Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 1–5 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 32.3% 30.5–34.2% 30.0–34.7% 29.5–35.1% 28.7–36.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.2% 24.6–28.0% 24.1–28.5% 23.7–29.0% 22.9–29.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 21.1% 19.6–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.8–23.7% 18.1–24.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.5–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.1% 6.2–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.7–8.8% 5.3–9.3%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 51 45–54 43–55 43–56 41–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 33–37 31–38 30–39 28–40
Scottish Labour 24 27 25–31 23–32 23–33 22–35
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 6–10 6–11 5–12 5–12
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 94%  
45 5% 91%  
46 5% 86%  
47 5% 81%  
48 4% 76%  
49 9% 71%  
50 9% 62%  
51 12% 53% Median
52 13% 42%  
53 15% 29%  
54 6% 13%  
55 4% 7%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.7%  
29 0.7% 99.4%  
30 1.4% 98.7%  
31 3% 97% Last Result
32 4% 94%  
33 23% 90%  
34 24% 68% Median
35 18% 44%  
36 14% 26%  
37 4% 12%  
38 3% 8%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 3% 98%  
24 5% 95% Last Result
25 12% 90%  
26 18% 78%  
27 26% 60% Median
28 12% 35%  
29 5% 23%  
30 4% 17%  
31 6% 14%  
32 3% 7%  
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
7 1.0% 99.6%  
8 4% 98.6%  
9 11% 94%  
10 72% 83% Median
11 6% 11%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9% Last Result
6 46% 95% Median
7 14% 49%  
8 12% 36%  
9 11% 24%  
10 5% 13%  
11 4% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 68 93% 65–74 64–75 63–76 60–78
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 61 19% 58–67 57–68 56–69 53–70
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 61 7% 55–64 54–65 53–66 51–69
Scottish National Party 63 51 0% 45–54 43–55 43–56 41–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 44 0% 41–49 40–51 39–52 38–53
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 41 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 35–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 34 0% 31–39 30–40 29–41 28–43

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
61 0.5% 99.4%  
62 0.5% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 5% 93% Majority
66 13% 88%  
67 14% 75% Median
68 14% 62%  
69 10% 48%  
70 10% 38%  
71 4% 28%  
72 5% 24%  
73 5% 19%  
74 6% 13%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.4%  
55 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 7% 93%  
59 10% 86%  
60 17% 76%  
61 14% 59% Median
62 10% 45%  
63 10% 35%  
64 7% 25%  
65 5% 19% Majority
66 3% 14%  
67 6% 11%  
68 2% 5%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.1% 1.5%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 1.4% 99.3%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 6% 92%  
56 5% 87%  
57 5% 81%  
58 4% 76%  
59 10% 72%  
60 10% 62%  
61 14% 52% Median
62 14% 38%  
63 13% 25%  
64 5% 12%  
65 4% 7% Majority
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 94%  
45 5% 91%  
46 5% 86%  
47 5% 81%  
48 4% 76%  
49 9% 71%  
50 9% 62%  
51 12% 53% Median
52 13% 42%  
53 15% 29%  
54 6% 13%  
55 4% 7%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 6% 96%  
41 8% 90%  
42 8% 83%  
43 21% 75% Median
44 14% 54%  
45 6% 40%  
46 6% 34%  
47 8% 27%  
48 6% 19%  
49 4% 13%  
50 4% 9%  
51 2% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.6%  
36 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
37 1.1% 98.5%  
38 3% 97%  
39 7% 94%  
40 16% 87% Median
41 21% 71%  
42 20% 50%  
43 10% 30%  
44 6% 20%  
45 6% 14%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.2% Last Result
30 3% 97%  
31 7% 94%  
32 12% 87%  
33 21% 75% Median
34 14% 54%  
35 6% 40%  
36 6% 34%  
37 10% 28%  
38 6% 18%  
39 4% 12%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations