Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 4 October 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 43.9% 41.9–45.9% 41.3–46.5% 40.8–46.9% 39.9–47.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.4% 14.2–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 69 65–71 65–71 64–72 62–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 26 23–28 22–30 21–31 20–32
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–23 17–23 17–24 16–25
Scottish Greens 6 10 6–10 5–10 5–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
64 2% 98%  
65 8% 96% Majority
66 4% 88%  
67 14% 84%  
68 6% 70%  
69 33% 64% Median
70 21% 31%  
71 8% 11%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.7%  
21 4% 98.9%  
22 2% 95%  
23 9% 93%  
24 10% 84%  
25 17% 75%  
26 35% 57% Median
27 10% 22%  
28 4% 13%  
29 3% 9%  
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 0.8% 0.8%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 25% 98%  
18 22% 73%  
19 17% 51% Median
20 7% 34%  
21 8% 28%  
22 8% 19%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3% Last Result
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 5% 98%  
6 4% 93% Last Result
7 4% 89%  
8 3% 85%  
9 10% 82%  
10 70% 72% Median
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 15% 99.4% Last Result
6 45% 84% Median
7 16% 39%  
8 16% 23%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0.5% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 79 100% 74–80 73–81 72–81 70–83
Scottish National Party 63 69 96% 65–71 65–71 64–72 62–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 50 0% 49–54 48–56 47–57 46–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 44 0% 42–48 41–49 41–50 39–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–42
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–38
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 23–29 23–30 22–30 22–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 5% 94%  
75 12% 90%  
76 7% 78%  
77 13% 71%  
78 7% 58%  
79 27% 50% Median
80 15% 23%  
81 5% 8%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.7% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
64 2% 98%  
65 8% 96% Majority
66 4% 88%  
67 14% 84%  
68 6% 70%  
69 33% 64% Median
70 21% 31%  
71 8% 11%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 5% 97%  
49 16% 92%  
50 27% 76%  
51 7% 49% Median
52 13% 42%  
53 7% 29%  
54 12% 22%  
55 5% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.5% 3%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 4% 98%  
42 7% 94%  
43 18% 86%  
44 26% 68%  
45 8% 42% Median
46 11% 34%  
47 8% 23%  
48 8% 15%  
49 4% 7%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.2%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.6%  
31 0.8% 99.3%  
32 6% 98.6%  
33 22% 92%  
34 21% 71%  
35 18% 50% Last Result, Median
36 10% 33%  
37 8% 22%  
38 5% 14%  
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 2% 97%  
29 6% 94%  
30 7% 89%  
31 19% 81%  
32 24% 62% Median
33 14% 38%  
34 11% 24%  
35 5% 13%  
36 4% 8% Last Result
37 3% 4%  
38 0.9% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 5% 99.9%  
23 15% 95%  
24 18% 80%  
25 17% 62% Median
26 10% 46%  
27 9% 35%  
28 9% 26%  
29 9% 17% Last Result
30 5% 7%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.6% 1.0%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations