Opinion Poll by Survation for The Sunday Post, 2 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 32.2% 30.4–34.1% 29.9–34.7% 29.5–35.2% 28.6–36.1%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.2% 21.5–24.9% 21.1–25.4% 20.7–25.8% 19.9–26.7%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.1% 19.6–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.8–23.7% 18.0–24.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.4–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 49 43–57 42–59 41–59 38–61
Scottish Labour 24 30 26–35 25–36 25–37 23–39
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 23–30 22–30 22–31 21–33
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–13 10–14 8–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 10 7–12 6–12 6–12 5–13
UK Independence Party 0 2 0–6 0–7 0–8 0–8

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 1.0% 98.8%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 6% 91%  
44 6% 85%  
45 7% 80%  
46 8% 73%  
47 6% 65%  
48 7% 59%  
49 6% 52% Median
50 8% 46%  
51 8% 38%  
52 5% 31%  
53 5% 26%  
54 4% 21%  
55 2% 17%  
56 4% 15%  
57 2% 11%  
58 3% 9%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5% Last Result
25 4% 98%  
26 7% 94%  
27 8% 87%  
28 9% 78%  
29 10% 69%  
30 13% 59% Median
31 11% 46%  
32 11% 35%  
33 6% 24%  
34 5% 18%  
35 6% 13%  
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.7%  
22 4% 98.7%  
23 5% 95%  
24 9% 90%  
25 10% 80%  
26 17% 70%  
27 20% 53% Median
28 10% 33%  
29 11% 23%  
30 7% 12%  
31 3% 5% Last Result
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 1.3% 99.2%  
10 56% 98% Median
11 24% 42%  
12 9% 18%  
13 5% 9%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 7% 98%  
7 7% 91%  
8 12% 84%  
9 16% 72%  
10 21% 56% Median
11 24% 34%  
12 9% 11%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 10% 74%  
2 15% 64% Median
3 16% 50%  
4 11% 34%  
5 9% 23%  
6 7% 14%  
7 3% 7%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 67 65% 60–73 58–74 57–75 55–77
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 59 19% 54–67 52–69 51–70 49–72
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 57 2% 51–63 50–63 49–64 47–67
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 51 0% 45–56 44–57 43–59 41–61
Scottish National Party 63 49 0% 43–57 42–59 41–59 38–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 40 0% 35–45 33–47 33–48 31–50
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 32–40 31–41 30–42 28–43

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.1%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 3% 90% Last Result
61 4% 87%  
62 6% 83%  
63 6% 77%  
64 6% 71%  
65 6% 65% Majority
66 8% 59%  
67 9% 51% Median
68 7% 42%  
69 6% 34%  
70 6% 28%  
71 7% 22%  
72 4% 15%  
73 5% 12%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.9% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.8% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 3% 94%  
54 7% 91%  
55 7% 84%  
56 7% 78%  
57 6% 71%  
58 8% 65%  
59 8% 58% Median
60 5% 50%  
61 8% 45%  
62 5% 36%  
63 6% 31%  
64 6% 25%  
65 3% 19% Majority
66 4% 16%  
67 2% 12%  
68 3% 10%  
69 4% 7% Last Result
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 0.9% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 3% 92%  
52 6% 89%  
53 8% 83%  
54 7% 75%  
55 6% 69% Last Result
56 10% 63%  
57 8% 53% Median
58 7% 45%  
59 7% 38%  
60 5% 30%  
61 7% 25%  
62 8% 18%  
63 6% 10%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.2% 2% Majority
66 0.7% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 95%  
45 4% 92%  
46 6% 88%  
47 7% 82%  
48 6% 75%  
49 9% 69%  
50 9% 60% Median
51 11% 51%  
52 8% 39%  
53 9% 32%  
54 5% 23%  
55 4% 18%  
56 5% 14%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 1.0% 98.8%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 6% 91%  
44 6% 85%  
45 7% 80%  
46 8% 73%  
47 6% 65%  
48 7% 59%  
49 6% 52% Median
50 8% 46%  
51 8% 38%  
52 5% 31%  
53 5% 26%  
54 4% 21%  
55 2% 17%  
56 4% 15%  
57 2% 11%  
58 3% 9%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 1.2% 99.0%  
33 3% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 91%  
36 6% 85%  
37 8% 79%  
38 8% 71%  
39 11% 63%  
40 10% 52% Median
41 11% 42%  
42 7% 30%  
43 5% 23%  
44 5% 18%  
45 4% 13%  
46 3% 9%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 99.5%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 3% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 8% 86%  
34 9% 78%  
35 11% 69%  
36 13% 59% Last Result
37 14% 46% Median
38 12% 32%  
39 5% 20%  
40 6% 15%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.0% 1.5%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations