Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 26–30 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 38.1% 36.3–39.9% 35.8–40.5% 35.3–40.9% 34.5–41.8%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 17.4% 16.0–18.9% 15.6–19.3% 15.3–19.7% 14.7–20.4%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–19.0%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 12.2% 11.0–13.5% 10.7–13.9% 10.4–14.2% 9.9–14.9%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.3%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 3.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.1–4.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 135 129–141 127–143 125–145 122–148
Partidul Social Democrat 86 62 56–67 55–68 54–70 52–72
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 51–62 50–63 49–64 47–67
Uniunea Salvați România 40 43 39–48 37–49 36–50 35–52
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 16 13–19 12–20 12–20 11–22
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.6% 99.4%  
124 0.7% 98.8%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 2% 97%  
127 1.4% 95%  
128 3% 94%  
129 5% 91%  
130 5% 87%  
131 5% 81%  
132 8% 76%  
133 9% 68%  
134 6% 59%  
135 9% 53% Median
136 8% 43%  
137 5% 36%  
138 4% 30%  
139 8% 26%  
140 4% 18%  
141 4% 13%  
142 3% 9%  
143 2% 7%  
144 2% 5%  
145 1.3% 3%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.2%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.1%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 5% 83%  
59 6% 78%  
60 8% 72%  
61 13% 64%  
62 14% 51% Median
63 6% 37%  
64 6% 30%  
65 5% 24%  
66 9% 19%  
67 5% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 1.2% 99.3%  
49 1.4% 98% Last Result
50 3% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 7% 88%  
53 9% 82%  
54 8% 73%  
55 11% 65%  
56 12% 54% Median
57 8% 42%  
58 6% 35%  
59 6% 29%  
60 4% 23%  
61 5% 19%  
62 5% 13%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.5%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.6%  
36 1.4% 98.9%  
37 3% 97%  
38 4% 95%  
39 7% 91%  
40 8% 85% Last Result
41 9% 77%  
42 12% 68%  
43 12% 57% Median
44 11% 45%  
45 11% 34%  
46 6% 23%  
47 6% 17%  
48 4% 10%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.2% 99.7%  
12 3% 98%  
13 8% 95%  
14 13% 87%  
15 15% 74%  
16 18% 59% Median
17 18% 41%  
18 10% 23%  
19 7% 13%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.3%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 177 98.6% 171–183 168–185 167–187 164–190
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 161 19% 154–167 153–169 151–171 148–174
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 134 0% 127–140 126–142 124–144 121–147
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 118 0% 112–124 110–126 108–128 106–131
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 105 0% 99–111 97–113 96–114 93–117
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 100 0% 93–105 92–107 91–109 88–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 72 0% 67–78 65–79 64–81 62–84
Partidul Social Democrat 86 62 0% 56–67 55–68 54–70 52–72
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 0% 51–62 50–63 49–64 47–67

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 0.3% 99.6%  
165 0.7% 99.3%  
166 0.6% 98.6% Majority
167 1.3% 98%  
168 2% 97%  
169 2% 95%  
170 3% 93%  
171 4% 90%  
172 4% 86%  
173 8% 82%  
174 4% 74%  
175 5% 69%  
176 8% 64%  
177 9% 56% Median
178 6% 47%  
179 9% 41%  
180 8% 31%  
181 5% 24%  
182 5% 19%  
183 5% 13%  
184 3% 8%  
185 1.3% 6%  
186 2% 5%  
187 0.9% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.6% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 0.6%  
191 0.2% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.4% 99.6%  
149 0.5% 99.2%  
150 0.7% 98.7%  
151 1.0% 98%  
152 2% 97%  
153 2% 95%  
154 3% 93%  
155 4% 89%  
156 5% 85%  
157 7% 81%  
158 5% 73%  
159 6% 68%  
160 7% 62%  
161 7% 56% Median
162 11% 49%  
163 6% 38%  
164 7% 32%  
165 5% 24%  
166 5% 19% Majority
167 5% 14%  
168 3% 9%  
169 2% 6%  
170 2% 5%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 0.9% 2%  
173 0.4% 1.2%  
174 0.3% 0.8%  
175 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.4% 99.7%  
122 0.4% 99.3%  
123 0.8% 98.9%  
124 2% 98%  
125 1.0% 96%  
126 3% 95%  
127 3% 92%  
128 3% 90%  
129 6% 86%  
130 7% 81%  
131 6% 74%  
132 8% 68%  
133 6% 60%  
134 9% 54% Median
135 8% 46%  
136 6% 38%  
137 8% 31%  
138 6% 24%  
139 2% 17%  
140 6% 15%  
141 2% 9%  
142 2% 7%  
143 2% 4%  
144 1.0% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.3% 0.7%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.4% 99.6%  
107 0.9% 99.2%  
108 2% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 4% 90%  
113 6% 86%  
114 9% 81%  
115 4% 71%  
116 6% 68%  
117 9% 62%  
118 9% 53% Median
119 6% 43%  
120 8% 38%  
121 4% 29%  
122 5% 25%  
123 6% 20%  
124 5% 14%  
125 3% 10%  
126 2% 6%  
127 2% 4%  
128 0.9% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.0%  
131 0.3% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.6% 99.1%  
95 0.9% 98%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 95%  
98 3% 93%  
99 4% 90%  
100 5% 86%  
101 6% 81%  
102 8% 76%  
103 7% 68%  
104 10% 61%  
105 8% 51% Median
106 5% 42%  
107 10% 37%  
108 6% 27%  
109 5% 21%  
110 5% 16%  
111 3% 11%  
112 2% 8%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.2% 3%  
115 0.9% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.1%  
117 0.2% 0.6%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
90 0.7% 98%  
91 3% 98%  
92 2% 95%  
93 4% 93%  
94 5% 89%  
95 5% 84%  
96 9% 79%  
97 6% 70%  
98 8% 65%  
99 7% 57% Median
100 11% 50%  
101 6% 39%  
102 6% 32%  
103 6% 26%  
104 5% 20%  
105 5% 15%  
106 2% 10%  
107 3% 7%  
108 1.5% 4%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.5% 1.1%  
112 0.2% 0.6%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 1.0% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 3% 90%  
68 6% 87%  
69 8% 80%  
70 8% 73%  
71 8% 65% Last Result
72 12% 58% Median
73 7% 45%  
74 6% 38%  
75 10% 32%  
76 5% 22%  
77 4% 17%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.0%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.1%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 5% 83%  
59 6% 78%  
60 8% 72%  
61 13% 64%  
62 14% 51% Median
63 6% 37%  
64 6% 30%  
65 5% 24%  
66 9% 19%  
67 5% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 1.2% 99.3%  
49 1.4% 98% Last Result
50 3% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 7% 88%  
53 9% 82%  
54 8% 73%  
55 11% 65%  
56 12% 54% Median
57 8% 42%  
58 6% 35%  
59 6% 29%  
60 4% 23%  
61 5% 19%  
62 5% 13%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.5%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations