Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 24–28 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 33.0% 31.2–35.0% 30.7–35.5% 30.2–36.0% 29.4–36.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 50 44–57 43–59 42–60 41–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 26–33 25–33 25–34 24–35
Scottish Labour 24 30 26–34 26–35 25–36 24–37
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 6–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 9 6–12 6–12 6–12 5–13
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.7%  
43 4% 96%  
44 4% 92%  
45 4% 88%  
46 6% 83%  
47 6% 77%  
48 8% 71%  
49 8% 63%  
50 9% 55% Median
51 7% 46%  
52 9% 39%  
53 7% 30%  
54 4% 23%  
55 4% 19%  
56 3% 15%  
57 3% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 5% 98%  
26 8% 93%  
27 10% 85%  
28 10% 75%  
29 10% 65%  
30 18% 55% Median
31 14% 37% Last Result
32 9% 24%  
33 9% 14%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
25 3% 99.1%  
26 8% 96%  
27 12% 88%  
28 10% 76%  
29 9% 66%  
30 10% 56% Median
31 12% 46%  
32 12% 34%  
33 6% 22%  
34 8% 16%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.9%  
6 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
7 0.9% 99.0%  
8 3% 98%  
9 6% 95%  
10 77% 89% Median
11 6% 11%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 1.2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100% Last Result
6 13% 99.4%  
7 10% 87%  
8 12% 76%  
9 17% 64% Median
10 22% 47%  
11 11% 25%  
12 13% 14%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.9%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 69 81% 62–75 61–76 59–77 58–78
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 60 19% 54–67 53–68 52–70 51–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 60 10% 53–64 52–66 51–67 50–69
Scottish National Party 63 50 0% 44–57 43–59 42–60 41–62
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 49 0% 44–55 43–56 42–57 41–58
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 39 0% 35–44 34–46 33–46 31–48
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 39 0% 34–43 33–43 32–44 31–45

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 1.5% 99.0%  
60 2% 97% Last Result
61 2% 95%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 89%  
64 4% 85%  
65 4% 81% Majority
66 7% 77%  
67 8% 71%  
68 8% 63%  
69 9% 55% Median
70 9% 46%  
71 8% 37%  
72 6% 28%  
73 6% 22%  
74 5% 16%  
75 4% 11%  
76 4% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.6%  
52 2% 98.7%  
53 4% 97%  
54 4% 93%  
55 5% 89%  
56 6% 84%  
57 6% 78%  
58 8% 72%  
59 9% 63%  
60 9% 54% Median
61 8% 45%  
62 8% 37%  
63 7% 29%  
64 4% 22%  
65 4% 19% Majority
66 4% 15%  
67 4% 11%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 4% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 3% 90%  
55 4% 87% Last Result
56 6% 82%  
57 7% 77%  
58 6% 69%  
59 8% 64%  
60 13% 56% Median
61 7% 43%  
62 8% 36%  
63 10% 28%  
64 8% 18%  
65 3% 10% Majority
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.7%  
43 4% 96%  
44 4% 92%  
45 4% 88%  
46 6% 83%  
47 6% 77%  
48 8% 71%  
49 8% 63%  
50 9% 55% Median
51 7% 46%  
52 9% 39%  
53 7% 30%  
54 4% 23%  
55 4% 19%  
56 3% 15%  
57 3% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 3% 97%  
44 5% 94%  
45 6% 89%  
46 7% 83%  
47 8% 76%  
48 12% 68%  
49 10% 56% Median
50 13% 47%  
51 8% 34%  
52 5% 26%  
53 7% 21%  
54 4% 14%  
55 4% 10%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 1.3% 99.2%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 6% 90%  
36 7% 85%  
37 9% 77%  
38 13% 69%  
39 9% 56% Median
40 14% 47%  
41 8% 33%  
42 5% 25%  
43 7% 20%  
44 4% 13%  
45 3% 9%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 4% 97%  
34 4% 93%  
35 6% 89%  
36 8% 82% Last Result
37 9% 74%  
38 10% 66%  
39 14% 56% Median
40 12% 42%  
41 11% 30%  
42 10% 20%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations