Opinion Poll by Survation for Scottish Daily Mail, 24–28 June 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 40.6% 38.7–42.5% 38.1–43.1% 37.6–43.6% 36.7–44.5%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.9–21.9% 17.5–22.3% 16.8–23.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 15.8% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.1–18.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.8% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–13.9% 9.5–14.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 66 62–69 61–69 61–70 60–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 22–28 21–29 20–30 19–31
Scottish Labour 24 18 17–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Scottish Greens 6 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 10–18
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
UK Independence Party 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–5

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 16% 89% Last Result
64 9% 73%  
65 14% 65% Majority
66 11% 51% Median
67 17% 40%  
68 13% 23%  
69 7% 10%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 2% 99.2%  
21 6% 97%  
22 8% 91%  
23 12% 84%  
24 20% 72%  
25 17% 52% Median
26 14% 35%  
27 9% 21%  
28 5% 12%  
29 3% 7%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 28% 98%  
18 24% 69% Median
19 17% 45%  
20 8% 28%  
21 8% 20%  
22 6% 12%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.3% 2% Last Result
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 5% 100%  
11 6% 95%  
12 23% 90%  
13 25% 67% Median
14 28% 41%  
15 10% 13%  
16 1.4% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.4%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100%  
5 31% 98.9% Last Result
6 26% 67% Median
7 16% 42%  
8 21% 25%  
9 3% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.4%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 26%  
2 7% 15%  
3 4% 7%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.9% 1.2%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 79 100% 75–82 74–83 73–83 72–84
Scottish National Party 63 66 65% 62–69 61–69 61–70 60–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 50 0% 46–53 46–54 45–55 43–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–50
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 38 0% 35–42 34–43 34–44 33–45
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 31 0% 28–34 27–36 26–36 25–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 22–28 22–29 22–30 21–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.1%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 94%  
76 13% 88%  
77 11% 75%  
78 12% 64%  
79 12% 52% Median
80 13% 40%  
81 12% 26%  
82 8% 14%  
83 4% 6%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 4% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 16% 89% Last Result
64 9% 73%  
65 14% 65% Majority
66 11% 51% Median
67 17% 40%  
68 13% 23%  
69 7% 10%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.3%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 95%  
47 10% 89%  
48 11% 79%  
49 14% 68% Median
50 12% 54%  
51 11% 42%  
52 11% 31%  
53 10% 20%  
54 5% 9%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 4% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 10% 89%  
42 16% 79%  
43 13% 63% Median
44 15% 50%  
45 11% 35%  
46 10% 23%  
47 8% 14%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.4% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 8% 94% Last Result
36 11% 86%  
37 12% 74% Median
38 17% 63%  
39 14% 46%  
40 13% 31%  
41 8% 18%  
42 4% 10%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 4% 97%  
28 10% 93%  
29 13% 84%  
30 15% 71%  
31 13% 56% Median
32 11% 43%  
33 11% 31%  
34 10% 20%  
35 4% 10%  
36 4% 5% Last Result
37 0.9% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 11% 99.2%  
23 15% 88%  
24 14% 73% Median
25 19% 59%  
26 14% 40%  
27 11% 26%  
28 6% 15%  
29 5% 10% Last Result
30 3% 5%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations