Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 27–30 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 33.2% 31.4–35.2% 30.8–35.7% 30.4–36.2% 29.5–37.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 48 43–55 42–57 41–58 40–60
Scottish Labour 24 34 30–37 29–38 28–39 26–42
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 28 25–32 24–32 24–33 23–34
Scottish Greens 6 10 7–10 6–10 5–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 9 6–12 6–12 6–12 6–13
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 5% 88%  
45 7% 83%  
46 9% 76%  
47 11% 66%  
48 10% 56% Median
49 7% 46%  
50 5% 39%  
51 9% 35%  
52 6% 25%  
53 4% 20%  
54 5% 16%  
55 3% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 1.3% 1.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 6% 92%  
31 8% 86%  
32 11% 78%  
33 14% 68%  
34 16% 54% Median
35 11% 38%  
36 10% 26%  
37 8% 16%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.3%  
42 0.3% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.5% 99.7%  
24 4% 98%  
25 8% 95%  
26 13% 86%  
27 15% 73%  
28 11% 58% Median
29 11% 48%  
30 15% 37%  
31 12% 22% Last Result
32 6% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 1.0% 99.8%  
5 3% 98.8%  
6 5% 96% Last Result
7 5% 90%  
8 10% 85%  
9 13% 76%  
10 61% 62% Median
11 1.1% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100% Last Result
6 11% 99.6%  
7 11% 89%  
8 11% 78%  
9 19% 67% Median
10 21% 48%  
11 14% 27%  
12 12% 13%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.4%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 72 93% 66–76 63–78 62–79 60–81
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 62 26% 57–67 55–68 54–69 52–71
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 57 6% 52–63 51–66 50–67 48–69
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 52 0% 47–57 46–58 44–59 43–61
Scottish National Party 63 48 0% 43–55 42–57 41–58 40–60
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 43 0% 38–47 37–49 36–50 34–53
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 38 0% 33–42 32–42 32–43 31–44

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
61 1.2% 99.2%  
62 1.4% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 1.2% 95%  
65 3% 93% Majority
66 5% 90%  
67 6% 86%  
68 7% 80%  
69 6% 73%  
70 8% 67%  
71 9% 60% Median
72 9% 51%  
73 11% 41%  
74 7% 30%  
75 7% 23%  
76 6% 16%  
77 5% 10%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.7%  
53 0.7% 98.9%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 2% 97% Last Result
56 3% 94%  
57 4% 91%  
58 7% 88%  
59 6% 81%  
60 7% 75%  
61 9% 68%  
62 10% 59% Median
63 14% 49%  
64 9% 35%  
65 10% 26% Majority
66 5% 16%  
67 5% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.2% 3%  
70 0.8% 1.5%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.8% 99.4%  
50 1.4% 98.5%  
51 2% 97%  
52 5% 95%  
53 6% 90%  
54 7% 84%  
55 7% 77%  
56 11% 69%  
57 9% 59%  
58 9% 49% Median
59 8% 40%  
60 6% 32%  
61 7% 27%  
62 6% 20%  
63 4% 14%  
64 3% 10%  
65 1.1% 6% Majority
66 2% 5%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.6%  
44 1.4% 98.9%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 6% 92%  
48 7% 86%  
49 7% 79%  
50 8% 72%  
51 8% 64%  
52 10% 56%  
53 10% 46% Median
54 8% 36%  
55 8% 28%  
56 7% 21%  
57 6% 13%  
58 4% 7%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 5% 88%  
45 7% 83%  
46 9% 76%  
47 11% 66%  
48 10% 56% Median
49 7% 46%  
50 5% 39%  
51 9% 35%  
52 6% 25%  
53 4% 20%  
54 5% 16%  
55 3% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 1.3% 1.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 97%  
38 5% 93%  
39 6% 88%  
40 10% 82%  
41 7% 72%  
42 12% 66%  
43 11% 54% Median
44 9% 43%  
45 9% 34%  
46 8% 25%  
47 8% 17%  
48 4% 9%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 8% 90%  
35 10% 82%  
36 9% 72% Last Result
37 11% 63% Median
38 11% 52%  
39 13% 41%  
40 9% 27%  
41 7% 18%  
42 7% 11%  
43 4% 4%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations