Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Constitutional Commission, 2–7 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.2% 35.3–39.2% 34.8–39.7% 34.4–40.2% 33.5–41.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.5% 23.6–28.9% 22.8–29.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.2–24.4% 19.8–24.8% 19.0–25.7%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 57 53–60 52–61 51–61 48–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 35 32–37 31–38 31–38 29–40
Scottish Labour 24 28 26–32 25–33 25–34 24–35
Scottish Greens 6 4 3–7 2–7 2–8 2–9
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–6 5–7 5–8 4–9
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 1.2% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 9% 86%  
55 11% 78%  
56 13% 67%  
57 12% 54% Median
58 12% 41%  
59 10% 29%  
60 12% 19%  
61 5% 7%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 7% 98% Last Result
32 12% 91%  
33 9% 79%  
34 19% 70%  
35 17% 50% Median
36 15% 33%  
37 13% 18%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
25 4% 99.1%  
26 29% 95%  
27 15% 66%  
28 10% 51% Median
29 10% 41%  
30 8% 31%  
31 10% 23%  
32 7% 12%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.5% 3%  
35 0.6% 1.0%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 29% 93%  
4 35% 64% Median
5 13% 29%  
6 4% 16% Last Result
7 8% 12%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.8% 1.1%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 66% 98% Last Result, Median
6 25% 32%  
7 3% 7%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.7% 1.0%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 68 91% 65–72 64–74 63–75 62–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 62 26% 59–67 58–68 57–69 56–71
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 61 9% 57–64 55–65 54–66 53–67
Scottish National Party 63 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–61 48–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 35–45
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–44 33–46
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 33 0% 31–37 31–38 30–39 30–41

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 3% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 7% 91% Majority
66 12% 84%  
67 17% 72%  
68 17% 55% Median
69 10% 38%  
70 7% 28%  
71 7% 21%  
72 6% 14%  
73 3% 8%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.5% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.3%  
58 3% 97%  
59 6% 94%  
60 8% 88%  
61 13% 80%  
62 18% 67%  
63 15% 49% Median
64 8% 34%  
65 9% 26% Majority
66 7% 17%  
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 1.5% 98.9%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 6% 92%  
58 7% 86%  
59 7% 79%  
60 10% 72%  
61 17% 62% Median
62 17% 45%  
63 12% 28%  
64 7% 16%  
65 5% 9% Majority
66 3% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 1.2% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 9% 86%  
55 11% 78%  
56 13% 67%  
57 12% 54% Median
58 12% 41%  
59 10% 29%  
60 12% 19%  
61 5% 7%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 99.6%  
36 5% 98.9% Last Result
37 12% 93%  
38 9% 82%  
39 15% 73%  
40 16% 57% Median
41 17% 42%  
42 13% 25%  
43 8% 12%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.8%  
34 8% 98%  
35 14% 91% Last Result
36 14% 77%  
37 11% 64% Median
38 14% 53%  
39 12% 40%  
40 11% 28%  
41 8% 17%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
30 3% 99.6%  
31 21% 96%  
32 17% 75%  
33 11% 58% Median
34 12% 47%  
35 9% 34%  
36 9% 25%  
37 8% 17%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations