Opinion Poll by INSCOP for News.ro, 20–27 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 30.4% 28.7–32.3% 28.2–32.8% 27.8–33.2% 26.9–34.1%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 20.3% 18.8–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 18.0–22.8% 17.3–23.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 19.7% 18.2–21.3% 17.8–21.8% 17.5–22.2% 16.8–23.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.1–6.7% 3.7–7.2%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.6–2.5%
Forța Dreptei 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 103 96–111 94–113 94–116 92–118
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 65–76 62–78 61–79 58–82
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 68 62–74 60–75 60–76 57–80
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 41 35–45 35–47 35–48 33–50
Partidul S.O.S. România 0 17 0–20 0–22 0–22 0–24
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 14–20 13–20 13–22 12–23
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.2% 99.6%  
93 0.8% 99.4%  
94 6% 98.6%  
95 1.2% 92%  
96 3% 91%  
97 1.1% 88%  
98 4% 87%  
99 3% 83%  
100 2% 80%  
101 5% 77%  
102 4% 73%  
103 21% 69% Median
104 7% 47%  
105 3% 40%  
106 3% 38%  
107 2% 35%  
108 2% 33%  
109 6% 31%  
110 4% 24% Last Result
111 11% 20%  
112 0.8% 9%  
113 4% 8%  
114 0.4% 4%  
115 1.3% 4%  
116 1.5% 3%  
117 0.1% 1.2%  
118 0.6% 1.0%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 1.4% 95%  
63 1.2% 94%  
64 2% 93%  
65 3% 91%  
66 2% 88%  
67 9% 86%  
68 3% 77%  
69 4% 75%  
70 6% 71%  
71 23% 65% Median
72 16% 43%  
73 9% 26%  
74 3% 18%  
75 2% 14%  
76 2% 12%  
77 5% 10%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 99.3%  
59 0.9% 98.6%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 95%  
62 4% 92%  
63 2% 88%  
64 3% 86%  
65 2% 83%  
66 4% 81%  
67 26% 77%  
68 16% 51% Median
69 3% 35%  
70 2% 32%  
71 8% 30%  
72 4% 22%  
73 7% 18%  
74 1.5% 11%  
75 7% 10%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.3% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 1.0%  
79 0.1% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.6%  
34 0.6% 98.8%  
35 20% 98%  
36 4% 79%  
37 5% 75%  
38 5% 70%  
39 4% 65%  
40 9% 61%  
41 12% 52% Median
42 6% 41%  
43 8% 35%  
44 5% 27%  
45 13% 22%  
46 1.1% 9%  
47 5% 8%  
48 1.1% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.5%  
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 0% 60%  
11 0% 60%  
12 0% 60%  
13 0% 60%  
14 0% 60%  
15 0% 60%  
16 0.1% 60%  
17 23% 60% Median
18 12% 37%  
19 9% 25%  
20 7% 16%  
21 4% 9%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.8%  
12 1.2% 99.6%  
13 5% 98%  
14 4% 94%  
15 10% 90%  
16 25% 79%  
17 12% 54% Median
18 6% 43%  
19 25% 36%  
20 6% 11%  
21 2% 5% Last Result
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 128 0% 122–137 118–139 118–142 114–144
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 128 0% 122–137 118–139 118–142 114–144
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 111 0% 105–118 102–122 100–123 97–125
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 111 0% 105–118 102–122 100–123 97–125
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 103 0% 96–111 94–113 94–116 92–118
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 88 0% 82–94 79–96 78–96 74–100
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 88 0% 82–94 79–96 78–96 74–100
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 71 0% 65–76 62–78 61–79 58–82
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 0% 65–76 62–78 61–79 58–82
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 41 0% 35–45 35–47 35–48 33–50

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.5% 99.7%  
115 0.7% 99.1%  
116 0.6% 98%  
117 0.3% 98%  
118 3% 98%  
119 0.9% 94%  
120 0.9% 93%  
121 1.5% 92%  
122 5% 91%  
123 4% 86%  
124 2% 82%  
125 20% 80%  
126 5% 59%  
127 3% 54%  
128 6% 51%  
129 8% 45% Median
130 4% 37%  
131 4% 34%  
132 2% 30%  
133 12% 27%  
134 2% 16%  
135 3% 14%  
136 1.1% 11%  
137 2% 10%  
138 1.5% 8%  
139 4% 7%  
140 0.2% 3%  
141 0.2% 3%  
142 0.1% 3%  
143 2% 2%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.3% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.5% 99.7%  
115 0.7% 99.1%  
116 0.6% 98%  
117 0.3% 98%  
118 3% 98%  
119 0.9% 94%  
120 0.9% 93%  
121 1.5% 92%  
122 5% 91%  
123 4% 86%  
124 2% 82%  
125 20% 80%  
126 5% 59%  
127 3% 54%  
128 6% 51%  
129 8% 45% Median
130 4% 37%  
131 4% 34%  
132 2% 30%  
133 12% 27%  
134 2% 16%  
135 3% 14%  
136 1.1% 11%  
137 2% 10%  
138 1.5% 8%  
139 4% 7%  
140 0.2% 3%  
141 0.2% 3%  
142 0.1% 3%  
143 2% 2%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.3% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.9% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 98.9%  
99 0.4% 98.5%  
100 0.6% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 1.0% 93%  
105 6% 92%  
106 19% 87%  
107 5% 68%  
108 4% 63%  
109 3% 59%  
110 5% 56%  
111 2% 51%  
112 4% 49% Median
113 11% 46%  
114 3% 34%  
115 4% 31%  
116 2% 28%  
117 15% 26%  
118 1.5% 11%  
119 0.6% 9%  
120 3% 9%  
121 0.4% 6%  
122 0.5% 5%  
123 3% 5%  
124 1.2% 2%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.9% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 98.9%  
99 0.4% 98.5%  
100 0.6% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 1.0% 93%  
105 6% 92%  
106 19% 87%  
107 5% 68%  
108 4% 63%  
109 3% 59%  
110 5% 56%  
111 2% 51%  
112 4% 49% Median
113 11% 46%  
114 3% 34%  
115 4% 31%  
116 2% 28%  
117 15% 26%  
118 1.5% 11%  
119 0.6% 9%  
120 3% 9%  
121 0.4% 6%  
122 0.5% 5%  
123 3% 5%  
124 1.2% 2%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.2% 99.6%  
93 0.8% 99.4%  
94 6% 98.6%  
95 1.2% 92%  
96 3% 91%  
97 1.1% 88%  
98 4% 87%  
99 3% 83%  
100 2% 80%  
101 5% 77%  
102 4% 73%  
103 21% 69% Median
104 7% 47%  
105 3% 40%  
106 3% 38%  
107 2% 35%  
108 2% 33%  
109 6% 31%  
110 4% 24% Last Result
111 11% 20%  
112 0.8% 9%  
113 4% 8%  
114 0.4% 4%  
115 1.3% 4%  
116 1.5% 3%  
117 0.1% 1.2%  
118 0.6% 1.0%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.2% 99.2%  
77 1.2% 99.0%  
78 3% 98%  
79 1.2% 95%  
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 92%  
82 3% 90%  
83 6% 87%  
84 4% 81%  
85 2% 76%  
86 4% 75%  
87 8% 70%  
88 19% 62% Median
89 2% 43%  
90 22% 41%  
91 3% 19%  
92 3% 16%  
93 3% 13%  
94 2% 10%  
95 0.9% 8%  
96 5% 7%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.3% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.4%  
100 0.9% 1.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.2% 99.2%  
77 1.2% 99.0%  
78 3% 98%  
79 1.2% 95%  
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 92%  
82 3% 90%  
83 6% 87%  
84 4% 81%  
85 2% 76%  
86 4% 75%  
87 8% 70%  
88 19% 62% Median
89 2% 43%  
90 22% 41%  
91 3% 19%  
92 3% 16%  
93 3% 13%  
94 2% 10%  
95 0.9% 8%  
96 5% 7%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.3% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.4%  
100 0.9% 1.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 1.4% 95%  
63 1.2% 94%  
64 2% 93%  
65 3% 91%  
66 2% 88%  
67 9% 86%  
68 3% 77%  
69 4% 75%  
70 6% 71%  
71 23% 65% Median
72 16% 43%  
73 9% 26%  
74 3% 18%  
75 2% 14%  
76 2% 12%  
77 5% 10%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 1.4% 95%  
63 1.2% 94%  
64 2% 93%  
65 3% 91%  
66 2% 88%  
67 9% 86%  
68 3% 77%  
69 4% 75%  
70 6% 71%  
71 23% 65% Median
72 16% 43%  
73 9% 26%  
74 3% 18%  
75 2% 14%  
76 2% 12%  
77 5% 10%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.6%  
34 0.6% 98.8%  
35 20% 98%  
36 4% 79%  
37 5% 75%  
38 5% 70%  
39 4% 65%  
40 9% 61%  
41 12% 52% Median
42 6% 41%  
43 8% 35%  
44 5% 27%  
45 13% 22%  
46 1.1% 9%  
47 5% 8%  
48 1.1% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.5%  
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations