Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 24–29 November 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.3% 37.5–41.2% 37.0–41.7% 36.5–42.2% 35.7–43.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 24.2% 22.6–25.8% 22.1–26.3% 21.7–26.7% 21.0–27.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.1% 12.8–15.5% 12.5–15.9% 12.2–16.3% 11.6–17.0%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.7–12.8% 9.4–13.1% 8.9–13.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 62 59–64 58–65 57–65 55–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 31 30–34 29–35 28–36 26–37
Scottish Labour 24 17 16–17 16–19 15–19 14–21
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–8
UK Independence Party 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–5
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.0%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 4% 90%  
61 14% 85%  
62 25% 72% Median
63 28% 46% Last Result
64 11% 19%  
65 6% 8% Majority
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 1.1% 99.4%  
28 3% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 24% 91%  
31 18% 68% Last Result, Median
32 18% 50%  
33 17% 32%  
34 6% 15%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.6% 99.7%  
15 2% 99.1%  
16 11% 97%  
17 78% 86% Median
18 3% 9%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.0% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.9%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 12% 100%  
11 10% 88%  
12 31% 78% Median
13 28% 47%  
14 16% 19%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 69% 96% Last Result, Median
6 16% 26%  
7 6% 10%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 31%  
2 5% 13%  
3 4% 8%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.8% 1.2%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 75 100% 72–77 71–77 70–78 68–79
Scottish National Party 63 62 8% 59–64 58–65 57–65 55–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–59 48–60
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 48 0% 46–52 45–52 45–53 43–54
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 19–27

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.4% Last Result
70 2% 98%  
71 5% 96%  
72 8% 91%  
73 11% 83%  
74 18% 72% Median
75 18% 54%  
76 24% 37%  
77 9% 12%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.0%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 4% 90%  
61 14% 85%  
62 25% 72% Median
63 28% 46% Last Result
64 11% 19%  
65 6% 8% Majority
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 18% 92%  
53 19% 74% Median
54 17% 55%  
55 16% 38%  
56 9% 22%  
57 6% 13%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.1% 99.3%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 95%  
47 23% 89%  
48 17% 66% Median
49 17% 49%  
50 16% 32%  
51 5% 16%  
52 7% 11%  
53 2% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.6%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 4% 96%  
35 16% 92%  
36 22% 77% Last Result, Median
37 16% 55%  
38 18% 39%  
39 10% 21%  
40 5% 11%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 8% 98.6%  
33 10% 91%  
34 27% 81% Median
35 26% 54% Last Result
36 17% 29%  
37 6% 11%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.7%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 8% 97%  
22 59% 89% Median
23 16% 30%  
24 9% 14%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations