Opinion Poll by Verifield, 24–28 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 31.7% 30.0–33.6% 29.5–34.1% 29.0–34.6% 28.2–35.4%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 21.2% 19.7–22.8% 19.2–23.3% 18.9–23.7% 18.2–24.5%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.2% 12.4–18.0%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 12.9% 11.7–14.3% 11.3–14.7% 11.1–15.0% 10.5–15.7%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.0%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.4–5.3%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 1.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 3.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 106 101–112 99–115 97–115 95–119
Partidul Social Democrat 86 73 67–77 66–78 64–79 61–82
Partidul Național Liberal 49 51 46–55 45–57 44–59 42–62
Uniunea Salvați România 40 42 38–47 38–49 37–50 36–52
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 23 20–26 19–28 19–28 18–30
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 16 14–20 13–20 13–21 11–23
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0–17
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.7% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 98.9%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.0% 96%  
99 3% 95%  
100 1.4% 92%  
101 5% 91%  
102 6% 85%  
103 5% 79%  
104 14% 75%  
105 3% 61%  
106 9% 58% Median
107 3% 49%  
108 13% 46%  
109 4% 33%  
110 4% 29%  
111 6% 24%  
112 8% 18%  
113 3% 10%  
114 1.1% 7%  
115 3% 6%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.5% 2%  
118 0.6% 1.1%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.3%  
63 0.6% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.3% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 4% 93%  
68 5% 90%  
69 8% 84%  
70 6% 77%  
71 6% 70%  
72 14% 64%  
73 6% 50% Median
74 12% 44%  
75 14% 32%  
76 7% 18%  
77 3% 11%  
78 4% 8%  
79 3% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.0%  
44 3% 98%  
45 3% 95%  
46 4% 92%  
47 8% 88%  
48 6% 80%  
49 13% 74% Last Result
50 8% 61%  
51 17% 54% Median
52 9% 37%  
53 8% 28%  
54 7% 20%  
55 3% 13%  
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 6%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.2% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 4% 99.1%  
38 8% 95%  
39 6% 87%  
40 10% 81% Last Result
41 13% 71%  
42 9% 57% Median
43 10% 48%  
44 14% 38%  
45 6% 24%  
46 5% 18%  
47 5% 14%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 1.1% 99.6%  
19 4% 98%  
20 6% 95%  
21 12% 89%  
22 21% 76%  
23 14% 56% Median
24 22% 42% Last Result
25 5% 20%  
26 6% 15%  
27 3% 9%  
28 3% 6%  
29 0.9% 2%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.5%  
13 5% 98%  
14 13% 93%  
15 19% 80%  
16 13% 61% Median
17 15% 49%  
18 15% 34%  
19 9% 19%  
20 6% 10%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.2% 2% Last Result
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Median
1 0% 1.5%  
2 0% 1.5%  
3 0% 1.5%  
4 0% 1.5%  
5 0% 1.5%  
6 0% 1.5%  
7 0% 1.5%  
8 0% 1.5%  
9 0% 1.5%  
10 0% 1.5%  
11 0% 1.5%  
12 0% 1.5%  
13 0% 1.5%  
14 0% 1.5%  
15 0% 1.5%  
16 0.8% 1.5%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 182 99.7% 175–188 174–189 172–191 168–194
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 166 52% 159–171 157–173 155–174 150–178
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 140 0% 133–146 131–147 129–149 126–152
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 124 0% 116–129 115–130 112–131 109–133
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 116 0% 110–120 106–122 106–124 101–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 110 0% 104–115 102–117 101–119 98–122
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 106 0% 101–112 99–115 97–115 95–119
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 93 0% 87–99 86–100 85–102 82–105
Partidul Social Democrat 86 73 0% 67–77 66–78 64–79 61–82
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 67 0% 62–73 61–75 59–75 58–78
Partidul Național Liberal 49 51 0% 46–55 45–57 44–59 42–62

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0.2% 100%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0.1% 99.7% Majority
167 0.1% 99.6%  
168 0.3% 99.5%  
169 0.4% 99.2%  
170 0.3% 98.8%  
171 0.5% 98.6%  
172 1.1% 98%  
173 0.7% 97%  
174 3% 96%  
175 3% 93%  
176 2% 90%  
177 3% 88%  
178 3% 85%  
179 11% 81%  
180 6% 70%  
181 8% 64%  
182 9% 56% Median
183 5% 48%  
184 13% 43%  
185 4% 30%  
186 8% 26%  
187 6% 19%  
188 5% 12%  
189 3% 7%  
190 1.2% 5%  
191 2% 3%  
192 0.6% 2%  
193 0.6% 1.2%  
194 0.3% 0.7%  
195 0.2% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0.2% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.4% 99.2%  
153 0.7% 98.8%  
154 0.5% 98%  
155 0.4% 98%  
156 1.1% 97%  
157 3% 96%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 91%  
160 4% 89%  
161 7% 86%  
162 5% 78%  
163 3% 73%  
164 9% 71%  
165 9% 62%  
166 10% 52% Median, Majority
167 4% 43%  
168 8% 39%  
169 3% 31%  
170 15% 28%  
171 3% 12%  
172 1.2% 9%  
173 5% 8%  
174 2% 3%  
175 0.6% 2% Last Result
176 0.6% 1.3%  
177 0.2% 0.7%  
178 0.3% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.2% 100%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.5% 99.6%  
127 0.2% 99.0%  
128 0.9% 98.8%  
129 1.0% 98%  
130 0.6% 97%  
131 2% 96%  
132 1.5% 94%  
133 4% 92%  
134 5% 88%  
135 2% 83%  
136 10% 81%  
137 4% 71%  
138 7% 67%  
139 6% 60%  
140 12% 54% Median
141 6% 43%  
142 11% 37%  
143 5% 26%  
144 4% 22%  
145 3% 18%  
146 8% 15%  
147 3% 7%  
148 1.0% 4%  
149 1.2% 3%  
150 0.8% 1.5%  
151 0.1% 0.6%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 0.4% 99.3%  
111 0.5% 98.9%  
112 0.9% 98%  
113 1.1% 97%  
114 0.9% 96%  
115 1.5% 95%  
116 4% 94%  
117 3% 90%  
118 8% 87%  
119 6% 79%  
120 7% 72%  
121 3% 66%  
122 5% 63%  
123 4% 58%  
124 5% 54% Median
125 7% 49%  
126 16% 41%  
127 7% 26%  
128 8% 19%  
129 4% 11%  
130 4% 7%  
131 0.5% 3%  
132 1.4% 2%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.4%  
103 0.5% 99.3%  
104 0.4% 98.8%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 3% 98%  
107 0.9% 95%  
108 2% 94%  
109 2% 92%  
110 3% 90%  
111 9% 88%  
112 19% 79%  
113 4% 60%  
114 3% 56%  
115 2% 53% Median
116 6% 51%  
117 12% 45%  
118 5% 33%  
119 17% 28%  
120 2% 11%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.1% 5%  
124 3% 4%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 0.6% 98.7%  
101 3% 98%  
102 1.2% 95%  
103 2% 94%  
104 5% 93%  
105 7% 87%  
106 4% 80%  
107 5% 77%  
108 3% 72%  
109 14% 69% Median
110 16% 55%  
111 8% 38% Last Result
112 5% 30%  
113 5% 25%  
114 6% 20%  
115 5% 14%  
116 4% 10%  
117 1.4% 6%  
118 2% 4%  
119 1.1% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.1%  
122 0.2% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.7% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 98.9%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.0% 96%  
99 3% 95%  
100 1.4% 92%  
101 5% 91%  
102 6% 85%  
103 5% 79%  
104 14% 75%  
105 3% 61%  
106 9% 58% Median
107 3% 49%  
108 13% 46%  
109 4% 33%  
110 4% 29%  
111 6% 24%  
112 8% 18%  
113 3% 10%  
114 1.1% 7%  
115 3% 6%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.5% 2%  
118 0.6% 1.1%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 1.0% 98.9%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 4% 97%  
87 5% 93%  
88 2% 88%  
89 4% 86% Last Result
90 7% 82%  
91 5% 75%  
92 13% 69%  
93 8% 56% Median
94 11% 48%  
95 13% 38%  
96 4% 25%  
97 3% 21%  
98 5% 17%  
99 6% 12%  
100 2% 6%  
101 0.7% 4%  
102 0.9% 3%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.2%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.3%  
63 0.6% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.3% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 4% 93%  
68 5% 90%  
69 8% 84%  
70 6% 77%  
71 6% 70%  
72 14% 64%  
73 6% 50% Median
74 12% 44%  
75 14% 32%  
76 7% 18%  
77 3% 11%  
78 4% 8%  
79 3% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 1.4% 98.6%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 8% 94%  
63 5% 86%  
64 7% 81%  
65 11% 74%  
66 5% 62%  
67 16% 57% Median
68 4% 41%  
69 5% 37%  
70 14% 32%  
71 2% 18% Last Result
72 5% 15%  
73 2% 10%  
74 3% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.3% 1.2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.0%  
44 3% 98%  
45 3% 95%  
46 4% 92%  
47 8% 88%  
48 6% 80%  
49 13% 74% Last Result
50 8% 61%  
51 17% 54% Median
52 9% 37%  
53 8% 28%  
54 7% 20%  
55 3% 13%  
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 6%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.2% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations