Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Wings Over Scotland, 6 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.2% 34.3–38.2% 33.8–38.8% 33.3–39.3% 32.4–40.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.2% 17.6–20.8% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.0% 7.0–11.7%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 56 54–60 53–60 52–61 50–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–36 31–37 30–38 28–39
Scottish Labour 24 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 19–29
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 11 8–13 8–13 7–13 6–13
Scottish Greens 6 4 2–7 2–7 2–8 2–10
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 2% 98%  
53 6% 96%  
54 15% 91%  
55 21% 76%  
56 16% 55% Median
57 8% 39%  
58 10% 31%  
59 8% 21%  
60 11% 13%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.7%  
29 0.6% 99.5%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 13% 96% Last Result
32 10% 83%  
33 12% 73%  
34 19% 61% Median
35 19% 42%  
36 14% 23%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 0.7% 99.4%  
21 4% 98.7%  
22 13% 95%  
23 15% 82%  
24 22% 67% Last Result, Median
25 27% 45%  
26 12% 19%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.9%  
7 2% 98%  
8 9% 96%  
9 11% 87%  
10 19% 76%  
11 22% 57% Median
12 17% 35%  
13 18% 18%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 26% 80%  
4 24% 54% Median
5 8% 30%  
6 10% 22% Last Result
7 7% 12%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.5%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 69 93% 65–72 64–73 63–73 61–75
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 60 7% 57–64 56–65 56–66 54–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 58 0.5% 55–61 54–62 53–63 51–64
Scottish National Party 63 56 0% 54–60 53–60 52–61 50–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 45 0% 41–48 40–48 40–49 38–50
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 35 0% 32–37 31–38 30–39 29–41

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.5% 99.4%  
63 3% 98.8%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 93% Majority
66 9% 89%  
67 13% 80%  
68 13% 67%  
69 13% 54% Median
70 15% 41%  
71 8% 26%  
72 9% 17%  
73 7% 8%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 1.1% 99.2%  
56 7% 98%  
57 9% 91%  
58 9% 83%  
59 15% 74%  
60 13% 59% Median
61 13% 46%  
62 13% 33%  
63 9% 20%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 7% Majority
66 3% 4%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.8% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 7% 91% Last Result
56 7% 85%  
57 16% 77%  
58 17% 62% Median
59 20% 44%  
60 10% 25%  
61 7% 15%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.5% Majority
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 2% 98%  
53 6% 96%  
54 15% 91%  
55 21% 76%  
56 16% 55% Median
57 8% 39%  
58 10% 31%  
59 8% 21%  
60 11% 13%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 1.5% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 9% 95%  
42 9% 86%  
43 11% 76%  
44 12% 66%  
45 13% 54% Median
46 16% 40%  
47 12% 24%  
48 8% 12%  
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 3% 97% Last Result
36 6% 94%  
37 12% 88%  
38 18% 76%  
39 22% 57% Median
40 15% 35%  
41 9% 20%  
42 5% 11%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.5% 3%  
45 0.6% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 9% 93%  
33 12% 84%  
34 14% 72%  
35 16% 58% Median
36 16% 42%  
37 18% 26%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations