Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 24–26 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 48.0% 46.0–50.0% 45.4–50.6% 44.9–51.1% 44.0–52.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 69 66–73 65–74 65–75 64–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–37 31–37 30–38 27–40
Scottish Labour 24 17 14–17 12–18 12–18 12–19
Scottish Greens 6 2 2–10 2–10 2–10 2–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 5–7 4–8 3–8 2–9

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
64 0.8% 99.8%  
65 6% 99.0% Majority
66 4% 93%  
67 14% 89%  
68 17% 75%  
69 15% 58% Median
70 11% 43%  
71 7% 32%  
72 10% 25%  
73 9% 14%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.4%  
29 0.8% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 7% 96% Last Result
32 13% 90%  
33 14% 76%  
34 14% 62% Median
35 15% 49%  
36 17% 34%  
37 12% 16%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 5% 99.6%  
13 4% 94%  
14 3% 90%  
15 4% 87%  
16 20% 83%  
17 56% 62% Median
18 5% 6%  
19 0.5% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 78% 100% Median
3 4% 22%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0.2% 18% Last Result
7 0.8% 18%  
8 2% 17%  
9 2% 14%  
10 12% 12%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 2% 98.6%  
4 3% 97%  
5 51% 94% Last Result, Median
6 11% 43%  
7 22% 32%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 72 100% 69–77 69–78 68–80 67–82
Scottish National Party 63 69 99.0% 66–73 65–74 65–75 64–76
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 57 0% 52–60 51–60 49–61 47–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 51 0% 47–54 46–54 45–54 42–56
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 40 0% 37–43 36–44 34–45 32–47
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 25 0% 23–29 21–32 20–32 19–32
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 19–24 17–25 17–25 16–26

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Majority
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 11% 97% Last Result
70 15% 86%  
71 13% 71% Median
72 10% 58%  
73 6% 47%  
74 10% 41%  
75 15% 31%  
76 5% 16%  
77 5% 11%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
64 0.8% 99.8%  
65 6% 99.0% Majority
66 4% 93%  
67 14% 89%  
68 17% 75%  
69 15% 58% Median
70 11% 43%  
71 7% 32%  
72 10% 25%  
73 9% 14%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.6%  
48 0.8% 99.0%  
49 0.9% 98%  
50 1.2% 97%  
51 2% 96%  
52 5% 94%  
53 5% 89%  
54 15% 84%  
55 10% 69%  
56 6% 59% Median
57 10% 53%  
58 13% 42%  
59 15% 29%  
60 11% 14% Last Result
61 2% 3%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 1.1% 98.6%  
45 1.5% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 6% 93%  
48 7% 87%  
49 15% 80%  
50 13% 65%  
51 10% 52% Median
52 16% 42%  
53 15% 26%  
54 9% 11%  
55 1.3% 2% Last Result
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.3%  
34 1.1% 98%  
35 2% 97%  
36 3% 96% Last Result
37 12% 93%  
38 11% 81%  
39 10% 70% Median
40 15% 60%  
41 14% 45%  
42 13% 32%  
43 10% 19%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 1.1%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 1.4% 98%  
21 2% 97%  
22 2% 95%  
23 6% 92%  
24 28% 86% Median
25 21% 58%  
26 13% 36%  
27 7% 23%  
28 4% 16%  
29 3% 12%  
30 2% 9%  
31 2% 8%  
32 5% 5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.0% 99.7%  
17 4% 98.6%  
18 3% 95%  
19 4% 92%  
20 5% 87%  
21 9% 83%  
22 33% 74% Median
23 21% 40%  
24 12% 20%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations