Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség
Voting Intentions
Last result: 6.3% (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.3% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.6–7.5% |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
5.2% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 4.0–6.7% | 3.7–7.1% |
| 5–19 September 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 9–18 September 2025 | Avangarde | 6.0% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.5–7.9% |
| 1–9 September 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 21–23 July 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 4.5% | 4.2–4.8% | 4.1–4.9% | 4.1–5.0% | 3.9–5.2% |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.7–7.1% |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | 4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 4.0% | 3.7–4.3% | 3.6–4.4% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | 3.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 17% | 99.5% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 47% | 83% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 30% | 36% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 6% | 6% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 22 seats (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 | 12–25 |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–23 | 12–25 |
| 5–19 September 2025 | CURS | 16 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–23 |
| 9–18 September 2025 | Avangarde | 20 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 15–27 |
| 1–9 September 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
14 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| 21–23 July 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
17 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 17 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–25 |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | |||||
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–22 |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
22 | 18–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 | 15–29 |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 18 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 12–24 |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 16 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 11–23 |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | |||||
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 95% | |
| 15 | 8% | 90% | |
| 16 | 12% | 82% | |
| 17 | 16% | 70% | |
| 18 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 42% | |
| 20 | 11% | 29% | |
| 21 | 7% | 18% | |
| 22 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 23 | 4% | 7% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |