Opinion Poll by FlashData, 10–12 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 38.0% 37.3–38.7% 37.1–38.9% 36.9–39.1% 36.6–39.5%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 18.0% 17.4–18.6% 17.3–18.7% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 16.0% 15.5–16.6% 15.3–16.7% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 16.0% 15.5–16.6% 15.3–16.7% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 4.5% 4.2–4.8% 4.1–4.9% 4.1–5.0% 3.9–5.2%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 1.5% 1.3–1.7% 1.3–1.8% 1.2–1.8% 1.2–1.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 0.5% 0.4–0.6% 0.4–0.7% 0.4–0.7% 0.3–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 129 126–131 126–132 125–132 124–134
Partidul Social Democrat 86 61 59–63 58–63 58–64 57–65
Partidul Național Liberal 49 54 52–56 52–56 51–57 50–58
Uniunea Salvați România 40 54 52–56 51–56 51–57 50–58
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 15 14–16 14–16 13–17 13–17
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0.2% 100%  
124 0.9% 99.7%  
125 3% 98.8%  
126 8% 96%  
127 15% 88%  
128 20% 73%  
129 21% 53% Median
130 15% 32%  
131 10% 16%  
132 4% 6%  
133 1.5% 2%  
134 0.4% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 1.2% 99.8%  
58 5% 98.6%  
59 15% 93%  
60 24% 78%  
61 27% 54% Median
62 17% 27%  
63 8% 10%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.2%  
52 12% 95%  
53 24% 83%  
54 27% 60% Median
55 19% 33%  
56 10% 13%  
57 3% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 5% 99.4%  
52 12% 95%  
53 17% 83%  
54 31% 66% Median
55 24% 35%  
56 7% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.7% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 4% 99.9%  
14 28% 96%  
15 45% 68% Median
16 21% 23%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 183 100% 181–186 180–186 180–187 178–188
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 168 93% 166–171 165–172 165–172 164–173
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 129 0% 127–132 126–132 126–133 125–134
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 129 0% 126–131 126–132 125–132 124–134
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 123 0% 120–125 119–126 119–126 118–128
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 114 0% 112–117 112–118 111–118 110–119
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 115 0% 112–117 112–118 111–118 110–119
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 108 0% 105–110 105–111 104–112 104–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 69 0% 67–71 66–71 66–72 65–73
Partidul Social Democrat 86 61 0% 59–63 58–63 58–64 57–65
Partidul Național Liberal 49 54 0% 52–56 52–56 51–57 50–58

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0.4% 99.9%  
179 1.5% 99.5%  
180 4% 98%  
181 10% 94%  
182 15% 84%  
183 21% 68%  
184 20% 47% Median
185 15% 27%  
186 8% 12%  
187 3% 4%  
188 0.9% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0.1% 100%  
163 0.4% 99.9%  
164 1.5% 99.6%  
165 5% 98%  
166 8% 93% Majority
167 14% 86%  
168 22% 71%  
169 22% 49% Median
170 15% 28%  
171 7% 13%  
172 4% 5%  
173 1.2% 2%  
174 0.3% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
176 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100%  
124 0.3% 99.9%  
125 1.3% 99.7%  
126 4% 98%  
127 10% 94%  
128 15% 84%  
129 20% 69%  
130 21% 49% Median
131 14% 28%  
132 9% 13%  
133 3% 5%  
134 1.1% 1.4%  
135 0.3% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0.2% 100%  
124 0.9% 99.7%  
125 3% 98.8%  
126 8% 96%  
127 15% 88%  
128 20% 73%  
129 21% 53% Median
130 15% 32%  
131 10% 16%  
132 4% 6%  
133 1.5% 2%  
134 0.4% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100% Last Result
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.2% 100%  
118 1.0% 99.8%  
119 4% 98.8%  
120 9% 95%  
121 11% 86%  
122 17% 75%  
123 24% 59% Median
124 22% 35%  
125 7% 13%  
126 3% 6%  
127 2% 2%  
128 0.6% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.2% 100%  
110 0.9% 99.7%  
111 3% 98.8%  
112 8% 96%  
113 14% 88%  
114 26% 73%  
115 20% 48% Median
116 15% 28%  
117 8% 13%  
118 4% 6%  
119 1.3% 2%  
120 0.4% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.2% 100%  
110 0.9% 99.7%  
111 4% 98.8%  
112 7% 95%  
113 16% 88%  
114 20% 72%  
115 20% 52% Median
116 17% 32%  
117 9% 14%  
118 4% 6%  
119 1.1% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100% Last Result
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 4% 99.7%  
105 12% 96%  
106 7% 84%  
107 8% 77%  
108 35% 69% Median
109 24% 34%  
110 4% 10%  
111 3% 7%  
112 3% 3%  
113 0.4% 0.5%  
114 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 2% 99.6%  
66 6% 98%  
67 15% 92%  
68 21% 78%  
69 24% 57% Median
70 20% 33%  
71 9% 13% Last Result
72 4% 4%  
73 0.7% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 1.2% 99.8%  
58 5% 98.6%  
59 15% 93%  
60 24% 78%  
61 27% 54% Median
62 17% 27%  
63 8% 10%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.2%  
52 12% 95%  
53 24% 83%  
54 27% 60% Median
55 19% 33%  
56 10% 13%  
57 3% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations