Opinion Poll by Sociopol for RomâniaTV, 21–23 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 38.0% 36.1–40.0% 35.5–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.1–42.0%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Forța Dreptei 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 130 123–136 123–137 121–140 118–143
Partidul Social Democrat 86 71 67–78 65–79 63–82 61–83
Partidul Național Liberal 49 52 47–56 45–58 44–60 42–61
Uniunea Salvați România 40 41 37–46 36–47 35–48 32–50
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 17 13–20 13–21 13–22 12–24
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.5% 99.5%  
119 0.3% 99.0%  
120 0.3% 98.7%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 9% 96%  
124 4% 86%  
125 7% 82%  
126 3% 75%  
127 4% 72%  
128 2% 68%  
129 10% 66%  
130 9% 56% Median
131 3% 47%  
132 10% 44%  
133 6% 34%  
134 9% 27%  
135 4% 18%  
136 8% 14%  
137 2% 6%  
138 0.9% 5%  
139 0.7% 4%  
140 0.5% 3%  
141 1.2% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.2%  
143 0.4% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 3% 98.9%  
64 0.8% 96%  
65 0.5% 95%  
66 2% 95%  
67 11% 93%  
68 2% 82%  
69 3% 79%  
70 12% 77%  
71 17% 65% Median
72 7% 48%  
73 1.3% 40%  
74 13% 39%  
75 7% 26%  
76 2% 19%  
77 1.3% 17%  
78 7% 16%  
79 5% 8%  
80 0.4% 4%  
81 0.5% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 1.0%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 3% 91%  
48 6% 88%  
49 9% 82% Last Result
50 16% 73%  
51 6% 57%  
52 11% 51% Median
53 15% 40%  
54 4% 26%  
55 7% 22%  
56 5% 15%  
57 4% 10%  
58 1.4% 5%  
59 0.8% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.4% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 0.5% 99.3%  
34 0.6% 98.8%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 5% 87%  
39 10% 82%  
40 10% 72% Last Result
41 14% 62% Median
42 6% 48%  
43 14% 41%  
44 13% 28%  
45 4% 15%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 1.2% 99.7%  
13 9% 98.5%  
14 10% 90%  
15 9% 80%  
16 16% 72%  
17 16% 56% Median
18 10% 41%  
19 16% 31%  
20 9% 15%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.1% 3% Last Result
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 182 99.8% 176–189 175–189 171–191 169–194
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 165 46% 159–171 156–173 155–174 151–178
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 140 0% 135–148 132–150 131–150 127–153
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 130 0% 123–136 123–137 121–140 118–143
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 123 0% 117–131 116–132 115–133 111–137
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 114 0% 107–120 106–122 104–123 100–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 110 0% 103–116 101–118 99–118 96–122
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 93 0% 88–99 84–99 84–100 80–104
Partidul Social Democrat 86 71 0% 67–78 65–79 63–82 61–83
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 69 0% 63–75 62–76 60–76 57–81
Partidul Național Liberal 49 52 0% 47–56 45–58 44–60 42–61

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8% Majority
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.2% 99.7%  
169 0.4% 99.6%  
170 0.4% 99.1%  
171 1.2% 98.7%  
172 0.5% 97%  
173 0.7% 97%  
174 0.9% 96%  
175 2% 95%  
176 8% 94%  
177 4% 86%  
178 9% 81%  
179 6% 73%  
180 10% 66%  
181 3% 56% Median
182 9% 53%  
183 10% 44%  
184 2% 34%  
185 4% 32%  
186 3% 28%  
187 7% 25%  
188 4% 18%  
189 9% 14%  
190 2% 4%  
191 1.0% 3%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.5% 1.0%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.2% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.1% Last Result
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.4% 99.3%  
153 0.4% 98.9%  
154 0.8% 98.5%  
155 1.1% 98%  
156 3% 97%  
157 2% 93%  
158 1.2% 91%  
159 3% 90%  
160 4% 87%  
161 2% 83%  
162 7% 81%  
163 6% 74%  
164 12% 67% Median
165 9% 55%  
166 9% 46% Majority
167 9% 38%  
168 6% 29%  
169 5% 23%  
170 5% 18%  
171 4% 13%  
172 4% 9%  
173 3% 6%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.6% 2% Last Result
176 0.3% 2%  
177 0.5% 1.3%  
178 0.5% 0.8%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.2% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.2% 99.5%  
129 0.3% 99.2%  
130 0.8% 98.9%  
131 2% 98%  
132 2% 96%  
133 0.7% 94%  
134 3% 93%  
135 6% 91%  
136 3% 84%  
137 15% 82%  
138 3% 66%  
139 6% 63%  
140 14% 57% Median
141 4% 43%  
142 3% 39%  
143 8% 36%  
144 6% 28%  
145 2% 22%  
146 6% 20%  
147 2% 14%  
148 5% 12%  
149 0.7% 7%  
150 5% 6%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.3% 1.3%  
153 0.6% 1.1%  
154 0.2% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1% Last Result
158 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.5% 99.5%  
119 0.3% 99.0%  
120 0.3% 98.7%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 9% 96%  
124 4% 86%  
125 7% 82%  
126 3% 75%  
127 4% 72%  
128 2% 68%  
129 10% 66%  
130 9% 56% Median
131 3% 47%  
132 10% 44%  
133 6% 34%  
134 9% 27%  
135 4% 18%  
136 8% 14%  
137 2% 6%  
138 0.9% 5%  
139 0.7% 4%  
140 0.5% 3%  
141 1.2% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.2%  
143 0.4% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.5% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 99.0%  
113 0.5% 98.8%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 2% 98%  
116 3% 96%  
117 6% 93%  
118 3% 87%  
119 2% 84%  
120 3% 82%  
121 10% 79%  
122 10% 69%  
123 17% 60% Median
124 7% 43%  
125 2% 36%  
126 6% 33%  
127 7% 28%  
128 4% 21%  
129 3% 17%  
130 2% 14%  
131 6% 12%  
132 3% 7%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.6% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 98.8%  
103 0.2% 98%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 6% 96%  
107 6% 90%  
108 4% 84%  
109 3% 80%  
110 4% 77%  
111 7% 73%  
112 4% 67% Median
113 9% 62%  
114 14% 54%  
115 8% 40%  
116 5% 32%  
117 4% 27%  
118 7% 23%  
119 5% 17%  
120 4% 12%  
121 3% 8%  
122 2% 5%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 1.4% 99.3%  
99 0.4% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 3% 95%  
103 3% 92%  
104 2% 90%  
105 4% 88%  
106 7% 84%  
107 3% 77%  
108 11% 74%  
109 7% 64%  
110 13% 56% Median
111 4% 44% Last Result
112 11% 40%  
113 9% 29%  
114 2% 19%  
115 7% 17%  
116 1.4% 10%  
117 2% 9%  
118 5% 7%  
119 1.1% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.2% 0.9%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 0.5% 98.9%  
83 0.8% 98%  
84 3% 98%  
85 3% 95%  
86 0.4% 92%  
87 1.1% 92%  
88 5% 90%  
89 7% 85% Last Result
90 5% 78%  
91 0.9% 73%  
92 3% 72%  
93 20% 68% Median
94 19% 49%  
95 8% 29%  
96 1.0% 21%  
97 2% 20%  
98 5% 18%  
99 10% 13%  
100 0.9% 3%  
101 0.2% 2%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.7% 1.0%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 3% 98.9%  
64 0.8% 96%  
65 0.5% 95%  
66 2% 95%  
67 11% 93%  
68 2% 82%  
69 3% 79%  
70 12% 77%  
71 17% 65% Median
72 7% 48%  
73 1.3% 40%  
74 13% 39%  
75 7% 26%  
76 2% 19%  
77 1.3% 17%  
78 7% 16%  
79 5% 8%  
80 0.4% 4%  
81 0.5% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 1.0%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.2% 99.4%  
59 0.4% 99.2%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 4% 96%  
63 7% 92%  
64 6% 85%  
65 5% 79%  
66 3% 74%  
67 4% 71%  
68 6% 67%  
69 25% 61% Median
70 15% 36%  
71 3% 21% Last Result
72 1.2% 17%  
73 0.5% 16%  
74 2% 15%  
75 5% 13%  
76 6% 8%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.7%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 3% 91%  
48 6% 88%  
49 9% 82% Last Result
50 16% 73%  
51 6% 57%  
52 11% 51% Median
53 15% 40%  
54 4% 26%  
55 7% 22%  
56 5% 15%  
57 4% 10%  
58 1.4% 5%  
59 0.8% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.4% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations