Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 29–31 August 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 45.8% 43.8–47.8% 43.3–48.4% 42.8–48.9% 41.9–49.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.5% 19.0–24.0% 18.2–24.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.6–17.3% 13.2–17.6% 12.6–18.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.1–11.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 70 66–71 65–72 65–73 64–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 26 25–30 24–31 24–32 21–32
Scottish Labour 24 17 17–19 17–19 16–21 16–23
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 6–13
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 5–6 4–7 2–8
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100% Last Result
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 8% 99.2% Majority
66 2% 91%  
67 11% 89%  
68 6% 78%  
69 13% 73%  
70 27% 60% Median
71 24% 33%  
72 6% 9%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.4%  
23 1.1% 99.2%  
24 4% 98%  
25 13% 94%  
26 45% 80% Median
27 11% 35%  
28 4% 24%  
29 7% 20%  
30 5% 13%  
31 4% 8% Last Result
32 4% 4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 70% 97% Median
18 15% 27%  
19 7% 11%  
20 2% 5%  
21 1.3% 3%  
22 0.8% 2%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
7 0.4% 99.3%  
8 0.5% 98.8%  
9 0.7% 98%  
10 81% 98% Median
11 13% 17%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 1.1% 99.4%  
4 3% 98%  
5 64% 95% Last Result, Median
6 26% 31%  
7 3% 5%  
8 1.3% 1.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 80 100% 76–82 75–82 75–83 74–83
Scottish National Party 63 70 99.2% 66–71 65–72 65–73 64–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 49 0% 47–53 47–54 46–54 46–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 43 0% 42–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 30–35 29–37 29–37 26–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 33 0% 32–34 32–35 31–36 29–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 22–24 22–25 21–26 20–28

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 7% 99.4%  
76 3% 92%  
77 9% 89%  
78 8% 81%  
79 11% 73%  
80 22% 62% Median
81 28% 39%  
82 7% 11%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100% Last Result
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 8% 99.2% Majority
66 2% 91%  
67 11% 89%  
68 6% 78%  
69 13% 73%  
70 27% 60% Median
71 24% 33%  
72 6% 9%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 3% 99.6%  
47 7% 96%  
48 28% 89% Median
49 22% 61%  
50 11% 38%  
51 8% 27%  
52 9% 19%  
53 3% 11%  
54 7% 8%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.4%  
42 8% 96%  
43 39% 88% Median
44 17% 49%  
45 7% 31%  
46 9% 24%  
47 5% 15%  
48 5% 10%  
49 5% 6%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.5%  
28 1.4% 99.2%  
29 5% 98%  
30 10% 93%  
31 32% 83% Median
32 22% 51%  
33 6% 29%  
34 6% 22%  
35 7% 16%  
36 3% 9% Last Result
37 5% 5%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 0.8% 99.3%  
31 3% 98%  
32 38% 95% Median
33 34% 58%  
34 14% 23%  
35 6% 9% Last Result
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 2%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 3% 98.8%  
22 48% 95% Median
23 28% 47%  
24 12% 20%  
25 4% 8%  
26 1.5% 4%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 0.7% 1.2%  
29 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations