Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 27–30 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Scottish National Party |
41.7% |
33.2% |
31.4–35.2% |
30.8–35.7% |
30.4–36.2% |
29.5–37.1% |
Scottish Labour |
19.1% |
25.2% |
23.5–27.0% |
23.0–27.5% |
22.6–27.9% |
21.8–28.8% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party |
22.9% |
22.1% |
20.5–23.9% |
20.1–24.4% |
19.7–24.8% |
18.9–25.6% |
Scottish Greens |
6.6% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.6% |
6.5–9.9% |
6.1–10.5% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats |
5.2% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.6% |
6.5–9.9% |
6.1–10.5% |
UK Independence Party |
2.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.9% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
42 |
4% |
97% |
|
43 |
6% |
94% |
|
44 |
5% |
88% |
|
45 |
7% |
83% |
|
46 |
9% |
76% |
|
47 |
11% |
66% |
|
48 |
10% |
56% |
Median |
49 |
7% |
46% |
|
50 |
5% |
39% |
|
51 |
9% |
35% |
|
52 |
6% |
25% |
|
53 |
4% |
20% |
|
54 |
5% |
16% |
|
55 |
3% |
10% |
|
56 |
2% |
7% |
|
57 |
2% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
2% |
98% |
|
29 |
4% |
96% |
|
30 |
6% |
92% |
|
31 |
8% |
86% |
|
32 |
11% |
78% |
|
33 |
14% |
68% |
|
34 |
16% |
54% |
Median |
35 |
11% |
38% |
|
36 |
10% |
26% |
|
37 |
8% |
16% |
|
38 |
4% |
8% |
|
39 |
2% |
4% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
1.5% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
4% |
98% |
|
25 |
8% |
95% |
|
26 |
13% |
86% |
|
27 |
15% |
73% |
|
28 |
11% |
58% |
Median |
29 |
11% |
48% |
|
30 |
15% |
37% |
|
31 |
12% |
22% |
Last Result |
32 |
6% |
10% |
|
33 |
3% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
6 |
5% |
96% |
Last Result |
7 |
5% |
90% |
|
8 |
10% |
85% |
|
9 |
13% |
76% |
|
10 |
61% |
62% |
Median |
11 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
11% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
11% |
89% |
|
8 |
11% |
78% |
|
9 |
19% |
67% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
48% |
|
11 |
14% |
27% |
|
12 |
12% |
13% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
60 |
72 |
93% |
66–76 |
63–78 |
62–79 |
60–81 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party |
55 |
62 |
26% |
57–67 |
55–68 |
54–69 |
52–71 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens |
69 |
57 |
6% |
52–63 |
51–66 |
50–67 |
48–69 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
35 |
52 |
0% |
47–57 |
46–58 |
44–59 |
43–61 |
Scottish National Party |
63 |
48 |
0% |
43–55 |
42–57 |
41–58 |
40–60 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
29 |
43 |
0% |
38–47 |
37–49 |
36–50 |
34–53 |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats |
36 |
38 |
0% |
33–42 |
32–42 |
32–43 |
31–44 |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
61 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
62 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
63 |
2% |
97% |
|
64 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
65 |
3% |
93% |
Majority |
66 |
5% |
90% |
|
67 |
6% |
86% |
|
68 |
7% |
80% |
|
69 |
6% |
73% |
|
70 |
8% |
67% |
|
71 |
9% |
60% |
Median |
72 |
9% |
51% |
|
73 |
11% |
41% |
|
74 |
7% |
30% |
|
75 |
7% |
23% |
|
76 |
6% |
16% |
|
77 |
5% |
10% |
|
78 |
2% |
5% |
|
79 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
80 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
53 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
55 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
56 |
3% |
94% |
|
57 |
4% |
91% |
|
58 |
7% |
88% |
|
59 |
6% |
81% |
|
60 |
7% |
75% |
|
61 |
9% |
68% |
|
62 |
10% |
59% |
Median |
63 |
14% |
49% |
|
64 |
9% |
35% |
|
65 |
10% |
26% |
Majority |
66 |
5% |
16% |
|
67 |
5% |
11% |
|
68 |
3% |
6% |
|
69 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.8% |
1.5% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
1.4% |
98.5% |
|
51 |
2% |
97% |
|
52 |
5% |
95% |
|
53 |
6% |
90% |
|
54 |
7% |
84% |
|
55 |
7% |
77% |
|
56 |
11% |
69% |
|
57 |
9% |
59% |
|
58 |
9% |
49% |
Median |
59 |
8% |
40% |
|
60 |
6% |
32% |
|
61 |
7% |
27% |
|
62 |
6% |
20% |
|
63 |
4% |
14% |
|
64 |
3% |
10% |
|
65 |
1.1% |
6% |
Majority |
66 |
2% |
5% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
68 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
69 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
70 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
44 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
45 |
2% |
97% |
|
46 |
3% |
95% |
|
47 |
6% |
92% |
|
48 |
7% |
86% |
|
49 |
7% |
79% |
|
50 |
8% |
72% |
|
51 |
8% |
64% |
|
52 |
10% |
56% |
|
53 |
10% |
46% |
Median |
54 |
8% |
36% |
|
55 |
8% |
28% |
|
56 |
7% |
21% |
|
57 |
6% |
13% |
|
58 |
4% |
7% |
|
59 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
42 |
4% |
97% |
|
43 |
6% |
94% |
|
44 |
5% |
88% |
|
45 |
7% |
83% |
|
46 |
9% |
76% |
|
47 |
11% |
66% |
|
48 |
10% |
56% |
Median |
49 |
7% |
46% |
|
50 |
5% |
39% |
|
51 |
9% |
35% |
|
52 |
6% |
25% |
|
53 |
4% |
20% |
|
54 |
5% |
16% |
|
55 |
3% |
10% |
|
56 |
2% |
7% |
|
57 |
2% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
2% |
98% |
|
37 |
4% |
97% |
|
38 |
5% |
93% |
|
39 |
6% |
88% |
|
40 |
10% |
82% |
|
41 |
7% |
72% |
|
42 |
12% |
66% |
|
43 |
11% |
54% |
Median |
44 |
9% |
43% |
|
45 |
9% |
34% |
|
46 |
8% |
25% |
|
47 |
8% |
17% |
|
48 |
4% |
9% |
|
49 |
2% |
5% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
51 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
3% |
98% |
|
33 |
5% |
95% |
|
34 |
8% |
90% |
|
35 |
10% |
82% |
|
36 |
9% |
72% |
Last Result |
37 |
11% |
63% |
Median |
38 |
11% |
52% |
|
39 |
13% |
41% |
|
40 |
9% |
27% |
|
41 |
7% |
18% |
|
42 |
7% |
11% |
|
43 |
4% |
4% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): Daily Record
- Fieldwork period: 27–30 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1017
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.54%