Opinion Poll by Survation for Scottish Daily Mail, 8–12 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 31.2% 29.4–33.1% 28.9–33.7% 28.4–34.1% 27.6–35.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4% 18.8–23.8% 18.0–24.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 44 40–52 40–54 39–58 36–59
Scottish Labour 24 35 30–39 29–40 28–42 27–46
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 24–30 23–30 22–31 21–32
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 8–15
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 6–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.3%  
38 0.9% 98.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 5% 88%  
42 16% 83%  
43 10% 67%  
44 15% 57% Median
45 8% 42%  
46 6% 33%  
47 4% 28%  
48 4% 24%  
49 2% 20%  
50 2% 18%  
51 3% 15%  
52 3% 12%  
53 3% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 0.9% 5%  
56 0.7% 4%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.2% 99.6%  
28 3% 98%  
29 4% 95%  
30 5% 92%  
31 4% 87%  
32 6% 82%  
33 9% 77%  
34 11% 67%  
35 9% 56% Median
36 10% 47%  
37 15% 37%  
38 10% 22%  
39 4% 12%  
40 4% 8%  
41 1.0% 4%  
42 0.9% 3%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.3% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 1.0%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.6%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 6% 97%  
24 6% 91%  
25 8% 85%  
26 17% 77%  
27 18% 60% Median
28 13% 43%  
29 12% 30%  
30 13% 18%  
31 4% 4% Last Result
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.6% 99.7%  
9 1.5% 99.1%  
10 4% 98%  
11 19% 94%  
12 52% 75% Median
13 17% 24%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.1% 1.4%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
7 1.3% 99.4%  
8 2% 98%  
9 12% 96%  
10 71% 84% Median
11 9% 12%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 1.0%  
2 0.1% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 75 96% 67–79 65–80 63–81 60–84
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 63 26% 55–67 54–68 52–68 50–72
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 54 4% 50–62 49–64 48–66 45–69
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 57 2% 51–61 49–62 48–64 46–67
Scottish National Party 63 44 0% 40–52 40–54 39–58 36–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 47 0% 41–51 40–52 39–54 36–58
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 39 0% 35–43 34–43 33–44 31–45

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
61 1.3% 99.2%  
62 0.3% 98%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 0.9% 97%  
65 2% 96% Majority
66 3% 94%  
67 3% 91%  
68 3% 88%  
69 3% 85%  
70 3% 83%  
71 5% 80%  
72 5% 76%  
73 5% 71%  
74 9% 65% Median
75 13% 56%  
76 12% 43%  
77 12% 31%  
78 6% 19%  
79 7% 13%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.9% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.8% 99.7%  
51 1.1% 98.8%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 1.2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 3% 93% Last Result
56 3% 90%  
57 2% 86%  
58 4% 84%  
59 3% 80%  
60 7% 76%  
61 6% 70%  
62 7% 64% Median
63 16% 57%  
64 14% 40%  
65 8% 26% Majority
66 5% 18%  
67 7% 13%  
68 4% 6%  
69 0.7% 2%  
70 0.5% 1.5%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.4% 99.4%  
47 0.7% 99.0%  
48 0.9% 98%  
49 4% 97%  
50 7% 94%  
51 6% 87%  
52 13% 81%  
53 12% 68%  
54 13% 57% Median
55 9% 44%  
56 5% 35%  
57 5% 29%  
58 5% 24%  
59 3% 20%  
60 3% 17%  
61 3% 15%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 0.9% 4% Majority
66 0.9% 3%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.2%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 4% 92%  
52 3% 88%  
53 3% 84%  
54 4% 82%  
55 5% 78%  
56 7% 73%  
57 16% 66% Median
58 18% 50%  
59 13% 32%  
60 8% 20%  
61 5% 12%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.5% 2% Majority
66 0.5% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.3%  
38 0.9% 98.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 5% 88%  
42 16% 83%  
43 10% 67%  
44 15% 57% Median
45 8% 42%  
46 6% 33%  
47 4% 28%  
48 4% 24%  
49 2% 20%  
50 2% 18%  
51 3% 15%  
52 3% 12%  
53 3% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 0.9% 5%  
56 0.7% 4%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 1.1% 98.9%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 93%  
42 4% 89%  
43 3% 85%  
44 4% 82%  
45 6% 78%  
46 8% 71%  
47 16% 63% Median
48 13% 47%  
49 12% 34%  
50 8% 22%  
51 4% 13%  
52 4% 9%  
53 1.4% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.4%  
57 0.4% 1.0%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.5% 99.4%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 3% 96%  
35 4% 93%  
36 7% 89% Last Result
37 10% 82%  
38 15% 73%  
39 12% 57% Median
40 13% 45%  
41 12% 32%  
42 10% 20%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations