Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 4 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 35.4% 33.5–37.3% 32.9–37.9% 32.5–38.3% 31.6–39.3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.3% 24.6–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–29.9%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 20.2% 18.7–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.9–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 55 52–59 51–60 49–60 46–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–36 30–37 29–38 27–39
Scottish Labour 24 25 23–27 22–28 22–29 20–32
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 9 6–12 6–12 6–12 5–13
Scottish Greens 6 7 4–9 3–10 3–10 2–10
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.4%  
48 0.5% 98.8%  
49 1.5% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 4% 95%  
52 7% 92%  
53 11% 85%  
54 21% 74%  
55 20% 53% Median
56 10% 33%  
57 6% 23%  
58 5% 17%  
59 4% 12%  
60 6% 8%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 0.7% 99.2%  
29 1.2% 98.5%  
30 3% 97%  
31 8% 94% Last Result
32 10% 86%  
33 14% 76%  
34 21% 62% Median
35 18% 41%  
36 15% 22%  
37 4% 8%  
38 3% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.6%  
21 1.3% 99.1%  
22 5% 98%  
23 11% 93%  
24 16% 82% Last Result
25 24% 66% Median
26 23% 42%  
27 10% 19%  
28 5% 9%  
29 2% 5%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.8% 1.5%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100% Last Result
6 17% 98.6%  
7 12% 81%  
8 17% 70%  
9 17% 53% Median
10 15% 36%  
11 9% 21%  
12 10% 12%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 6% 98%  
4 17% 93%  
5 9% 76%  
6 16% 67% Last Result
7 20% 51% Median
8 15% 31%  
9 9% 16%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 68 88% 64–72 63–73 62–74 59–76
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 61 12% 57–65 56–66 55–67 53–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 59 3% 55–62 54–64 53–65 51–67
Scottish National Party 63 55 0% 52–59 51–60 49–60 46–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 43 0% 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 40 0% 37–44 36–45 36–46 34–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 34 0% 31–37 30–38 30–39 28–41

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.9% 99.5% Last Result
61 0.8% 98.5%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 96%  
64 4% 92%  
65 6% 88% Majority
66 11% 82%  
67 19% 71%  
68 16% 52% Median
69 12% 36%  
70 7% 24%  
71 5% 17%  
72 5% 12%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.6% 1.4%  
76 0.4% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.2%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 3% 96%  
57 5% 93%  
58 5% 88%  
59 7% 83%  
60 12% 76%  
61 16% 64%  
62 19% 48% Median
63 11% 29%  
64 6% 18%  
65 4% 12% Majority
66 4% 8%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.3%  
53 1.3% 98.7%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 95% Last Result
56 7% 90%  
57 10% 83%  
58 13% 73%  
59 14% 60% Median
60 19% 46%  
61 11% 27%  
62 7% 17%  
63 4% 9%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.1% 3% Majority
66 0.7% 1.4%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.4%  
48 0.5% 98.8%  
49 1.5% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 4% 95%  
52 7% 92%  
53 11% 85%  
54 21% 74%  
55 20% 53% Median
56 10% 33%  
57 6% 23%  
58 5% 17%  
59 4% 12%  
60 6% 8%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 0.7% 99.1% Last Result
37 1.4% 98%  
38 3% 97%  
39 4% 94%  
40 9% 90%  
41 14% 81%  
42 16% 66%  
43 15% 50% Median
44 11% 36%  
45 11% 25%  
46 6% 13%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 1.3% 99.1% Last Result
36 4% 98%  
37 6% 94%  
38 12% 87%  
39 16% 75%  
40 17% 59%  
41 13% 42% Median
42 10% 29%  
43 8% 19%  
44 4% 11%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.3%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 93%  
32 17% 83%  
33 14% 66%  
34 14% 52% Median
35 11% 38%  
36 11% 27%  
37 8% 17%  
38 5% 9%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.6% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations