Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 5–10 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.9%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.6%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 55 48–59 46–60 44–61 42–63
Scottish Labour 24 26 23–30 23–31 22–33 21–35
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 23 21–26 20–27 19–28 17–29
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 12 10–13 9–14 9–14 8–15
UK Independence Party 0 2 0–5 0–6 0–7 0–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 96%  
47 2% 93%  
48 2% 91%  
49 5% 89%  
50 7% 83%  
51 5% 77%  
52 6% 72%  
53 6% 66%  
54 7% 60%  
55 8% 53% Median
56 11% 45%  
57 10% 34%  
58 9% 24%  
59 7% 15%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.6%  
22 3% 98.8%  
23 13% 96%  
24 21% 83% Last Result
25 11% 63%  
26 11% 51% Median
27 10% 41%  
28 8% 31%  
29 8% 23%  
30 7% 16%  
31 4% 9%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.9% 3%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 0.5% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.4%  
19 2% 98%  
20 5% 96%  
21 13% 91%  
22 16% 78%  
23 25% 63% Median
24 13% 37%  
25 10% 25%  
26 10% 15%  
27 2% 5%  
28 1.4% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 30% 99.7%  
11 20% 70%  
12 17% 50% Median
13 21% 33%  
14 9% 12%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 1.3% 99.8%  
9 6% 98%  
10 8% 93%  
11 27% 84%  
12 34% 57% Median
13 17% 24%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 8% 65%  
2 12% 56% Median
3 15% 44%  
4 11% 29%  
5 10% 19%  
6 5% 9%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 66 65% 60–71 58–72 56–73 54–75
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 61 19% 56–67 55–68 54–70 52–73
Scottish National Party 63 55 0.1% 48–59 46–60 44–61 42–63
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 49 0% 45–55 45–56 44–57 42–60
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 49 0% 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 37 0% 34–42 33–44 32–45 31–48
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 27–42

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 1.0% 99.1%  
56 1.0% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 3% 91%  
61 5% 88%  
62 5% 82%  
63 6% 78%  
64 7% 71%  
65 8% 65% Majority
66 9% 57%  
67 9% 48% Median
68 9% 39%  
69 9% 29% Last Result
70 8% 20%  
71 5% 13%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 1.0% 99.0%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 5% 91%  
57 7% 87%  
58 10% 80%  
59 9% 70%  
60 8% 60% Last Result
61 11% 53% Median
62 8% 42%  
63 9% 34%  
64 7% 26%  
65 6% 19% Majority
66 3% 13%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 96%  
47 2% 93%  
48 2% 91%  
49 5% 89%  
50 7% 83%  
51 5% 77%  
52 6% 72%  
53 6% 66%  
54 7% 60%  
55 8% 53% Median
56 11% 45%  
57 10% 34%  
58 9% 24%  
59 7% 15%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 99.2%  
44 3% 98%  
45 6% 95%  
46 8% 89%  
47 15% 82%  
48 14% 67%  
49 11% 53%  
50 8% 42% Median
51 7% 34%  
52 5% 27%  
53 5% 22%  
54 5% 17%  
55 5% 11%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.9%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 1.1% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 7% 91%  
46 7% 84%  
47 12% 77%  
48 9% 65%  
49 10% 56% Median
50 11% 46%  
51 7% 35%  
52 8% 27%  
53 6% 19%  
54 4% 13%  
55 3% 9% Last Result
56 2% 6%  
57 1.3% 4%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 13% 87%  
36 14% 73%  
37 12% 59%  
38 10% 48% Median
39 8% 38%  
40 7% 29%  
41 6% 22%  
42 6% 16%  
43 4% 10%  
44 2% 6%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 0.6% 99.5%  
29 0.9% 98.8%  
30 2% 98%  
31 5% 96%  
32 8% 91%  
33 13% 82%  
34 19% 70%  
35 15% 51% Median
36 12% 36% Last Result
37 10% 24%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 8%  
40 1.4% 3%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations