Opinion Poll by Survation for SNP, 3–5 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.6% 37.6–41.6% 37.1–42.1% 36.6–42.6% 35.7–43.6%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.8–24.0% 19.4–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 3.9% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 60 58–62 56–63 55–64 52–65
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 30–34 29–35 28–36 26–37
Scottish Labour 24 27 26–30 25–31 25–32 23–34
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–10 5–11 5–12
Scottish Greens 6 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 0.9% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 3% 94%  
58 6% 90%  
59 11% 85%  
60 36% 74% Median
61 19% 37%  
62 9% 19%  
63 7% 10% Last Result
64 2% 3%  
65 1.0% 1.2% Majority
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 1.3% 99.3%  
28 2% 98%  
29 5% 96%  
30 9% 91%  
31 21% 81% Last Result
32 22% 61% Median
33 20% 39%  
34 11% 19%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
25 4% 98%  
26 32% 94%  
27 27% 63% Median
28 14% 35%  
29 8% 21%  
30 5% 13%  
31 4% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 18% 97%  
7 8% 78%  
8 37% 70% Median
9 16% 33%  
10 12% 17%  
11 3% 5%  
12 0.7% 1.2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 25% 91%  
2 63% 66% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 67 93% 65–70 64–71 64–73 62–75
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 62 7% 59–64 58–65 56–65 54–67
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 59 2% 57–62 56–63 56–64 54–67
Scottish National Party 63 60 1.2% 58–62 56–63 55–64 52–65
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–46
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 37 0% 35–39 34–41 33–42 32–44
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–43

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.8% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.1%  
64 5% 98%  
65 9% 93% Majority
66 15% 84%  
67 29% 69% Median
68 19% 40%  
69 9% 21%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 99.3%  
56 1.2% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 96%  
59 5% 92%  
60 9% 88%  
61 19% 79%  
62 29% 60% Median
63 15% 31%  
64 9% 16%  
65 5% 7% Majority
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.8% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.0% Last Result
56 4% 98%  
57 12% 94%  
58 19% 82%  
59 23% 63% Median
60 15% 41%  
61 10% 25%  
62 7% 15%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.0% 2% Majority
66 0.7% 1.5%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 0.9% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 3% 94%  
58 6% 90%  
59 11% 85%  
60 36% 74% Median
61 19% 37%  
62 9% 19%  
63 7% 10% Last Result
64 2% 3%  
65 1.0% 1.2% Majority
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 1.3% 99.3%  
36 3% 98% Last Result
37 10% 95%  
38 9% 85%  
39 14% 76%  
40 17% 61% Median
41 24% 44%  
42 9% 20%  
43 6% 11%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.9% 1.2%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92% Last Result
36 25% 82%  
37 24% 56% Median
38 14% 33%  
39 9% 18%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.5%  
44 0.4% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.5% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.5%  
32 3% 98%  
33 8% 95%  
34 20% 86%  
35 25% 66% Median
36 17% 41%  
37 12% 24%  
38 6% 13%  
39 3% 7%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.5% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations