Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 2–5 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 35.6% 33.8–37.4% 33.3–38.0% 32.9–38.4% 32.0–39.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 24.4% 22.8–26.1% 22.4–26.6% 22.0–27.0% 21.2–27.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.4% 21.9–25.1% 21.4–25.6% 21.1–26.0% 20.3–26.8%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.1%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.7%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 54 50–59 48–60 48–61 46–63
Scottish Labour 24 32 30–36 29–36 28–37 26–40
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 29–34 27–35 27–35 25–37
Scottish Greens 6 4 3–7 3–8 2–9 2–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–10
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 1.5% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 94%  
50 4% 93%  
51 9% 88%  
52 11% 79%  
53 11% 68%  
54 9% 57% Median
55 12% 49%  
56 4% 37%  
57 6% 33%  
58 11% 28%  
59 6% 16%  
60 6% 10%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.3% 1.0%  
63 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 97%  
30 7% 92%  
31 21% 85%  
32 14% 64% Median
33 9% 50%  
34 13% 41%  
35 8% 28%  
36 16% 20%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.7% 2%  
39 0.6% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 4% 98%  
28 2% 94%  
29 8% 92%  
30 7% 84%  
31 20% 77% Last Result
32 27% 56% Median
33 14% 30%  
34 10% 15%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 33% 97%  
4 23% 64% Median
5 21% 41%  
6 10% 21% Last Result
7 5% 11%  
8 2% 6%  
9 3% 4%  
10 1.3% 1.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 50% 98% Last Result, Median
6 39% 49%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 6%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 70 95% 65–75 65–76 63–76 61–78
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 64 45% 60–69 59–70 58–70 56–72
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 59 5% 54–64 53–64 53–66 51–68
Scottish National Party 63 54 0% 50–59 48–60 48–61 46–63
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 39–47 38–48 38–49 36–51
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 38 0% 35–42 34–43 34–43 32–46
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 37 0% 35–40 33–41 32–41 31–43

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 99.3%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.1% 96%  
65 6% 95% Majority
66 4% 89%  
67 9% 85%  
68 17% 77%  
69 9% 60% Median
70 8% 51%  
71 8% 43%  
72 8% 35%  
73 8% 27%  
74 6% 19%  
75 6% 13%  
76 5% 7%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.4% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 4% 91%  
61 5% 87%  
62 11% 82%  
63 16% 70%  
64 9% 55% Median
65 6% 45% Majority
66 9% 39%  
67 9% 29%  
68 7% 20%  
69 6% 14%  
70 6% 8%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 1.3% 99.2%  
53 5% 98%  
54 6% 93%  
55 6% 87%  
56 8% 81%  
57 8% 73%  
58 8% 65% Median
59 8% 57%  
60 9% 49%  
61 17% 40%  
62 9% 23%  
63 4% 15%  
64 6% 11%  
65 1.1% 5% Majority
66 2% 4%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 1.5% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 94%  
50 4% 93%  
51 9% 88%  
52 11% 79%  
53 11% 68%  
54 9% 57% Median
55 12% 49%  
56 4% 37%  
57 6% 33%  
58 11% 28%  
59 6% 16%  
60 6% 10%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.3% 1.0%  
63 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.5%  
38 4% 98.5%  
39 13% 95%  
40 10% 82%  
41 6% 72% Median
42 7% 66%  
43 11% 59%  
44 17% 48%  
45 17% 31%  
46 4% 14%  
47 3% 10%  
48 3% 8%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 1.1% 99.0%  
34 4% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 18% 88%  
37 10% 70% Median
38 12% 60%  
39 10% 47%  
40 8% 37%  
41 15% 29%  
42 8% 14%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.9% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 3% 97%  
34 4% 94%  
35 7% 90%  
36 17% 83% Last Result
37 27% 67% Median
38 14% 40%  
39 11% 26%  
40 8% 15%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations