Opinion Poll by Survation for Scottish Daily Mail, 1–4 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 32.3% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.7–36.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.3% 20.6–24.0% 20.2–24.5% 19.8–24.9% 19.0–25.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.3% 16.9–21.7% 16.2–22.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 53 48–58 46–59 45–60 43–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 28 24–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
Scottish Labour 24 23 21–26 21–28 20–29 18–31
Scottish Greens 6 11 10–14 10–14 10–15 10–16
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 9–17
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 0.9% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 2% 94%  
48 3% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 7% 82%  
51 7% 75%  
52 11% 68%  
53 13% 57% Median
54 5% 44%  
55 8% 39%  
56 7% 31%  
57 9% 24%  
58 9% 15%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.3%  
24 8% 97%  
25 8% 89%  
26 11% 81%  
27 12% 69%  
28 12% 57% Median
29 18% 44%  
30 13% 26%  
31 6% 13% Last Result
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 0.8% 99.5%  
20 3% 98.6%  
21 9% 96%  
22 9% 88%  
23 29% 78% Median
24 30% 50% Last Result
25 7% 19%  
26 5% 12%  
27 2% 8%  
28 2% 5%  
29 1.1% 3%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 31% 99.9%  
11 22% 69% Median
12 17% 47%  
13 11% 30%  
14 16% 19%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 2% 98.9%  
11 9% 97%  
12 32% 88%  
13 36% 55% Median
14 10% 19%  
15 5% 9%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.6%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 64 49% 60–69 58–71 57–73 56–75
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 65 51% 60–69 58–71 56–72 54–73
Scottish National Party 63 53 0% 48–58 46–59 45–60 43–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 51 0% 47–56 47–57 46–59 44–61
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 48 0% 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 41 0% 36–44 36–46 35–46 33–48
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 36 0% 33–39 33–41 32–43 30–45

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 6% 90% Last Result
61 9% 84%  
62 9% 75%  
63 9% 66%  
64 9% 57% Median
65 15% 49% Majority
66 11% 34%  
67 7% 23%  
68 5% 16%  
69 3% 11%  
70 3% 8%  
71 1.4% 5%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 1.2% 98.6%  
57 2% 97%  
58 1.4% 96%  
59 3% 95%  
60 3% 92%  
61 5% 89%  
62 7% 84%  
63 11% 77%  
64 15% 66% Median
65 9% 51% Majority
66 9% 43%  
67 9% 34%  
68 9% 25%  
69 6% 16% Last Result
70 4% 10%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 0.9% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 2% 94%  
48 3% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 7% 82%  
51 7% 75%  
52 11% 68%  
53 13% 57% Median
54 5% 44%  
55 8% 39%  
56 7% 31%  
57 9% 24%  
58 9% 15%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.5%  
46 3% 98%  
47 5% 95%  
48 8% 90%  
49 12% 82%  
50 10% 70%  
51 10% 60% Median
52 11% 50%  
53 17% 39%  
54 7% 21%  
55 5% 15% Last Result
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.8% 3%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.0%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.7%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 5% 97%  
45 8% 92%  
46 15% 84%  
47 16% 69% Median
48 14% 52%  
49 13% 38%  
50 7% 25%  
51 7% 19%  
52 5% 11%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.3%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 96% Last Result
37 6% 89%  
38 9% 83%  
39 10% 74%  
40 9% 64%  
41 15% 55% Median
42 14% 40%  
43 11% 26%  
44 5% 15%  
45 5% 10%  
46 3% 5%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100% Last Result
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.4%  
32 3% 98.6%  
33 6% 95%  
34 10% 90%  
35 16% 79%  
36 22% 63% Median
37 17% 42%  
38 9% 24%  
39 5% 15%  
40 3% 10%  
41 3% 7%  
42 1.5% 4%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.5% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations