Opinion Poll by Survation for The Sunday Post, 1–5 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.4–34.2% 28.9–34.7% 28.0–35.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.8% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.5% 20.5–27.4%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.6–24.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 46 42–52 41–55 40–56 39–59
Scottish Labour 24 33 29–37 27–38 26–39 24–41
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 23–30 23–30 22–31 21–32
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–13 10–14 9–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 12 11–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 2% 97%  
42 10% 95%  
43 10% 84%  
44 13% 75%  
45 11% 62%  
46 7% 51% Median
47 7% 44%  
48 6% 36%  
49 7% 31%  
50 7% 23%  
51 5% 17%  
52 3% 12%  
53 2% 9%  
54 1.3% 7%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
25 0.9% 99.4%  
26 2% 98.5%  
27 2% 97%  
28 4% 95%  
29 4% 90%  
30 9% 86%  
31 10% 77%  
32 14% 68%  
33 12% 53% Median
34 11% 41%  
35 8% 30%  
36 8% 22%  
37 7% 14%  
38 4% 6%  
39 0.9% 3%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 8% 96%  
24 6% 89%  
25 8% 83%  
26 17% 75%  
27 21% 58% Median
28 10% 37%  
29 11% 27%  
30 12% 16%  
31 3% 4% Last Result
32 0.5% 0.9%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 57% 99.3% Median
11 21% 42%  
12 14% 21%  
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 3%  
15 1.1% 1.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 5% 97%  
11 19% 92%  
12 42% 73% Median
13 24% 31%  
14 6% 7%  
15 1.0% 1.3%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.7%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 72 93% 66–77 64–77 62–79 60–80
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 60 9% 54–64 53–65 51–67 49–68
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 57 7% 52–63 52–65 50–67 49–69
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 56 0.4% 51–59 49–60 48–62 46–64
Scottish National Party 63 46 0% 42–52 41–55 40–56 39–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 45 0% 40–49 38–50 37–51 36–53
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 39 0% 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–45

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 1.2% 98.6%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 96%  
65 2% 93% Majority
66 2% 91%  
67 4% 88%  
68 6% 84%  
69 6% 78%  
70 8% 71%  
71 7% 64%  
72 7% 57% Median
73 9% 49%  
74 11% 41%  
75 12% 29%  
76 7% 18%  
77 6% 11%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 0.8% 99.2%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 3% 92%  
55 4% 89% Last Result
56 6% 85%  
57 7% 79%  
58 7% 72%  
59 9% 64%  
60 8% 55% Median
61 10% 47%  
62 9% 37%  
63 13% 28%  
64 7% 15%  
65 4% 9% Majority
66 2% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 2% 97%  
52 6% 95%  
53 7% 89%  
54 12% 82%  
55 11% 70%  
56 9% 59% Median
57 7% 51%  
58 7% 43%  
59 8% 36%  
60 6% 29%  
61 6% 22%  
62 4% 16%  
63 2% 12%  
64 2% 9%  
65 3% 7% Majority
66 2% 4%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.4%  
69 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 1.3% 99.3%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 3% 94%  
51 4% 91%  
52 5% 87%  
53 7% 82%  
54 8% 76%  
55 10% 67% Median
56 11% 57%  
57 15% 46%  
58 15% 31%  
59 7% 16%  
60 5% 9%  
61 2% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.4% Majority
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 2% 97%  
42 10% 95%  
43 10% 84%  
44 13% 75%  
45 11% 62%  
46 7% 51% Median
47 7% 44%  
48 6% 36%  
49 7% 31%  
50 7% 23%  
51 5% 17%  
52 3% 12%  
53 2% 9%  
54 1.3% 7%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 2% 97%  
39 3% 95%  
40 4% 92%  
41 5% 89%  
42 7% 83%  
43 8% 76%  
44 11% 68%  
45 10% 57% Median
46 13% 47%  
47 12% 34%  
48 9% 22%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 4% 97%  
35 6% 93%  
36 7% 87% Last Result
37 10% 80%  
38 14% 70%  
39 15% 57% Median
40 12% 42%  
41 10% 30%  
42 11% 20%  
43 5% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations