Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 12–22 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 18.0% 36.0% 34.1–38.0% 33.5–38.5% 33.1–39.0% 32.2–39.9%
Partidul Social Democrat 22.0% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Partidul Național Liberal 13.2% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Uniunea Salvați România 12.4% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 6.3% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul S.O.S. România 7.4% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 6.5% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 129 120–134 119–136 118–137 115–141
Partidul Social Democrat 86 81 76–88 74–89 72–91 70–94
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 52–63 50–64 49–65 46–67
Uniunea Salvați România 40 29 24–32 23–34 23–35 21–37
Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 22 17 14–21 13–22 13–22 12–24
Partidul S.O.S. România 28 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri 24 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.5% 99.4%  
117 0.7% 99.0%  
118 3% 98%  
119 2% 95%  
120 3% 93%  
121 5% 90%  
122 7% 85%  
123 4% 78%  
124 6% 74%  
125 4% 68%  
126 3% 64%  
127 5% 61%  
128 6% 57%  
129 7% 51% Median
130 5% 43%  
131 7% 39%  
132 9% 31%  
133 4% 22%  
134 8% 18%  
135 4% 10%  
136 2% 6%  
137 1.4% 4%  
138 0.9% 2%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.4% 1.0%  
141 0.1% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.2% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 0.8% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 8% 92%  
77 5% 84%  
78 9% 80%  
79 5% 71%  
80 6% 66%  
81 11% 60% Median
82 7% 49%  
83 9% 42%  
84 6% 32%  
85 7% 26%  
86 4% 20% Last Result
87 4% 16%  
88 2% 11%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.4%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 0.7% 98.6%  
49 1.0% 98% Last Result
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 95%  
52 4% 91%  
53 8% 88%  
54 10% 79%  
55 9% 69%  
56 16% 61% Median
57 10% 45%  
58 8% 35%  
59 5% 27%  
60 4% 22%  
61 3% 18%  
62 4% 14%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.7%  
22 1.4% 99.3%  
23 6% 98%  
24 7% 92%  
25 5% 85%  
26 9% 80%  
27 12% 71%  
28 9% 60%  
29 8% 51% Median
30 14% 43%  
31 11% 29%  
32 8% 18%  
33 3% 10%  
34 3% 7%  
35 2% 4%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 6% 98.7%  
14 5% 93%  
15 9% 88%  
16 13% 79%  
17 19% 66% Median
18 16% 47%  
19 11% 31%  
20 9% 20%  
21 6% 11%  
22 3% 5% Last Result
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.6% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 197 183 100% 177–192 176–193 175–194 170–197
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 175 167 56% 160–174 158–176 157–178 153–180
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 157 155 6% 149–164 147–166 145–166 141–170
Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal 135 138 0% 131–147 129–148 128–148 125–154
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 63 129 0% 120–134 119–136 118–137 115–141
Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România 126 110 0% 103–117 102–119 101–121 97–124
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 111 102 0% 95–109 94–111 93–113 90–116
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România 89 85 0% 78–91 77–93 77–95 73–98
Partidul Social Democrat 86 81 0% 76–88 74–89 72–91 70–94
Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség 71 73 0% 69–81 68–83 65–83 62–86
Partidul Național Liberal 49 56 0% 52–63 50–64 49–65 46–67

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0.1% 100% Majority
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.2% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.7%  
170 0.1% 99.6%  
171 0.2% 99.5%  
172 0.4% 99.3%  
173 0.5% 99.0%  
174 0.9% 98%  
175 1.4% 98%  
176 2% 96%  
177 4% 94%  
178 8% 90%  
179 4% 82%  
180 9% 78%  
181 7% 68%  
182 5% 61%  
183 7% 56% Median
184 6% 49%  
185 4% 43%  
186 3% 39%  
187 4% 36%  
188 6% 32%  
189 4% 26%  
190 7% 22%  
191 5% 15%  
192 3% 10%  
193 2% 7%  
194 3% 5%  
195 0.7% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
198 0.2% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.3% 99.6%  
154 0.4% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 98.9%  
156 1.1% 98.6%  
157 2% 98%  
158 2% 95%  
159 1.5% 93%  
160 7% 92%  
161 5% 85%  
162 5% 79%  
163 4% 74%  
164 9% 71%  
165 6% 61%  
166 5% 56% Median, Majority
167 8% 51%  
168 5% 43%  
169 4% 37%  
170 7% 34%  
171 5% 27%  
172 7% 22%  
173 4% 15%  
174 4% 12%  
175 2% 8% Last Result
176 0.9% 6%  
177 2% 5%  
178 2% 3%  
179 0.3% 1.0%  
180 0.3% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.5%  
143 0.3% 99.4%  
144 0.8% 99.1%  
145 1.1% 98%  
146 2% 97%  
147 1.0% 95%  
148 1.4% 94%  
149 5% 93%  
150 9% 88%  
151 5% 79%  
152 8% 74%  
153 4% 66%  
154 8% 62% Median
155 8% 54%  
156 6% 45%  
157 5% 39% Last Result
158 5% 34%  
159 4% 29%  
160 3% 25%  
161 3% 21%  
162 4% 18%  
163 3% 14%  
164 2% 11%  
165 3% 9%  
166 3% 6% Majority
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.3%  
170 0.5% 0.7%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 0.2% 99.5%  
126 0.7% 99.3%  
127 0.6% 98.6%  
128 1.3% 98%  
129 2% 97%  
130 2% 95%  
131 5% 93%  
132 5% 88%  
133 5% 83%  
134 4% 78%  
135 5% 74% Last Result
136 5% 69%  
137 14% 65% Median
138 5% 51%  
139 10% 45%  
140 6% 35%  
141 3% 30%  
142 5% 27%  
143 5% 22%  
144 4% 18%  
145 1.1% 13%  
146 2% 12%  
147 5% 10%  
148 3% 6%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 0.9%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0.4% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.5% 99.4%  
117 0.7% 99.0%  
118 3% 98%  
119 2% 95%  
120 3% 93%  
121 5% 90%  
122 7% 85%  
123 4% 78%  
124 6% 74%  
125 4% 68%  
126 3% 64%  
127 5% 61%  
128 6% 57%  
129 7% 51% Median
130 5% 43%  
131 7% 39%  
132 9% 31%  
133 4% 22%  
134 8% 18%  
135 4% 10%  
136 2% 6%  
137 1.4% 4%  
138 0.9% 2%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.4% 1.0%  
141 0.1% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.2% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 1.0% 99.2%  
100 0.7% 98%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 96%  
103 4% 93%  
104 3% 89%  
105 3% 86%  
106 8% 83%  
107 8% 75%  
108 11% 68%  
109 4% 57%  
110 5% 53% Median
111 10% 47%  
112 5% 37%  
113 7% 32%  
114 4% 25%  
115 6% 21%  
116 4% 15%  
117 4% 11%  
118 2% 7%  
119 1.5% 5%  
120 1.0% 4%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.3% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.5% 0.8%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 0.7% 99.3%  
92 0.5% 98.5%  
93 0.7% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 6% 95%  
96 4% 89%  
97 2% 85%  
98 4% 83%  
99 5% 79%  
100 6% 74%  
101 13% 68%  
102 6% 55% Median
103 11% 50%  
104 3% 39%  
105 8% 35%  
106 6% 27%  
107 5% 21%  
108 3% 17%  
109 3% 13%  
110 3% 10%  
111 3% 7% Last Result
112 0.9% 3%  
113 1.0% 3%  
114 0.3% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.3%  
116 0.4% 0.7%  
117 0.2% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Salvați România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.4%  
75 1.0% 99.1%  
76 0.5% 98%  
77 5% 98%  
78 2% 92%  
79 5% 90%  
80 3% 85%  
81 5% 81%  
82 4% 76%  
83 9% 72%  
84 8% 63%  
85 6% 55% Median
86 11% 50%  
87 5% 39%  
88 14% 34%  
89 3% 20% Last Result
90 5% 18%  
91 4% 13%  
92 2% 9%  
93 3% 7%  
94 1.2% 4%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 0.8% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 8% 92%  
77 5% 84%  
78 9% 80%  
79 5% 71%  
80 6% 66%  
81 11% 60% Median
82 7% 49%  
83 9% 42%  
84 6% 32%  
85 7% 26%  
86 4% 20% Last Result
87 4% 16%  
88 2% 11%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.4%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 0.7% 98.9%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 1.2% 97%  
67 1.1% 96%  
68 3% 95%  
69 4% 92%  
70 8% 88%  
71 6% 79% Last Result
72 12% 74%  
73 15% 61% Median
74 10% 46%  
75 6% 36%  
76 5% 30%  
77 3% 25%  
78 3% 22%  
79 4% 19%  
80 3% 15%  
81 4% 12%  
82 2% 7%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 0.7% 98.6%  
49 1.0% 98% Last Result
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 95%  
52 4% 91%  
53 8% 88%  
54 10% 79%  
55 9% 69%  
56 16% 61% Median
57 10% 45%  
58 8% 35%  
59 5% 27%  
60 4% 22%  
61 3% 18%  
62 4% 14%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations