1%  
58 2% 95%  
59 1.5% 93%  
60 1.5% 92%  
61 1.2% 90%  
62 7% 89%  
63 4% 82%  
64 11% 78%  
65 5% 67%  
66 3% 62%  
67 3% 59%  
68 9% 56% Median
69 25% 47%  
70 7% 22%  
71 2% 14%  
72 2% 12%  
73 2% 10%  
74 1.0% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 4% 99.1%  
58 2% 95%  
59 1.5% 93%  
60 1.5% 92%  
61 1.2% 90%  
62 7% 89%  
63 4% 82%  
64 11% 78%  
65 5% 67%  
66 3% 62%  
67 3% 59%  
68 9% 56% Median
69 25% 47%  
70 7% 22%  
71 2% 14%  
72 2% 12%  
73 2% 10%  
74 1.0% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.3%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 1.3% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 2% 93%  
47 10% 91%  
48 4% 80%  
49 11% 76%  
50 5% 65%  
51 11% 61%  
52 21% 50% Median
53 7% 29%  
54 6% 22%  
55 7% 16% Last Result
56 2% 9%  
57 3% 7%  
58 1.2% 4%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 0.4% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations