Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 23–28 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 32.0% 30.4–33.7% 29.9–34.2% 29.5–34.6% 28.7–35.4%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9% 17.9–22.3% 17.3–23.0%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 16.0% 14.8–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.8%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.6–17.7%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Forța Dreptei 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 114 107–119 106–121 105–123 101–126
Partidul Social Democrat 86 70 66–76 65–78 64–79 61–81
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 53–62 52–62 50–63 47–65
Uniunea Salvați România 40 53 49–58 48–59 47–61 45–62
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 18 15–20 14–21 14–22 12–24
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0–17 0–18
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0.7% 99.5%  
103 0.7% 98.8%  
104 0.5% 98%  
105 2% 98%  
106 3% 96%  
107 5% 93%  
108 4% 88%  
109 5% 84%  
110 6% 79%  
111 3% 73%  
112 9% 71%  
113 7% 62%  
114 8% 55% Median
115 5% 47%  
116 20% 42%  
117 5% 22%  
118 3% 17%  
119 7% 14%  
120 2% 7%  
121 1.1% 5%  
122 0.8% 4%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.2% 1.2%  
125 0.5% 1.0%  
126 0.3% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 98.9%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 92%  
67 11% 87%  
68 6% 76%  
69 14% 71%  
70 11% 57% Median
71 6% 45%  
72 11% 39%  
73 5% 28%  
74 4% 24%  
75 5% 20%  
76 5% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.2% 1.1%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.4%  
49 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
50 0.8% 98%  
51 1.3% 97%  
52 4% 96%  
53 8% 92%  
54 14% 85%  
55 13% 70%  
56 19% 57% Median
57 8% 38%  
58 5% 30%  
59 4% 26%  
60 7% 22%  
61 5% 15%  
62 6% 10%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 1.0% 98.7%  
47 2% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 6% 90%  
50 5% 84%  
51 9% 79%  
52 7% 70%  
53 13% 63% Median
54 9% 50%  
55 18% 41%  
56 6% 23%  
57 4% 16%  
58 7% 13%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.1% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 1.3% 99.4%  
14 5% 98%  
15 7% 93%  
16 18% 87%  
17 17% 69%  
18 26% 51% Median
19 11% 25%  
20 7% 14%  
21 3% 7%  
22 3% 4% Last Result
23 0.6% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0% 3%  
15 0% 3%  
16 0% 3%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 197 100% 193–205 190–206 188–207 183–210
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 180 99.6% 174–187 172–188 169–190 166–192
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 145 0% 139–150 137–153 136–154 132–157
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 127 0% 122–133 119–135 118–137 115–139
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 127 0% 122–133 120–134 118–136 115–139
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 124 0% 118–131 116–131 115–133 111–136
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 114 0% 107–119 106–121 105–123 101–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 110 0% 104–116 102–117 101–119 98–121
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 74 0% 70–79 68–80 67–81 63–84
Partidul Social Democrat 86 70 0% 66–76 65–78 64–79 61–81
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 0% 53–62 52–62 50–63 47–65

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.3% 99.6%  
184 0.2% 99.3%  
185 0.2% 99.1%  
186 0.6% 98.9%  
187 0.6% 98%  
188 0.5% 98%  
189 2% 97%  
190 1.3% 95%  
191 1.2% 94%  
192 3% 93%  
193 7% 90%  
194 2% 83%  
195 6% 80%  
196 20% 75%  
197 5% 55% Last Result, Median
198 8% 50%  
199 7% 42%  
200 9% 35%  
201 2% 27%  
202 6% 24%  
203 5% 19%  
204 4% 14%  
205 5% 10%  
206 3% 6%  
207 1.4% 3%  
208 0.3% 1.5%  
209 0.7% 1.2%  
210 0.3% 0.5%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0.1% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.7%  
166 0.2% 99.6% Majority
167 0.2% 99.4%  
168 0.8% 99.2%  
169 0.9% 98%  
170 0.5% 97%  
171 1.0% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 2% 94%  
174 2% 92%  
175 1.5% 90% Last Result
176 2% 88%  
177 11% 86%  
178 15% 75%  
179 6% 60% Median
180 9% 54%  
181 6% 46%  
182 9% 40%  
183 3% 31%  
184 5% 28%  
185 5% 23%  
186 6% 17%  
187 6% 11%  
188 2% 6%  
189 2% 4%  
190 1.1% 3%  
191 0.7% 1.4%  
192 0.3% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.2% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.4% 99.2%  
135 1.1% 98.8%  
136 2% 98%  
137 2% 96%  
138 2% 93%  
139 2% 92%  
140 6% 90%  
141 15% 83%  
142 9% 69%  
143 6% 60%  
144 3% 53% Median
145 5% 51%  
146 6% 45%  
147 9% 39%  
148 11% 30%  
149 7% 19%  
150 3% 12%  
151 2% 9%  
152 1.4% 7%  
153 3% 6%  
154 2% 3%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 0.4% 0.9%  
157 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.2% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.2% 99.4%  
117 0.7% 99.2%  
118 1.3% 98.5%  
119 3% 97%  
120 1.1% 95%  
121 2% 94%  
122 2% 91%  
123 11% 89%  
124 14% 78%  
125 9% 64%  
126 4% 55% Median
127 4% 52%  
128 8% 48%  
129 9% 40%  
130 7% 31%  
131 7% 24%  
132 5% 16%  
133 3% 11%  
134 2% 8%  
135 2% 6% Last Result
136 1.4% 4%  
137 1.0% 3%  
138 0.9% 2%  
139 0.3% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0% 99.9% Last Result
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.6%  
116 0.4% 99.2%  
117 0.6% 98.8%  
118 0.8% 98%  
119 1.0% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 3% 94%  
122 5% 91%  
123 7% 86%  
124 7% 79%  
125 4% 72%  
126 9% 68%  
127 16% 59% Median
128 6% 44%  
129 9% 38%  
130 4% 29%  
131 8% 26%  
132 3% 18%  
133 8% 15%  
134 3% 7%  
135 0.9% 4%  
136 0.9% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 1.0% 2%  
139 0.2% 0.7%  
140 0.3% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.2% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.8% 99.2%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 2% 98%  
116 1.5% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 7% 93%  
119 2% 87%  
120 7% 85%  
121 4% 78%  
122 11% 74%  
123 12% 63% Median
124 15% 51%  
125 7% 36%  
126 2% 30% Last Result
127 4% 28%  
128 3% 24%  
129 3% 21%  
130 6% 18%  
131 9% 13%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 1.4% 3%  
134 0.4% 1.1%  
135 0.2% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.2% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0.7% 99.5%  
103 0.7% 98.8%  
104 0.5% 98%  
105 2% 98%  
106 3% 96%  
107 5% 93%  
108 4% 88%  
109 5% 84%  
110 6% 79%  
111 3% 73%  
112 9% 71%  
113 7% 62%  
114 8% 55% Median
115 5% 47%  
116 20% 42%  
117 5% 22%  
118 3% 17%  
119 7% 14%  
120 2% 7%  
121 1.1% 5%  
122 0.8% 4%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.2% 1.2%  
125 0.5% 1.0%  
126 0.3% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100% Last Result
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.3%  
100 0.9% 98.9%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 96%  
103 4% 95%  
104 2% 91%  
105 3% 89%  
106 6% 86%  
107 12% 79%  
108 6% 67%  
109 7% 62% Median
110 11% 55%  
111 14% 44%  
112 4% 30%  
113 7% 26%  
114 3% 19%  
115 5% 16%  
116 5% 10%  
117 1.3% 6%  
118 1.4% 4%  
119 2% 3%  
120 0.8% 1.5%  
121 0.3% 0.7%  
122 0.2% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.2%  
65 0.4% 98.9%  
66 0.7% 98.5%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 3% 94%  
70 7% 91%  
71 10% 84% Last Result
72 12% 74%  
73 8% 62%  
74 13% 54% Median
75 11% 42%  
76 8% 31%  
77 5% 23%  
78 7% 18%  
79 3% 12%  
80 5% 8%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.9% 1.4%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 98.9%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 92%  
67 11% 87%  
68 6% 76%  
69 14% 71%  
70 11% 57% Median
71 6% 45%  
72 11% 39%  
73 5% 28%  
74 4% 24%  
75 5% 20%  
76 5% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.2% 1.1%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.4%  
49 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
50 0.8% 98%  
51 1.3% 97%  
52 4% 96%  
53 8% 92%  
54 14% 85%  
55 13% 70%  
56 19% 57% Median
57 8% 38%  
58 5% 30%  
59 4% 26%  
60 7% 22%  
61 5% 15%  
62 6% 10%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations