Opinion Poll by CURS, 4–10 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.5–40.4% 35.1–40.9% 34.2–41.9%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 131 124–138 122–140 120–141 116–145
Partidul Social Democrat 86 69 63–75 62–76 60–77 58–80
Partidul Național Liberal 49 52 47–57 46–58 44–60 42–62
Uniunea Salvați România 40 41 37–46 36–47 35–48 33–51
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 17 14–20 13–21 13–22 12–24
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0–19
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0–17 0–18 0–19

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.3% 99.4%  
118 0.5% 99.1%  
119 0.7% 98.6%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 1.3% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 91%  
125 4% 89%  
126 4% 85%  
127 5% 81%  
128 6% 75%  
129 7% 69%  
130 6% 63%  
131 7% 56% Median
132 7% 49%  
133 8% 42%  
134 6% 34%  
135 6% 27%  
136 5% 21%  
137 4% 16%  
138 3% 12%  
139 3% 9%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.4% 4%  
142 0.9% 2%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.4% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 1.1% 98.6%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 93%  
64 4% 89%  
65 6% 85%  
66 7% 79%  
67 9% 72%  
68 8% 63%  
69 10% 54% Median
70 8% 45%  
71 9% 37%  
72 7% 28%  
73 6% 21%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 1.3% 98.5%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 5% 91%  
48 7% 86%  
49 9% 80% Last Result
50 9% 71%  
51 11% 62%  
52 11% 51% Median
53 8% 40%  
54 9% 32%  
55 8% 23%  
56 4% 16%  
57 4% 11%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 6% 92%  
38 7% 86%  
39 10% 79%  
40 11% 69% Last Result
41 11% 59% Median
42 11% 48%  
43 10% 36%  
44 8% 26%  
45 6% 18%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 1.4% 99.5%  
13 4% 98%  
14 8% 94%  
15 13% 86%  
16 16% 73%  
17 17% 57% Median
18 15% 40%  
19 11% 25%  
20 7% 14%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 3% Last Result
23 0.9% 1.4%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 0% 2%  
16 0.1% 2%  
17 0% 2%  
18 0.7% 2%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0% 8%  
10 0% 8%  
11 0% 8%  
12 0% 8%  
13 0% 8%  
14 0% 8%  
15 0% 8%  
16 2% 8%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 179 98% 171–186 169–188 166–190 162–193
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 162 27% 155–169 152–171 150–173 145–176
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 138 0% 131–145 128–147 126–148 122–151
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 131 0% 124–138 122–140 120–141 116–145
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 121 0% 114–127 112–129 110–131 106–134
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 110 0% 103–117 101–119 100–120 96–123
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 110 0% 104–117 102–119 100–120 97–123
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 93 0% 87–99 85–101 83–103 80–106
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 69 0% 63–74 62–76 60–77 58–80
Partidul Social Democrat 86 69 0% 63–75 62–76 60–77 58–80
Partidul Național Liberal 49 52 0% 47–57 46–58 44–60 42–62

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.5% 98.9%  
165 0.5% 98%  
166 0.7% 98% Majority
167 1.0% 97%  
168 1.0% 96%  
169 1.4% 95%  
170 2% 94%  
171 2% 92%  
172 3% 90%  
173 4% 87%  
174 4% 84%  
175 4% 80%  
176 6% 75%  
177 6% 69%  
178 7% 63%  
179 8% 57% Median
180 7% 49%  
181 7% 42%  
182 6% 35%  
183 6% 29%  
184 5% 22%  
185 5% 17%  
186 4% 12%  
187 3% 9%  
188 2% 6%  
189 1.4% 4%  
190 1.0% 3%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.4% 0.9%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.3% 99.5%  
147 0.3% 99.2%  
148 0.6% 98.9%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 0.9% 98%  
151 0.9% 97%  
152 2% 96%  
153 2% 94%  
154 2% 92%  
155 3% 90%  
156 4% 87%  
157 4% 83%  
158 4% 79%  
159 6% 75%  
160 6% 69%  
161 7% 63%  
162 7% 56% Median
163 7% 48%  
164 7% 41%  
165 7% 34%  
166 6% 27% Majority
167 5% 21%  
168 4% 16%  
169 4% 13%  
170 3% 9%  
171 2% 6%  
172 1.4% 4%  
173 1.0% 3%  
174 0.6% 2%  
175 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
176 0.3% 0.6%  
177 0.2% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.7%  
123 0.3% 99.4%  
124 0.4% 99.1%  
125 0.7% 98.7%  
126 0.8% 98%  
127 1.2% 97%  
128 1.4% 96%  
129 2% 95%  
130 3% 93%  
131 4% 90%  
132 3% 87%  
133 5% 83%  
134 5% 78%  
135 6% 73%  
136 8% 67%  
137 6% 59%  
138 8% 53% Median
139 8% 45%  
140 7% 37%  
141 6% 31%  
142 6% 25%  
143 4% 19%  
144 4% 15%  
145 3% 10%  
146 2% 7%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.2% 3%  
149 0.9% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.2%  
151 0.4% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.3% 99.4%  
118 0.5% 99.1%  
119 0.7% 98.6%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 1.3% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 91%  
125 4% 89%  
126 4% 85%  
127 5% 81%  
128 6% 75%  
129 7% 69%  
130 6% 63%  
131 7% 56% Median
132 7% 49%  
133 8% 42%  
134 6% 34%  
135 6% 27%  
136 5% 21%  
137 4% 16%  
138 3% 12%  
139 3% 9%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.4% 4%  
142 0.9% 2%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.4% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.5% 99.0%  
109 0.7% 98.5%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 3% 91%  
115 4% 88%  
116 5% 84%  
117 6% 79%  
118 6% 73%  
119 6% 66%  
120 8% 60%  
121 7% 52% Median
122 7% 45%  
123 7% 37%  
124 6% 30%  
125 6% 24%  
126 5% 18%  
127 4% 13%  
128 3% 9%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.2% 3%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.1%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.4%  
98 0.5% 99.0%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 2% 95%  
103 3% 93%  
104 4% 90%  
105 5% 86%  
106 6% 81%  
107 6% 75%  
108 7% 69%  
109 7% 62%  
110 8% 55% Median
111 8% 47% Last Result
112 7% 39%  
113 6% 31%  
114 5% 25%  
115 6% 20%  
116 4% 14%  
117 3% 10%  
118 2% 7%  
119 2% 5%  
120 1.1% 3%  
121 0.8% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.3%  
123 0.3% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.2%  
99 0.8% 98.7%  
100 1.2% 98%  
101 1.4% 97%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 4% 91%  
105 4% 87%  
106 5% 83%  
107 7% 77%  
108 7% 71%  
109 6% 64%  
110 8% 58% Median
111 8% 49%  
112 7% 41%  
113 8% 34%  
114 6% 27%  
115 6% 21%  
116 4% 15%  
117 3% 11%  
118 3% 8%  
119 2% 5%  
120 1.5% 4%  
121 0.9% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.3%  
123 0.3% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.4%  
82 0.6% 99.0%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 1.5% 97%  
85 2% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 4% 91%  
88 5% 87%  
89 5% 82% Last Result
90 6% 77%  
91 9% 71%  
92 9% 62%  
93 7% 53% Median
94 7% 46%  
95 9% 39%  
96 7% 30%  
97 5% 23%  
98 5% 18%  
99 5% 14%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 0.5% 1.5%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 0.7% 99.1%  
60 1.1% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 5% 93%  
64 5% 88%  
65 7% 84%  
66 7% 77%  
67 9% 70%  
68 9% 61%  
69 9% 51% Median
70 8% 42%  
71 8% 34% Last Result
72 7% 26%  
73 5% 19%  
74 4% 14%  
75 3% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.4%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 1.1% 98.6%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 93%  
64 4% 89%  
65 6% 85%  
66 7% 79%  
67 9% 72%  
68 8% 63%  
69 10% 54% Median
70 8% 45%  
71 9% 37%  
72 7% 28%  
73 6% 21%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 1.3% 98.5%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 5% 91%  
48 7% 86%  
49 9% 80% Last Result
50 9% 71%  
51 11% 62%  
52 11% 51% Median
53 8% 40%  
54 9% 32%  
55 8% 23%  
56 4% 16%  
57 4% 11%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations