Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 5 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.9% 36.0–39.9% 35.5–40.5% 35.0–41.0% 34.1–41.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 58 54–61 53–61 51–62 50–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–37 30–37 30–38 28–39
Scottish Labour 24 27 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–10 5–10 5–11
Scottish Greens 6 4 2–7 2–7 2–8 2–9
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 9% 92%  
55 9% 83%  
56 10% 74%  
57 9% 64%  
58 15% 55% Median
59 14% 40%  
60 16% 26%  
61 7% 11%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 1.4% 99.2%  
30 6% 98%  
31 11% 92% Last Result
32 12% 81%  
33 12% 69%  
34 19% 57% Median
35 17% 38%  
36 11% 21%  
37 8% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.4% Last Result
25 8% 97%  
26 36% 88%  
27 18% 53% Median
28 8% 35%  
29 8% 26%  
30 5% 18%  
31 6% 13%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.9% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 30% 99.9% Last Result
6 33% 70% Median
7 9% 37%  
8 18% 28%  
9 5% 10%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.1% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 27% 85%  
4 32% 59% Median
5 12% 27%  
6 4% 15% Last Result
7 7% 11%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.7% 0.9%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 67 88% 64–71 63–73 63–74 61–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 61 12% 57–65 57–66 56–67 55–69
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 62 12% 58–65 56–66 55–66 53–68
Scottish National Party 63 58 0.1% 54–61 53–61 51–62 50–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 41 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–46
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–44 33–46
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 34 0% 31–37 31–38 30–40 30–42

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 3% 98%  
64 6% 94%  
65 10% 88% Majority
66 11% 78%  
67 19% 67% Median
68 17% 48%  
69 9% 31%  
70 7% 22%  
71 6% 15%  
72 3% 9%  
73 2% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.6% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
56 2% 99.0%  
57 8% 97%  
58 8% 89%  
59 11% 82%  
60 14% 71%  
61 15% 57% Median
62 16% 42%  
63 9% 27%  
64 5% 18%  
65 6% 12% Majority
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 3% 94%  
58 6% 91%  
59 7% 85%  
60 9% 78%  
61 17% 69%  
62 19% 52% Median
63 11% 33%  
64 10% 22%  
65 6% 12% Majority
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 9% 92%  
55 9% 83%  
56 10% 74%  
57 9% 64%  
58 15% 55% Median
59 14% 40%  
60 16% 26%  
61 7% 11%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 99.4%  
36 5% 98% Last Result
37 10% 93%  
38 8% 83%  
39 10% 75%  
40 14% 64% Median
41 18% 51%  
42 17% 32%  
43 9% 15%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 1.1%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.9%  
34 6% 98.7%  
35 11% 93% Last Result
36 15% 82%  
37 14% 67% Median
38 13% 53%  
39 13% 39%  
40 11% 26%  
41 7% 15%  
42 3% 8%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.2% 3%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
30 3% 99.6%  
31 14% 96%  
32 17% 83%  
33 14% 66% Median
34 15% 52%  
35 12% 37%  
36 9% 25%  
37 8% 16%  
38 3% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.4% 3%  
41 0.5% 1.3%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations