Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 8–13 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.2% 34.3–38.2% 33.8–38.8% 33.3–39.2% 32.4–40.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.2% 24.4–28.0% 24.0–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 20.0–26.8%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 54 50–58 48–60 47–60 45–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Scottish Labour 24 29 26–33 26–34 25–35 25–36
Scottish Greens 6 7 4–9 3–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 5–7 4–8 4–9
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 1.5% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 2% 94%  
50 4% 92%  
51 7% 88%  
52 9% 81%  
53 11% 72%  
54 12% 61% Median
55 16% 49%  
56 11% 33%  
57 6% 23%  
58 8% 17%  
59 2% 9%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.7% 99.5%  
29 1.3% 98.8%  
30 3% 97%  
31 8% 95% Last Result
32 15% 87%  
33 12% 72%  
34 23% 60% Median
35 21% 37%  
36 8% 16%  
37 6% 8%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100% Last Result
25 3% 99.6%  
26 18% 96%  
27 9% 78%  
28 12% 69%  
29 12% 57% Median
30 11% 45%  
31 13% 35%  
32 10% 22%  
33 5% 12%  
34 3% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 1.3% 1.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 6% 99.6%  
4 18% 94%  
5 14% 76%  
6 9% 62% Last Result
7 24% 53% Median
8 12% 29%  
9 9% 16%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 57% 97% Last Result, Median
6 34% 40%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 68 90% 65–73 63–75 62–76 60–77
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 63 30% 59–67 58–69 57–70 55–72
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 61 10% 56–64 54–66 53–67 52–69
Scottish National Party 63 54 0% 50–58 48–60 47–60 45–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 41 0% 37–45 37–47 36–48 35–50
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 33–45
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 35 0% 31–39 31–40 30–41 30–42

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
61 1.0% 99.3%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 4% 94%  
65 6% 90% Majority
66 13% 84%  
67 13% 71%  
68 12% 58% Median
69 10% 46%  
70 11% 36%  
71 7% 25%  
72 5% 17%  
73 4% 12%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 1.0% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
56 1.0% 98.9%  
57 3% 98%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 9% 89%  
61 14% 80%  
62 13% 66%  
63 12% 53% Median
64 11% 41%  
65 11% 30% Majority
66 5% 19%  
67 5% 14%  
68 3% 9%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 1.0% 99.6%  
53 1.3% 98.6%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 5% 88%  
58 7% 83%  
59 11% 75%  
60 10% 64%  
61 12% 54% Median
62 13% 42%  
63 13% 29%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 10% Majority
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 1.5% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 2% 94%  
50 4% 92%  
51 7% 88%  
52 9% 81%  
53 11% 72%  
54 12% 61% Median
55 16% 49%  
56 11% 33%  
57 6% 23%  
58 8% 17%  
59 2% 9%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.5% Last Result
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 10% 88%  
39 8% 78%  
40 13% 70%  
41 18% 57% Median
42 13% 39%  
43 7% 26%  
44 5% 19%  
45 4% 14%  
46 3% 10%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 1.4% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 6% 96% Last Result
37 14% 90%  
38 12% 76%  
39 17% 64% Median
40 20% 47%  
41 14% 28%  
42 8% 13%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100% Last Result
30 3% 99.7%  
31 12% 97%  
32 12% 85%  
33 11% 73%  
34 12% 62% Median
35 11% 50%  
36 12% 39%  
37 11% 28%  
38 6% 17%  
39 4% 10%  
40 2% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations