Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség
Voting Intentions
Last result: 6.3% (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% | 4.0–7.0% | 3.6–7.7% |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 4.5% | 4.2–4.8% | 4.1–4.9% | 4.1–5.0% | 3.9–5.2% |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.7–7.1% |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | 4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 4.0% | 3.7–4.3% | 3.6–4.4% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | 3.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 24% | 99.6% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 24% | 31% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 6% | 7% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 22 seats (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17 | 14–22 | 14–24 | 13–25 | 12–28 |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 17 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–25 |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | |||||
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–22 |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol | 22 | 18–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 | 15–29 |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 18 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 12–24 |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 16 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 11–23 |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | |||||
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 9% | 97% | |
| 15 | 15% | 88% | |
| 16 | 13% | 73% | |
| 17 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 10% | 47% | |
| 19 | 8% | 37% | |
| 20 | 8% | 29% | |
| 21 | 7% | 21% | |
| 22 | 6% | 14% | Last Result |
| 23 | 3% | 8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 6% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |