Opinion Poll by ARP, 30 June–3 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 36.4% 34.9–37.8% 34.5–38.3% 34.1–38.6% 33.5–39.4%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 22.4% 21.1–23.7% 20.8–24.1% 20.5–24.4% 19.9–25.0%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 17.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.4% 16.2–19.7% 15.6–20.3%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 10.5% 9.6–11.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.1–12.0% 8.7–12.5%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.4%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 3.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 2.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 127 117–128 117–128 117–131 114–133
Partidul Național Liberal 49 75 73–82 71–82 70–82 69–84
Partidul Social Democrat 86 61 57–64 57–66 56–66 54–68
Uniunea Salvați România 40 34 32–39 31–40 31–40 30–42
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 16 15–19 14–19 13–19 12–21
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.3% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.4%  
116 0.9% 99.3%  
117 12% 98%  
118 0.9% 87%  
119 3% 86%  
120 3% 83%  
121 0.5% 80%  
122 5% 79%  
123 3% 74%  
124 4% 71%  
125 10% 67%  
126 2% 57%  
127 42% 55% Median
128 8% 13%  
129 0.4% 5%  
130 1.4% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 1.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 1.5% 99.6%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 1.4% 94%  
73 4% 93%  
74 38% 88%  
75 19% 50% Median
76 7% 31%  
77 6% 25%  
78 3% 19%  
79 1.3% 16%  
80 0.9% 15%  
81 3% 14%  
82 10% 11%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 12% 96%  
58 2% 85%  
59 17% 83%  
60 6% 66%  
61 10% 59% Median
62 36% 49%  
63 2% 13%  
64 3% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 7% 99.2%  
32 4% 92%  
33 36% 88%  
34 7% 52% Median
35 12% 45%  
36 11% 33%  
37 5% 23%  
38 4% 18%  
39 5% 14%  
40 8% 9% Last Result
41 0.3% 0.9%  
42 0.5% 0.5%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.1%  
14 5% 97%  
15 18% 93%  
16 39% 74% Median
17 11% 35%  
18 12% 24%  
19 10% 12%  
20 1.0% 2%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
23 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 185 100% 184–195 184–195 181–195 179–198
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 175 169 97% 167–177 166–178 165–180 163–182
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 152 0.1% 147–160 147–160 147–161 144–162
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat 135 136 0% 132–142 132–143 130–146 128–147
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 125 0% 123–134 121–136 120–136 119–137
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 127 0% 117–128 117–128 117–131 114–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 109 0% 107–117 107–117 104–117 103–121
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 95 0% 92–99 90–101 90–102 88–105
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 90 0% 90–99 87–99 85–101 84–101
Partidul Național Liberal 49 75 0% 73–82 71–82 70–82 69–84
Partidul Social Democrat 86 61 0% 57–64 57–66 56–66 54–68

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0.3% 99.9%  
179 1.4% 99.6%  
180 0.1% 98%  
181 1.0% 98%  
182 1.4% 97%  
183 0.4% 96%  
184 8% 95%  
185 42% 87%  
186 2% 45% Median
187 10% 43%  
188 4% 33%  
189 3% 29%  
190 5% 26%  
191 0.5% 21%  
192 3% 20%  
193 3% 17%  
194 0.9% 14%  
195 12% 13%  
196 0.9% 2%  
197 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
198 0.1% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.3% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0.4% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.6%  
163 0.2% 99.5%  
164 2% 99.4%  
165 0.5% 98%  
166 6% 97% Majority
167 3% 92%  
168 0.6% 89%  
169 38% 88%  
170 8% 50% Median
171 7% 42%  
172 10% 35%  
173 2% 25%  
174 3% 23%  
175 4% 20% Last Result
176 5% 16%  
177 2% 11%  
178 6% 9%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 0.2% 3%  
181 2% 2%  
182 0.4% 0.6%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.3% 99.7%  
145 1.5% 99.4%  
146 0.3% 98%  
147 9% 98%  
148 2% 89%  
149 8% 87%  
150 2% 79%  
151 7% 77%  
152 37% 70% Median
153 7% 32%  
154 1.2% 25%  
155 0.9% 24%  
156 7% 23%  
157 0.8% 16% Last Result
158 2% 15%  
159 0.8% 14%  
160 10% 13%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.9% 1.2%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1% Majority
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.2% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.5% 99.6%  
129 0.5% 99.1%  
130 2% 98.6%  
131 0.9% 97%  
132 13% 96%  
133 3% 83%  
134 7% 80%  
135 9% 73% Last Result
136 36% 64% Median
137 3% 28%  
138 6% 25%  
139 2% 19%  
140 1.1% 17%  
141 5% 16%  
142 1.2% 10%  
143 6% 9%  
144 0.4% 3%  
145 0.2% 3%  
146 0.8% 3%  
147 2% 2%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100% Last Result
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 1.4% 99.7%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 3% 97%  
122 0.7% 94%  
123 35% 94%  
124 2% 58%  
125 7% 56% Median
126 8% 48%  
127 4% 40%  
128 2% 36%  
129 4% 34%  
130 10% 30%  
131 1.2% 20%  
132 3% 19%  
133 4% 16%  
134 6% 12%  
135 0.3% 5%  
136 4% 5%  
137 0.3% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.5%  
139 0.3% 0.4%  
140 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.3% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.4%  
116 0.9% 99.3%  
117 12% 98%  
118 0.9% 87%  
119 3% 86%  
120 3% 83%  
121 0.5% 80%  
122 5% 79%  
123 3% 74%  
124 4% 71%  
125 10% 67%  
126 2% 57%  
127 42% 55% Median
128 8% 13%  
129 0.4% 5%  
130 1.4% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 1.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100% Last Result
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 3% 99.4%  
105 0.5% 96%  
106 0.7% 96%  
107 42% 95%  
108 2% 53%  
109 5% 51% Median
110 2% 46%  
111 10% 43%  
112 2% 34%  
113 0.9% 32%  
114 7% 31%  
115 11% 23%  
116 0.9% 13%  
117 9% 12%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.3%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.4% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.3% 99.3%  
90 6% 99.0%  
91 0.7% 93%  
92 3% 92%  
93 3% 89%  
94 8% 86%  
95 43% 79% Median
96 10% 35%  
97 10% 26%  
98 5% 16%  
99 1.4% 11%  
100 3% 10%  
101 3% 7%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.5% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.2% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 2% 99.4%  
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 96%  
88 1.3% 93%  
89 2% 92%  
90 49% 90%  
91 3% 41% Median
92 5% 37%  
93 2% 33%  
94 10% 31%  
95 6% 21%  
96 2% 15%  
97 1.5% 13%  
98 0.5% 11%  
99 6% 11%  
100 0.5% 5%  
101 4% 4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 1.5% 99.6%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 1.4% 94%  
73 4% 93%  
74 38% 88%  
75 19% 50% Median
76 7% 31%  
77 6% 25%  
78 3% 19%  
79 1.3% 16%  
80 0.9% 15%  
81 3% 14%  
82 10% 11%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 12% 96%  
58 2% 85%  
59 17% 83%  
60 6% 66%  
61 10% 59% Median
62 36% 49%  
63 2% 13%  
64 3% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations