Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Scot Goes Pop, 28–31 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 46.9% 44.8–48.9% 44.3–49.4% 43.8–49.9% 42.8–50.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.6–28.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 65–71 64–71 64–72 62–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 29–35 27–36 26–36 26–38
Scottish Labour 24 17 16–18 15–19 13–20 12–21
Scottish Greens 6 8 3–10 3–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.4% Last Result
64 5% 98%  
65 25% 93% Majority
66 7% 68%  
67 18% 61% Median
68 11% 43%  
69 11% 32%  
70 11% 21%  
71 6% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 1.4%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 3% 97%  
28 2% 94%  
29 3% 92%  
30 11% 89%  
31 27% 79% Last Result
32 29% 52% Median
33 7% 23%  
34 4% 16%  
35 6% 11%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 2% 98.8%  
14 2% 97%  
15 2% 95%  
16 13% 93%  
17 68% 79% Median
18 6% 12%  
19 2% 6%  
20 1.5% 3%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 11% 99.8%  
4 22% 89%  
5 4% 67%  
6 3% 63% Last Result
7 7% 60%  
8 9% 53% Median
9 12% 44%  
10 32% 32%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 45% 99.6% Last Result
6 21% 54% Median
7 12% 33%  
8 19% 21%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 75 100% 71–77 70–79 69–80 68–81
Scottish National Party 63 67 93% 65–71 64–71 64–72 62–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 54 0% 52–58 50–59 49–60 48–61
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 45–52 43–53 43–54 42–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 37 0% 35–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 30 0% 26–33 25–33 25–34 24–35
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 23 0% 22–25 21–26 20–27 18–29

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 1.0% 99.6%  
69 3% 98.6% Last Result
70 4% 95%  
71 8% 91%  
72 6% 84%  
73 6% 77%  
74 11% 71%  
75 33% 60% Median
76 11% 27%  
77 7% 16%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 3% 4%  
81 1.4% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.5% 99.4% Last Result
64 5% 98%  
65 25% 93% Majority
66 7% 68%  
67 18% 61% Median
68 11% 43%  
69 11% 32%  
70 11% 21%  
71 6% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 1.4%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 1.4% 99.8%  
49 3% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 3% 94%  
52 7% 91%  
53 11% 84%  
54 33% 73%  
55 11% 40% Median
56 6% 29%  
57 6% 23%  
58 8% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 5% Last Result
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.7%  
43 4% 99.0%  
44 2% 95%  
45 3% 92%  
46 6% 90%  
47 12% 84%  
48 21% 71%  
49 27% 51% Median
50 7% 24%  
51 5% 17%  
52 5% 12%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
56 0.4% 0.4%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.8% 100%  
32 3% 99.2%  
33 2% 97%  
34 2% 95%  
35 6% 93%  
36 11% 88% Last Result
37 32% 77%  
38 13% 45% Median
39 11% 33%  
40 8% 21%  
41 6% 13%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 4% 99.2%  
26 7% 95%  
27 5% 88%  
28 10% 83%  
29 15% 72%  
30 12% 58%  
31 7% 46% Median
32 17% 39%  
33 19% 22%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.6%  
19 0.9% 98%  
20 1.3% 98%  
21 5% 96%  
22 38% 91%  
23 24% 54% Median
24 13% 30%  
25 10% 17%  
26 2% 6%  
27 2% 4%  
28 0.9% 2%  
29 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations