Opinion Poll by Survation for Daily Record, 18–21 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.2–34.9% 28.3–35.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 47 42–53 42–55 41–56 39–58
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 27–33 26–33 25–33 24–34
Scottish Labour 24 31 26–34 25–35 24–36 23–38
Scottish Greens 6 10 8–12 7–13 6–13 6–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 12 10–13 9–14 8–14 6–15

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.3%  
41 3% 98%  
42 11% 95%  
43 8% 84%  
44 7% 76%  
45 10% 69%  
46 8% 58%  
47 7% 50% Median
48 6% 44%  
49 6% 38%  
50 8% 31%  
51 7% 24%  
52 4% 17%  
53 5% 13%  
54 3% 8%  
55 1.2% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.6%  
25 2% 98.6%  
26 5% 96%  
27 9% 92%  
28 8% 83%  
29 10% 75%  
30 16% 65% Median
31 29% 49% Last Result
32 6% 20%  
33 11% 13%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.9% 100%  
24 3% 99.1% Last Result
25 3% 97%  
26 5% 93%  
27 8% 89%  
28 10% 81%  
29 11% 71%  
30 8% 60%  
31 11% 51% Median
32 11% 40%  
33 12% 30%  
34 9% 17%  
35 4% 8%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.9%  
6 2% 99.6% Last Result
7 4% 97%  
8 10% 93%  
9 21% 83%  
10 38% 61% Median
11 5% 23%  
12 10% 18%  
13 6% 7%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 1.4% 100%  
7 1.0% 98.6%  
8 2% 98%  
9 4% 95%  
10 8% 91%  
11 17% 83%  
12 39% 66% Median
13 21% 28%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 72 95% 66–77 64–78 63–78 61–80
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 61 12% 55–65 53–66 52–67 50–68
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 57 5% 52–63 51–65 51–66 49–68
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 52 0% 47–57 46–57 45–58 43–60
Scottish National Party 63 47 0% 42–53 42–55 41–56 39–58
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 42 0% 37–47 36–47 35–48 33–50
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 42 0% 38–45 36–46 35–46 34–47

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 95% Majority
66 4% 92%  
67 4% 89%  
68 4% 84%  
69 7% 80%  
70 8% 73%  
71 7% 65%  
72 9% 58%  
73 7% 49% Median
74 10% 42%  
75 10% 32%  
76 8% 22%  
77 8% 15%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92% Last Result
56 4% 88%  
57 6% 83%  
58 6% 77%  
59 7% 71%  
60 10% 63%  
61 8% 53% Median
62 12% 44%  
63 11% 32%  
64 9% 21%  
65 6% 12% Majority
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.2%  
51 4% 98%  
52 8% 94%  
53 8% 85%  
54 10% 78%  
55 10% 68%  
56 7% 58%  
57 9% 51% Median
58 7% 42%  
59 8% 35%  
60 7% 27%  
61 4% 20%  
62 4% 16%  
63 4% 11%  
64 2% 8%  
65 2% 5% Majority
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 1.4% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 7% 93%  
48 7% 85%  
49 8% 79%  
50 8% 71%  
51 7% 62%  
52 8% 55%  
53 10% 47% Median
54 8% 37%  
55 8% 29%  
56 8% 21%  
57 9% 13%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.8% 1.5%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.3%  
41 3% 98%  
42 11% 95%  
43 8% 84%  
44 7% 76%  
45 10% 69%  
46 8% 58%  
47 7% 50% Median
48 6% 44%  
49 6% 38%  
50 8% 31%  
51 7% 24%  
52 4% 17%  
53 5% 13%  
54 3% 8%  
55 1.2% 5%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 0.8% 99.3%  
35 1.3% 98.5%  
36 3% 97%  
37 5% 95%  
38 7% 90%  
39 7% 83%  
40 11% 76%  
41 11% 65%  
42 8% 54%  
43 9% 46% Median
44 9% 37%  
45 9% 29%  
46 6% 19%  
47 9% 13%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.6%  
35 1.4% 98.7%  
36 2% 97% Last Result
37 3% 95%  
38 6% 92%  
39 8% 85%  
40 9% 77%  
41 11% 69%  
42 14% 58% Median
43 21% 44%  
44 10% 23%  
45 7% 12%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations