Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Wings Over Scotland, 21–27 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.0% 34.0–37.9% 33.5–38.5% 33.1–39.0% 32.2–39.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.9% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.7% 23.5–30.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.2% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 54 50–58 48–59 47–60 45–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 35 32–38 31–38 31–39 30–40
Scottish Labour 24 29 26–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–9 5–10 5–10 5–12
Scottish Greens 6 4 2–7 2–7 2–8 2–9
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.2% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 3% 94%  
50 5% 91%  
51 9% 86%  
52 9% 77%  
53 13% 68%  
54 15% 55% Median
55 12% 40%  
56 7% 28%  
57 8% 21%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 4% 98% Last Result
32 6% 94%  
33 7% 88%  
34 21% 81%  
35 19% 60% Median
36 14% 41%  
37 16% 27%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
25 2% 99.4%  
26 17% 97%  
27 11% 80%  
28 12% 69%  
29 8% 57% Median
30 8% 49%  
31 15% 41%  
32 11% 26%  
33 5% 15%  
34 5% 9%  
35 3% 5%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 19% 99.9% Last Result
6 48% 81% Median
7 8% 33%  
8 12% 25%  
9 8% 14%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 24% 85%  
4 35% 61% Median
5 8% 26%  
6 5% 17% Last Result
7 8% 12%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.1% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 71 98.7% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 65 51% 60–69 60–70 58–71 57–72
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 58 1.3% 53–62 52–63 51–64 49–66
Scottish National Party 63 54 0% 50–58 48–59 47–60 45–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 40 0% 36–44 35–46 34–47 34–49
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 42 0% 39–45 37–46 37–46 36–48
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 36 0% 32–40 31–42 31–43 30–45

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.4%  
65 2% 98.7% Majority
66 3% 97%  
67 7% 93%  
68 10% 86%  
69 9% 76%  
70 10% 67% Median
71 15% 58%  
72 9% 43%  
73 9% 34%  
74 8% 25%  
75 6% 17%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100% Last Result
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.7%  
58 1.4% 98.7%  
59 2% 97%  
60 5% 95%  
61 9% 90%  
62 9% 81%  
63 12% 72%  
64 9% 61% Median
65 15% 51% Majority
66 9% 36%  
67 8% 27%  
68 6% 19%  
69 5% 13%  
70 4% 8%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.8% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.4%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 4% 93%  
54 6% 89%  
55 8% 83%  
56 9% 75%  
57 9% 66%  
58 15% 57% Median
59 10% 42%  
60 9% 33%  
61 10% 24%  
62 7% 14%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.3% Majority
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.2% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 3% 94%  
50 5% 91%  
51 9% 86%  
52 9% 77%  
53 13% 68%  
54 15% 55% Median
55 12% 40%  
56 7% 28%  
57 8% 21%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 5% 97% Last Result
36 6% 93%  
37 6% 87%  
38 12% 81%  
39 10% 69% Median
40 15% 59%  
41 16% 45%  
42 8% 29%  
43 7% 21%  
44 5% 14%  
45 4% 10%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.6% Last Result
37 4% 98%  
38 5% 95%  
39 7% 90%  
40 12% 83%  
41 16% 71% Median
42 17% 55%  
43 18% 38%  
44 9% 20%  
45 6% 11%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.3%  
32 9% 95%  
33 7% 86%  
34 13% 78%  
35 7% 65% Median
36 11% 58%  
37 16% 46%  
38 11% 31%  
39 6% 20%  
40 5% 14%  
41 4% 9%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.2%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations