Scottish Labour
Voting Intentions
Last result: 19.1% (General Election of 5 May 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.2% | 15.3–19.6% | 14.8–20.2% | 14.5–20.7% | 13.7–21.7% |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov The Times |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| 4 May 2021 | Survation The Courier |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 30 April–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 3 May 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.5–20.7% |
| 28–30 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.0% |
| 27–30 April 2021 | BMG Research The Herald |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| 23–27 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
18.6% | 17.1–20.2% | 16.6–20.7% | 16.3–21.1% | 15.6–21.9% |
| 23–26 April 2021 | Survation GMB |
18.4% | 16.9–20.0% | 16.4–20.5% | 16.1–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| 21–26 April 2021 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.9–20.5% | 15.2–21.2% |
| 20–22 April 2021 | Survation The Sunday Post |
22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.0–25.7% |
| 16–20 April 2021 | YouGov The Times |
17.4% | 16.0–18.8% | 15.6–19.3% | 15.3–19.6% | 14.7–20.3% |
| 16–20 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| 7–19 April 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% |
| 9–12 April 2021 | Panelbase Believe in Scotland |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| 2–7 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
17.8% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% | 15.5–20.3% | 14.8–21.1% |
| 1–6 April 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| 30 March–4 April 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 30 March–1 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 29–30 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 23–26 March 2021 | Find Out Now Daily Express |
16.1% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.2% | 14.0–18.5% | 13.4–19.3% |
| 19–22 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.8–17.2% | 12.2–18.0% |
| 16–19 March 2021 | BMG Research Herald Scotland |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.9–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 11–18 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
20.2% | 18.9–21.6% | 18.5–22.0% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.6–23.0% |
| 11–16 March 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
19.2% | 17.7–20.8% | 17.3–21.2% | 16.9–21.6% | 16.3–22.4% |
| 9–12 March 2021 | Survation Scotland in Union |
20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 5–10 March 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
18.0% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 4–8 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.0% |
| 3–5 March 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
19.0% | 17.4–20.6% | 17.0–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.3% |
| 24–25 February 2021 | Survation Daily Record |
20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 15–21 February 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
14.0% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| 4–9 February 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| 19–22 January 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
16.1% | 14.8–17.7% | 14.4–18.1% | 14.1–18.5% | 13.4–19.3% |
| 11–13 January 2021 | Survation Scot Goes Pop |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 8–13 January 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 11–15 December 2020 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| 4–9 December 2020 | Survation | 20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 20–26 November 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| 5–11 November 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
17.8% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–19.9% | 15.6–20.3% | 14.9–21.1% |
| 6–10 November 2020 | YouGov | 13.0% | 11.8–14.4% | 11.5–14.8% | 11.2–15.2% | 10.6–15.9% |
| 3 November 2020 | Survation | 19.0% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.7–21.4% | 16.0–22.2% |
| 9 October 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 18.1% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.2–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| 2–9 October 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
14.0% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| 17–21 September 2020 | JL Partners Politico |
13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| 2–7 September 2020 | Survation | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 6–13 August 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 16.9% | 15.4–18.5% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.7–19.3% | 14.0–20.1% |
| 6–10 August 2020 | YouGov The Times |
13.8% | 12.6–15.2% | 12.2–15.6% | 11.9–16.0% | 11.4–16.7% |
| 3 July 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.4–17.1% | 13.0–17.4% | 12.4–18.2% |
| 1–5 June 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.3–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.3–19.2% |
| 1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
15.2% | 13.9–16.7% | 13.5–17.1% | 13.2–17.5% | 12.6–18.2% |
| 24–27 April 2020 | YouGov | 12.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.2–14.0% | 9.6–14.7% |
| 24–26 March 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| 28–31 January 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 20–22 January 2020 | Survation Progress Scotland |
19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.2–21.3% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| 3–6 December 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
18.0% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 3 December 2019 | YouGov The Times |
14.1% | 12.7–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.4–17.1% |
| 20–22 November 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
17.0% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 9–11 October 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
18.2% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.3–20.4% | 16.0–20.8% | 15.3–21.6% |
| 3 September 2019 | YouGov The Times |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.7–13.6% |
| 18–20 June 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
16.2% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.2% | 14.1–18.6% | 13.4–19.4% |
| 14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| 24–26 April 2019 | YouGov The Times |
14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.8–17.2% | 12.2–17.9% |
| 18–24 April 2019 | Panelbase | 19.0% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.0–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.3% |
| 6 March 2019 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
19.2% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.2–21.3% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| 1–4 March 2019 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.2–21.3% | 16.9–21.7% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 5 December 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.6–24.6% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 2–7 November 2018 | Panelbase Constitutional Commission |
22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.0–25.7% |
| 18–21 October 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| 3–5 October 2018 | Survation SNP |
21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.8–24.0% | 19.4–24.5% | 18.6–25.3% |
| 4 October 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
20.2% | 18.7–21.9% | 18.2–22.4% | 17.9–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| 2 October 2018 | Survation The Sunday Post |
23.2% | 21.5–24.9% | 21.1–25.4% | 20.7–25.8% | 19.9–26.7% |
| 5–10 July 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 21–27 June 2018 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| 8–13 June 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 20.0–26.8% |
| 1–5 June 2018 | YouGov The Times |
21.1% | 19.6–22.8% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.8–23.7% | 18.1–24.5% |
| 24–28 January 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 21.0–25.3% | 20.6–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| 12–16 January 2018 | YouGov The Times |
21.8% | 20.1–23.5% | 19.7–24.0% | 19.3–24.4% | 18.6–25.3% |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Survation The Sunday Post |
23.8% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.5–27.4% |
| 27–30 November 2017 | Survation Daily Record |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–27.9% | 21.8–28.8% |
| 2–5 October 2017 | YouGov The Times |
24.4% | 22.8–26.1% | 22.4–26.6% | 22.0–27.0% | 21.2–27.8% |
| 8–12 September 2017 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.8–28.9% |
| 9–14 March 2017 | YouGov The Times |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 24–29 November 2016 | YouGov The Times |
14.1% | 12.8–15.5% | 12.5–15.9% | 12.2–16.3% | 11.6–17.0% |
| 4 October 2016 | BMG Research | 16.3% | 14.9–17.9% | 14.5–18.4% | 14.2–18.7% | 13.5–19.5% |
| 29–31 August 2016 | YouGov The Times |
15.3% | 13.9–16.8% | 13.6–17.3% | 13.2–17.6% | 12.6–18.4% |
| 24–28 June 2016 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
15.8% | 14.5–17.4% | 14.1–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.1–18.9% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Scottish Labour.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 11% | 97% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 21% | 86% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 19% | 42% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 13% | 23% | Last Result |
| 19.5–20.5% | 7% | 10% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 24 seats (General Election of 5 May 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 21 | 17–25 | 17–26 | 17–27 | 16–29 |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov The Times |
19 | 17–22 | 17–24 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| 4 May 2021 | Survation The Courier |
24 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 18–31 |
| 30 April–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
25 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–30 | 19–32 |
| 3 May 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
21 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
22 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–25 |
| 28–30 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
19 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 27–30 April 2021 | BMG Research The Herald |
21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| 23–27 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
25 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–29 | 19–31 |
| 23–26 April 2021 | Survation GMB |
23 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 21–26 April 2021 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 17–26 |
| 20–22 April 2021 | Survation The Sunday Post |
25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 21–29 |
| 16–20 April 2021 | YouGov The Times |
21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 16–20 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
22 | 19–25 | 17–26 | 17–26 | 17–27 |
| 7–19 April 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 18 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 9–12 April 2021 | Panelbase Believe in Scotland |
19 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| 2–7 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
22 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 1–6 April 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
22 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 17–27 |
| 30 March–4 April 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
23 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–27 |
| 30 March–1 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
19 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 16–26 |
| 29–30 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 18–28 |
| 23–26 March 2021 | Find Out Now Daily Express |
18 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–25 |
| 19–22 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
17 | 17–19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| 16–19 March 2021 | BMG Research Herald Scotland |
20 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 16–26 |
| 11–18 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
25 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 21–29 |
| 11–16 March 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
24 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 18–30 |
| 9–12 March 2021 | Survation Scotland in Union |
25 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 19–29 |
| 5–10 March 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
22 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 4–8 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
22 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 3–5 March 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
24 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 19–30 |
| 24–25 February 2021 | Survation Daily Record |
25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 19–30 |
| 15–21 February 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
17 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–22 |
| 4–9 February 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
22 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 19–22 January 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
18 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| 11–13 January 2021 | Survation Scot Goes Pop |
23 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–29 |
| 8–13 January 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
22 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 11–15 December 2020 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
19 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 4–9 December 2020 | Survation | 25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 19–30 |
| 20–26 November 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
18 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| 5–11 November 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
22 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 | 17–27 |
| 6–10 November 2020 | YouGov | 17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–21 |
| 3 November 2020 | Survation | 24 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 | 18–29 |
| 9 October 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 22 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 2–9 October 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
16 | 16–17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 13–21 |
| 17–21 September 2020 | JL Partners Politico |
17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–19 |
| 2–7 September 2020 | Survation | 22 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 6–13 August 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 19 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 6–10 August 2020 | YouGov The Times |
17 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 14–22 |
| 3 July 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
17 | 17–20 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 15–23 |
| 1–5 June 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 | 16–24 |
| 1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
17 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 24–27 April 2020 | YouGov | 16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 11–17 |
| 24–26 March 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
17 | 14–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 12–19 |
| 28–31 January 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
17 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| 20–22 January 2020 | Survation Progress Scotland |
23 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| 3–6 December 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
23 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| 3 December 2019 | YouGov The Times |
16 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| 20–22 November 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
22 | 20–24 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| 9–11 October 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
23 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 17–28 |
| 3 September 2019 | YouGov The Times |
13 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 10–17 |
| 18–20 June 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| 14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
23 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 24–26 April 2019 | YouGov The Times |
18 | 17–21 | 17–23 | 16–23 | 16–24 |
| 18–24 April 2019 | Panelbase | 25 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 18–30 |
| 6 March 2019 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
24 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 19–29 |
| 1–4 March 2019 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
23 | 21–26 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 18–31 |
| 5 December 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
27 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 23–34 |
| 2–7 November 2018 | Panelbase Constitutional Commission |
28 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| 18–21 October 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
31 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 | 23–38 |
| 3–5 October 2018 | Survation SNP |
27 | 26–30 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 23–34 |
| 4 October 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–29 | 20–32 |
| 2 October 2018 | Survation The Sunday Post |
30 | 26–35 | 25–36 | 25–37 | 23–39 |
| 5–10 July 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
26 | 23–30 | 23–31 | 22–33 | 21–35 |
| 21–27 June 2018 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
29 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 |
| 8–13 June 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
29 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 25–36 |
| 1–5 June 2018 | YouGov The Times |
27 | 25–31 | 23–32 | 23–33 | 22–35 |
| 24–28 January 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
30 | 26–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 | 24–37 |
| 12–16 January 2018 | YouGov The Times |
29 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 | 23–36 |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Survation The Sunday Post |
33 | 29–37 | 27–38 | 26–39 | 24–41 |
| 27–30 November 2017 | Survation Daily Record |
34 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–39 | 26–42 |
| 2–5 October 2017 | YouGov The Times |
32 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 26–40 |
| 8–12 September 2017 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
35 | 30–39 | 29–40 | 28–42 | 27–46 |
| 9–14 March 2017 | YouGov The Times |
17 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 13–21 |
| 24–29 November 2016 | YouGov The Times |
17 | 16–17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 14–21 |
| 4 October 2016 | BMG Research | 19 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 29–31 August 2016 | YouGov The Times |
17 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–21 | 16–23 |
| 24–28 June 2016 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
18 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Scottish Labour.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 12% | 86% | |
| 19 | 7% | 75% | |
| 20 | 7% | 68% | |
| 21 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 47% | |
| 23 | 9% | 37% | |
| 24 | 10% | 28% | Last Result |
| 25 | 10% | 18% | |
| 26 | 5% | 8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |