Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
Voting Intentions
Last result: 22.9% (General Election of 5 May 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 22.3% | 20.5–24.1% | 20.0–24.6% | 19.6–25.0% | 18.7–26.0% |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov The Times |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 4 May 2021 | Survation The Courier |
21.0% | 19.4–22.8% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 30 April–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| 3 May 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
23.0% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| 3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
23.0% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.2–24.8% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.9% |
| 28–30 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.6–24.5% | 18.9–25.4% |
| 27–30 April 2021 | BMG Research The Herald |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 23–27 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
21.6% | 20.0–23.3% | 19.5–23.8% | 19.1–24.2% | 18.4–25.1% |
| 23–26 April 2021 | Survation GMB |
22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 21–26 April 2021 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
21.0% | 19.5–22.7% | 19.1–23.2% | 18.7–23.6% | 18.0–24.4% |
| 20–22 April 2021 | Survation The Sunday Post |
20.2% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.1–23.5% |
| 16–20 April 2021 | YouGov The Times |
22.4% | 20.9–24.0% | 20.5–24.5% | 20.1–24.9% | 19.5–25.7% |
| 16–20 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 20.9–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 7–19 April 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.3–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| 9–12 April 2021 | Panelbase Believe in Scotland |
22.0% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.7–25.5% |
| 2–7 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
20.8% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.7–23.0% | 18.4–23.4% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 1–6 April 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.6% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 30 March–4 April 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.9–24.4% |
| 30 March–1 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| 29–30 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| 23–26 March 2021 | Find Out Now Daily Express |
21.2% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.1–24.7% |
| 19–22 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
23.8% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.4–27.4% |
| 16–19 March 2021 | BMG Research Herald Scotland |
22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.9–25.5% |
| 11–18 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
19.2% | 18.0–20.6% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.3–21.3% | 16.7–21.9% |
| 11–16 March 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
22.3% | 20.7–23.9% | 20.3–24.4% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.2–25.7% |
| 9–12 March 2021 | Survation Scotland in Union |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.4% |
| 5–10 March 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 4–8 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
21.0% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.1% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.0–24.3% |
| 3–5 March 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 24–25 February 2021 | Survation Daily Record |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.4% |
| 15–21 February 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.9–25.5% |
| 4–9 February 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.5–23.6% | 17.8–24.4% |
| 19–22 January 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
20.2% | 18.7–21.9% | 18.3–22.3% | 17.9–22.7% | 17.2–23.5% |
| 11–13 January 2021 | Survation Scot Goes Pop |
17.0% | 15.5–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| 8–13 January 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.3–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.3–19.2% |
| 11–15 December 2020 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.7–22.6% | 17.0–23.5% |
| 4–9 December 2020 | Survation | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 20–26 November 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.6% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 5–11 November 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.8–21.9% | 17.5–22.4% | 16.8–23.2% |
| 6–10 November 2020 | YouGov | 20.0% | 18.5–21.6% | 18.1–22.1% | 17.7–22.5% | 17.1–23.3% |
| 3 November 2020 | Survation | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.9–19.4% | 14.2–20.1% |
| 9 October 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 21.2% | 19.6–23.0% | 19.2–23.5% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.1–24.7% |
| 2–9 October 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.8–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
| 17–21 September 2020 | JL Partners Politico |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.3% |
| 2–7 September 2020 | Survation | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 6–13 August 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 20.8% | 19.3–22.5% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.4–23.5% | 17.7–24.3% |
| 6–10 August 2020 | YouGov The Times |
20.8% | 19.3–22.4% | 18.9–22.8% | 18.5–23.2% | 17.8–24.0% |
| 3 July 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
18.2% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.3–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| 1–5 June 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
19.0% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.3% |
| 1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.1–25.6% |
| 24–27 April 2020 | YouGov | 23.0% | 21.4–24.7% | 21.0–25.2% | 20.6–25.6% | 19.9–26.4% |
| 24–26 March 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 28–31 January 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.6–28.5% |
| 20–22 January 2020 | Survation Progress Scotland |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.8% | 18.1–24.7% |
| 3–6 December 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 3 December 2019 | YouGov The Times |
25.1% | 23.4–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–27.9% | 21.8–28.8% |
| 20–22 November 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.7% | 21.6–28.6% |
| 9–11 October 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
21.3% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| 3 September 2019 | YouGov The Times |
19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 18.0–22.0% | 17.6–22.5% | 16.9–23.3% |
| 18–20 June 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
20.3% | 18.8–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 18.0–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| 14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.3–21.3% | 16.9–21.7% | 16.2–22.5% |
| 24–26 April 2019 | YouGov The Times |
19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.9–22.0% | 17.5–22.4% | 16.8–23.2% |
| 18–24 April 2019 | Panelbase | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 6 March 2019 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
26.1% | 24.4–28.0% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–29.0% | 22.7–29.9% |
| 1–4 March 2019 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
22.3% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.2–24.5% | 19.8–24.9% | 19.0–25.8% |
| 5 December 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.7% | 22.6–29.6% |
| 2–7 November 2018 | Panelbase Constitutional Commission |
26.2% | 24.5–28.0% | 24.0–28.5% | 23.6–28.9% | 22.8–29.8% |
| 18–21 October 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| 3–5 October 2018 | Survation SNP |
24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.5% | 21.4–28.4% |
| 4 October 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26.3% | 24.6–28.1% | 24.1–28.6% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.9–29.9% |
| 2 October 2018 | Survation The Sunday Post |
21.1% | 19.6–22.8% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.8–23.7% | 18.0–24.6% |
| 5–10 July 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 21–27 June 2018 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
26.9% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.3–29.7% | 23.5–30.6% |
| 8–13 June 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26.2% | 24.4–28.0% | 24.0–28.5% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.8% |
| 1–5 June 2018 | YouGov The Times |
26.2% | 24.6–28.0% | 24.1–28.5% | 23.7–29.0% | 22.9–29.8% |
| 24–28 January 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 21.0–25.3% | 20.6–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| 12–16 January 2018 | YouGov The Times |
24.7% | 23.0–26.5% | 22.5–27.0% | 22.1–27.4% | 21.3–28.3% |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Survation The Sunday Post |
20.8% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.4–23.4% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 27–30 November 2017 | Survation Daily Record |
22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| 2–5 October 2017 | YouGov The Times |
23.4% | 21.9–25.1% | 21.4–25.6% | 21.1–26.0% | 20.3–26.8% |
| 8–12 September 2017 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.1–23.4% | 18.8–23.8% | 18.0–24.6% |
| 9–14 March 2017 | YouGov The Times |
25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.5–27.7% | 21.7–28.6% |
| 24–29 November 2016 | YouGov The Times |
24.2% | 22.6–25.8% | 22.1–26.3% | 21.7–26.7% | 21.0–27.6% |
| 4 October 2016 | BMG Research | 20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.8% |
| 29–31 August 2016 | YouGov The Times |
21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.5% | 19.0–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| 24–28 June 2016 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.9–21.9% | 17.5–22.3% | 16.8–23.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 8% | 98% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 19% | 90% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 22.5–23.5% | 24% | 42% | Last Result |
| 23.5–24.5% | 13% | 18% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 31 seats (General Election of 5 May 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 29 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 24–34 | 22–35 |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov The Times |
28 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 24–33 | 23–35 |
| 4 May 2021 | Survation The Courier |
26 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 21–31 | 21–33 |
| 30 April–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| 3 May 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
30 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 24–35 |
| 3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
29 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| 28–30 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 23–34 |
| 27–30 April 2021 | BMG Research The Herald |
28 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 24–33 | 22–34 |
| 23–27 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–33 | 23–35 |
| 23–26 April 2021 | Survation GMB |
28 | 25–31 | 24–33 | 24–33 | 22–34 |
| 21–26 April 2021 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
25 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 21–32 |
| 20–22 April 2021 | Survation The Sunday Post |
21 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| 16–20 April 2021 | YouGov The Times |
29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| 16–20 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
32 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 25–37 |
| 7–19 April 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 27 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 |
| 9–12 April 2021 | Panelbase Believe in Scotland |
27 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| 2–7 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
26 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–33 |
| 1–6 April 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
28 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 23–34 |
| 30 March–4 April 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
25 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| 30 March–1 April 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
25 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| 29–30 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
21 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| 23–26 March 2021 | Find Out Now Daily Express |
27 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 23–32 | 21–32 |
| 19–22 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
| 16–19 March 2021 | BMG Research Herald Scotland |
27 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–33 |
| 11–18 March 2021 | Survation The Courier |
23 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| 11–16 March 2021 | Opinium Sky News |
29 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–32 | 24–34 |
| 9–12 March 2021 | Survation Scotland in Union |
25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–29 | 20–30 |
| 5–10 March 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
30 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| 4–8 March 2021 | YouGov The Times |
27 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–34 |
| 3–5 March 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
30 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 24–34 |
| 24–25 February 2021 | Survation Daily Record |
25 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–31 |
| 15–21 February 2021 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
27 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–33 |
| 4–9 February 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
25 | 23–28 | 22–30 | 21–30 | 21–32 |
| 19–22 January 2021 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
26 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| 11–13 January 2021 | Survation Scot Goes Pop |
20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 8–13 January 2021 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| 11–15 December 2020 | Savanta ComRes The Scotsman |
24 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–29 | 19–30 |
| 4–9 December 2020 | Survation | 22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| 20–26 November 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
27 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| 5–11 November 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
24 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 19–31 |
| 6–10 November 2020 | YouGov | 26 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| 3 November 2020 | Survation | 20 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–25 |
| 9 October 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 25 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| 2–9 October 2020 | Ipsos MORI STV News |
22 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 |
| 17–21 September 2020 | JL Partners Politico |
24 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| 2–7 September 2020 | Survation | 21 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 6–13 August 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 25 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| 6–10 August 2020 | YouGov The Times |
28 | 26–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| 3 July 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
23 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 18–27 |
| 1–5 June 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
24 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 19–29 |
| 1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
27 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–33 |
| 24–27 April 2020 | YouGov | 30 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
| 24–26 March 2020 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
34 | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 27–40 |
| 28–31 January 2020 | Panelbase Scot Goes Pop |
32 | 29–35 | 27–36 | 26–36 | 26–38 |
| 20–22 January 2020 | Survation Progress Scotland |
25 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 20–31 |
| 3–6 December 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
34 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 28–39 |
| 3 December 2019 | YouGov The Times |
33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 27–36 | 27–38 |
| 20–22 November 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
32 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 26–38 |
| 9–11 October 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
27 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| 3 September 2019 | YouGov The Times |
25 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 21–30 | 20–31 |
| 18–20 June 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
24 | 21–26 | 20–28 | 20–29 | 19–31 |
| 14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
24 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 19–29 |
| 24–26 April 2019 | YouGov The Times |
26 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| 18–24 April 2019 | Panelbase | 29 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 | 24–35 |
| 6 March 2019 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
34 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| 1–4 March 2019 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
28 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| 5 December 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
34 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| 2–7 November 2018 | Panelbase Constitutional Commission |
35 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 29–40 |
| 18–21 October 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
30 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| 3–5 October 2018 | Survation SNP |
32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 26–37 |
| 4 October 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
34 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 27–39 |
| 2 October 2018 | Survation The Sunday Post |
27 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–33 |
| 5–10 July 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 17–29 |
| 21–27 June 2018 | Panelbase Wings Over Scotland |
35 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| 8–13 June 2018 | Panelbase The Sunday Times |
34 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 28–39 |
| 1–5 June 2018 | YouGov The Times |
34 | 33–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 28–40 |
| 24–28 January 2018 | Survation Daily Record |
30 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| 12–16 January 2018 | YouGov The Times |
33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 26–39 |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Survation The Sunday Post |
27 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| 27–30 November 2017 | Survation Daily Record |
28 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–33 | 23–34 |
| 2–5 October 2017 | YouGov The Times |
32 | 29–34 | 27–35 | 27–35 | 25–37 |
| 8–12 September 2017 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
27 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| 9–14 March 2017 | YouGov The Times |
32 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 27–38 |
| 24–29 November 2016 | YouGov The Times |
31 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 26–37 |
| 4 October 2016 | BMG Research | 26 | 23–28 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| 29–31 August 2016 | YouGov The Times |
26 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 21–32 |
| 24–28 June 2016 | Survation Scottish Daily Mail |
25 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 19–31 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 8% | 95% | |
| 26 | 12% | 87% | |
| 27 | 13% | 75% | |
| 28 | 11% | 62% | |
| 29 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 40% | |
| 31 | 10% | 27% | Last Result |
| 32 | 7% | 16% | |
| 33 | 6% | 9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |