Opinion Poll by CURS, 1–14 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 32.0% 30.5–33.5% 30.1–33.9% 29.8–34.3% 29.1–35.0%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 24.0% 22.7–25.4% 22.3–25.8% 22.0–26.1% 21.4–26.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.2–22.0% 17.6–22.6%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.5% 8.2–12.0%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 110 105–115 104–116 102–118 100–120
Partidul Social Democrat 86 82 78–87 77–88 75–89 73–92
Partidul Național Liberal 49 69 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–78
Uniunea Salvați România 40 34 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–41
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.7% 99.3%  
102 1.2% 98.6%  
103 2% 97%  
104 3% 95%  
105 4% 92%  
106 6% 88%  
107 8% 82%  
108 9% 73%  
109 10% 64%  
110 11% 55% Median
111 10% 44%  
112 8% 34%  
113 8% 25%  
114 6% 18%  
115 4% 12%  
116 3% 7%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.2% 3%  
119 0.7% 1.4%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.8%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 5% 92%  
79 7% 86%  
80 9% 79%  
81 11% 70%  
82 11% 59% Median
83 11% 48%  
84 10% 37%  
85 9% 27%  
86 6% 19% Last Result
87 5% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.4%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 5% 94%  
65 7% 90%  
66 8% 83%  
67 11% 74%  
68 11% 63%  
69 12% 52% Median
70 11% 40%  
71 9% 29%  
72 7% 20%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93%  
32 12% 85%  
33 15% 73%  
34 16% 58% Median
35 14% 42%  
36 11% 28%  
37 8% 17%  
38 5% 9%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.2% 2% Last Result
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 6% 97%  
15 14% 91%  
16 20% 77%  
17 21% 58% Median
18 17% 36%  
19 11% 19%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 202 100% 197–207 196–208 194–210 192–212
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 185 100% 180–190 179–192 177–193 175–195
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 168 73% 163–173 161–175 160–176 158–178
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 151 0% 146–156 144–158 143–159 141–161
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 120 0% 115–125 113–126 112–127 110–130
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 116 0% 111–121 110–123 109–124 107–127
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 110 0% 105–115 104–116 102–118 100–120
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 103 0% 98–108 97–109 95–110 93–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 86 0% 81–90 80–92 79–93 76–95
Partidul Social Democrat 86 82 0% 78–87 77–88 75–89 73–92
Partidul Național Liberal 49 69 0% 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–78

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.2% 99.8%  
192 0.3% 99.7%  
193 0.7% 99.3%  
194 1.2% 98.6%  
195 2% 97%  
196 3% 95%  
197 4% 93% Last Result
198 6% 88%  
199 8% 82%  
200 8% 74%  
201 10% 66%  
202 11% 56% Median
203 10% 45%  
204 9% 36%  
205 8% 27%  
206 6% 18%  
207 4% 12%  
208 3% 8%  
209 2% 5%  
210 1.2% 3%  
211 0.7% 1.4%  
212 0.4% 0.7%  
213 0.2% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 99.8%  
175 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
176 0.7% 99.2%  
177 1.4% 98.5%  
178 2% 97%  
179 3% 95%  
180 4% 92%  
181 6% 88%  
182 7% 82%  
183 9% 75%  
184 10% 66%  
185 9% 56% Median
186 10% 47%  
187 9% 37%  
188 7% 27%  
189 7% 21%  
190 5% 14%  
191 3% 9%  
192 3% 6%  
193 1.5% 3%  
194 0.7% 2%  
195 0.5% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
158 0.5% 99.5%  
159 0.8% 99.0%  
160 1.4% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 3% 95%  
163 5% 91%  
164 6% 86%  
165 8% 81%  
166 9% 73% Majority
167 9% 64%  
168 10% 55% Median
169 9% 45%  
170 9% 36%  
171 7% 27%  
172 6% 19%  
173 5% 13%  
174 3% 8%  
175 2% 5%  
176 1.4% 3%  
177 0.8% 2%  
178 0.5% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0.1% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100% Last Result
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.5% 99.6%  
142 0.8% 99.1%  
143 1.4% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 3% 95%  
146 4% 92%  
147 6% 87%  
148 7% 81%  
149 9% 74%  
150 10% 65%  
151 10% 55% Median
152 9% 46%  
153 9% 37%  
154 8% 28%  
155 6% 20%  
156 4% 13%  
157 3% 9%  
158 2% 6%  
159 2% 3%  
160 0.8% 2%  
161 0.5% 1.0%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.5% 99.6%  
111 0.9% 99.1% Last Result
112 1.5% 98%  
113 3% 97%  
114 4% 94%  
115 5% 91%  
116 7% 86%  
117 8% 79%  
118 9% 71%  
119 10% 62%  
120 10% 52% Median
121 10% 42%  
122 9% 32%  
123 7% 23%  
124 5% 17%  
125 4% 11%  
126 3% 7%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.1% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.3%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.3% 99.8%  
107 0.5% 99.5%  
108 1.0% 99.0%  
109 2% 98%  
110 3% 96%  
111 4% 94%  
112 5% 90%  
113 7% 85%  
114 9% 78%  
115 10% 69%  
116 10% 59% Median
117 10% 49%  
118 9% 39%  
119 9% 30%  
120 7% 22%  
121 5% 15%  
122 4% 10%  
123 2% 6%  
124 2% 4%  
125 1.1% 2%  
126 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.7% 99.3%  
102 1.2% 98.6%  
103 2% 97%  
104 3% 95%  
105 4% 92%  
106 6% 88%  
107 8% 82%  
108 9% 73%  
109 10% 64%  
110 11% 55% Median
111 10% 44%  
112 8% 34%  
113 8% 25%  
114 6% 18%  
115 4% 12%  
116 3% 7%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.2% 3%  
119 0.7% 1.4%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100% Last Result
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.7%  
94 0.7% 99.4%  
95 1.3% 98.7%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 5% 92%  
99 6% 87%  
100 9% 81%  
101 9% 72%  
102 10% 63%  
103 10% 53% Median
104 10% 42%  
105 9% 33%  
106 7% 24%  
107 5% 16%  
108 4% 11%  
109 3% 7%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.1% 2%  
112 0.6% 1.2%  
113 0.3% 0.6%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 1.1% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 5% 92%  
82 7% 87%  
83 9% 81%  
84 10% 72%  
85 11% 62%  
86 11% 51% Median
87 10% 40%  
88 8% 29%  
89 7% 21%  
90 5% 14%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.4% 3%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.8%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 5% 92%  
79 7% 86%  
80 9% 79%  
81 11% 70%  
82 11% 59% Median
83 11% 48%  
84 10% 37%  
85 9% 27%  
86 6% 19% Last Result
87 5% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.4%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 5% 94%  
65 7% 90%  
66 8% 83%  
67 11% 74%  
68 11% 63%  
69 12% 52% Median
70 11% 40%  
71 9% 29%  
72 7% 20%  
73 5% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations