Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 12–16 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 31.6% 29.8–33.6% 29.3–34.1% 28.8–34.6% 28.0–35.5%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.4% 21.3–28.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 21.8% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 49 43–53 42–55 42–56 40–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 33 30–35 29–36 28–37 26–39
Scottish Labour 24 29 25–33 25–34 24–35 23–36
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 6–10 5–11 5–12 5–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 4% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 7% 87%  
45 7% 80%  
46 7% 73%  
47 5% 65%  
48 7% 60%  
49 6% 54% Median
50 10% 47%  
51 11% 37%  
52 8% 26%  
53 9% 18%  
54 4% 9%  
55 1.4% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.1%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 0.9% 99.0%  
28 1.2% 98%  
29 5% 97%  
30 4% 92%  
31 8% 89% Last Result
32 9% 80%  
33 28% 71% Median
34 20% 44%  
35 15% 24%  
36 4% 8%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 3% 98.6% Last Result
25 8% 95%  
26 7% 87%  
27 20% 80%  
28 6% 60%  
29 8% 54% Median
30 12% 46%  
31 7% 34%  
32 12% 27%  
33 8% 16%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 1.3% 99.6%  
10 57% 98% Median
11 14% 41%  
12 13% 28%  
13 7% 14%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 8% 99.7% Last Result
6 43% 92% Median
7 12% 49%  
8 16% 38%  
9 8% 22%  
10 7% 14%  
11 4% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 1.2%  
2 0.2% 0.5%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 69 88% 64–75 63–76 62–76 59–79
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 62 30% 57–68 56–69 55–69 53–70
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 60 12% 54–65 53–66 53–67 50–70
Scottish National Party 63 49 0% 43–53 42–55 42–56 40–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 47 0% 43–52 42–53 41–54 40–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 41 0% 37–44 35–44 35–45 33–47
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 36 0% 32–41 31–42 30–43 29–45

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
61 0.5% 98.9%  
62 3% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 93%  
65 6% 88% Majority
66 6% 82%  
67 7% 76%  
68 11% 69% Median
69 11% 58%  
70 6% 47%  
71 7% 41%  
72 5% 33%  
73 10% 28%  
74 8% 19%  
75 5% 11%  
76 4% 6%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.5% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 98.9%  
55 1.2% 98% Last Result
56 4% 97%  
57 4% 93%  
58 5% 89%  
59 7% 83%  
60 11% 76%  
61 8% 65%  
62 9% 57% Median
63 13% 48%  
64 5% 35%  
65 9% 30% Majority
66 5% 20%  
67 5% 15%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.5% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.3%  
52 1.5% 99.0%  
53 4% 98%  
54 5% 94%  
55 8% 89%  
56 9% 81%  
57 5% 72%  
58 7% 67%  
59 6% 59% Median
60 11% 53%  
61 11% 42%  
62 7% 31%  
63 6% 23%  
64 6% 18%  
65 4% 12% Majority
66 3% 7%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 4% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 7% 87%  
45 7% 80%  
46 7% 73%  
47 5% 65%  
48 7% 60%  
49 6% 54% Median
50 10% 47%  
51 11% 37%  
52 8% 26%  
53 9% 18%  
54 4% 9%  
55 1.4% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.1%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 6% 97%  
43 9% 91%  
44 10% 82%  
45 10% 72% Median
46 8% 62%  
47 7% 54%  
48 7% 47%  
49 10% 39%  
50 9% 30%  
51 5% 21%  
52 6% 16%  
53 6% 9%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.1%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.2%  
35 4% 98%  
36 1.3% 94% Last Result
37 4% 93%  
38 7% 89%  
39 13% 81% Median
40 15% 68%  
41 25% 53%  
42 11% 28%  
43 6% 17%  
44 7% 11%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
30 2% 99.2%  
31 6% 97%  
32 6% 91%  
33 12% 86%  
34 7% 74%  
35 10% 67% Median
36 10% 57%  
37 8% 48%  
38 8% 39%  
39 9% 31%  
40 10% 22%  
41 5% 12%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations