Opinion Poll by FlashData, 24–26 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 26.0% 25.3–26.7% 25.2–26.9% 25.0–27.0% 24.7–27.3%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 19.0% 18.4–19.6% 18.3–19.8% 18.1–19.9% 17.8–20.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 15.0% 14.5–15.5% 14.3–15.7% 14.2–15.8% 14.0–16.1%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 9.0% 8.6–9.4% 8.5–9.6% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 3.0% 2.8–3.3% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 2.0% 1.8–2.2% 1.8–2.3% 1.7–2.3% 1.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 111 109–114 108–115 107–115 106–117
Partidul Social Democrat 86 81 79–84 78–84 78–85 77–86
Partidul Național Liberal 49 64 62–66 61–67 61–68 60–69
Uniunea Salvați România 40 38 37–40 36–41 36–41 35–42
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.6% 99.8%  
107 2% 99.3%  
108 5% 97%  
109 10% 93%  
110 15% 83%  
111 18% 68% Median
112 20% 50%  
113 14% 30%  
114 9% 16%  
115 4% 7%  
116 2% 2%  
117 0.5% 0.7%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 1.3% 99.6%  
78 4% 98%  
79 10% 94%  
80 16% 84%  
81 21% 68% Median
82 20% 47%  
83 14% 27%  
84 8% 12%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.3% 99.7%  
61 4% 98%  
62 11% 94%  
63 18% 83%  
64 24% 65% Median
65 20% 40%  
66 12% 21%  
67 5% 8%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 2% 99.8%  
36 7% 98%  
37 19% 91%  
38 28% 72% Median
39 25% 43%  
40 12% 18% Last Result
41 4% 5%  
42 0.9% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 7% 99.2%  
16 29% 92%  
17 43% 63% Median
18 17% 20%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 201 100% 198–203 197–204 197–205 195–206
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 184 100% 181–186 180–187 180–188 178–189
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 162 6% 160–165 159–166 158–166 157–168
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 146 0% 143–148 142–149 141–150 140–151
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 120 0% 117–122 116–123 116–124 114–125
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 119 0% 117–122 116–123 115–123 114–125
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 111 0% 109–114 108–115 107–115 106–117
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 102 0% 100–105 99–106 99–106 97–108
Partidul Social Democrat 86 81 0% 79–84 78–84 78–85 77–86
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 81 0% 79–83 78–84 77–85 76–86
Partidul Național Liberal 49 64 0% 62–66 61–67 61–68 60–69

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0.1% 100%  
195 0.5% 99.8%  
196 2% 99.3%  
197 4% 98% Last Result
198 9% 93%  
199 14% 84%  
200 20% 70% Median
201 18% 50%  
202 15% 32%  
203 10% 17%  
204 5% 7%  
205 2% 3%  
206 0.6% 0.7%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100% Last Result
176 0% 100%  
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0.4% 99.9%  
179 1.5% 99.4%  
180 4% 98%  
181 8% 94%  
182 14% 86%  
183 17% 73% Median
184 20% 56%  
185 15% 36%  
186 11% 21%  
187 6% 9%  
188 2% 3%  
189 0.8% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.3% 99.9%  
157 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
158 2% 98.8%  
159 5% 96%  
160 11% 91%  
161 16% 80%  
162 19% 64% Median
163 17% 45%  
164 14% 28%  
165 8% 15%  
166 4% 6% Majority
167 2% 2%  
168 0.5% 0.7%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100% Last Result
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.7% 99.7%  
141 2% 99.0%  
142 5% 97%  
143 9% 92%  
144 15% 83%  
145 18% 68% Median
146 18% 50%  
147 14% 32%  
148 10% 17%  
149 5% 8%  
150 2% 3%  
151 0.7% 0.9%  
152 0.2% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.5% 99.8%  
115 2% 99.4%  
116 4% 98%  
117 8% 93%  
118 14% 85%  
119 18% 71% Median
120 18% 53%  
121 16% 34%  
122 10% 18%  
123 5% 8%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.7% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100% Last Result
112 0% 100%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.8% 99.7%  
115 3% 99.0%  
116 6% 96%  
117 11% 91%  
118 17% 79%  
119 19% 63% Median
120 16% 43%  
121 14% 27%  
122 8% 13%  
123 3% 5%  
124 1.4% 2%  
125 0.4% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.6% 99.8%  
107 2% 99.3%  
108 5% 97%  
109 10% 93%  
110 15% 83%  
111 18% 68% Median
112 20% 50%  
113 14% 30%  
114 9% 16%  
115 4% 7%  
116 2% 2%  
117 0.5% 0.7%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100% Last Result
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.5% 99.9%  
98 2% 99.4%  
99 4% 98%  
100 8% 94%  
101 17% 85%  
102 22% 68% Median
103 18% 47%  
104 15% 28%  
105 8% 13%  
106 4% 6%  
107 1.4% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 1.3% 99.6%  
78 4% 98%  
79 10% 94%  
80 16% 84%  
81 21% 68% Median
82 20% 47%  
83 14% 27%  
84 8% 12%  
85 3% 4%  
86 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.1%  
78 6% 97%  
79 13% 90%  
80 19% 77%  
81 22% 59% Median
82 17% 37%  
83 12% 20%  
84 5% 8%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.3% 99.7%  
61 4% 98%  
62 11% 94%  
63 18% 83%  
64 24% 65% Median
65 20% 40%  
66 12% 21%  
67 5% 8%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations