Opinion Poll by YouGov, 24–27 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 45.0% 43.1–47.0% 42.6–47.5% 42.1–48.0% 41.2–48.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 23.0% 21.4–24.7% 21.0–25.2% 20.6–25.6% 19.9–26.4%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.0% 9.6–14.7%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.3–9.3%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 65–71 65–72 64–73 63–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 30 27–33 26–33 26–34 25–35
Scottish Labour 24 16 12–17 12–17 11–17 11–17
Scottish Greens 6 10 8–10 6–10 5–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 5–9
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
64 3% 98.8%  
65 23% 96% Majority
66 7% 74%  
67 17% 67% Median
68 10% 49%  
69 10% 39%  
70 12% 30%  
71 10% 18%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 6% 99.3%  
27 9% 93%  
28 11% 84%  
29 12% 73%  
30 13% 61% Median
31 23% 48% Last Result
32 15% 25%  
33 6% 11%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 15% 97%  
13 8% 82%  
14 10% 74%  
15 11% 64%  
16 32% 53% Median
17 21% 21%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 2% 99.4%  
6 3% 97% Last Result
7 3% 95%  
8 3% 91%  
9 8% 88%  
10 78% 80% Median
11 1.1% 1.4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 25% 99.8% Last Result
6 17% 75%  
7 27% 58% Median
8 21% 31%  
9 10% 10%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 77 100% 75–81 74–82 73–82 72–83
Scottish National Party 63 67 96% 65–71 65–72 64–73 63–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 48–54 47–55 47–56 46–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 45 0% 41–48 41–49 40–49 39–50
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 37 0% 33–40 32–40 32–41 31–42
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 32 0% 28–33 27–34 26–34 25–35
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 19–24 18–24 17–24 16–25

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.2%  
74 6% 97%  
75 24% 92%  
76 8% 68%  
77 18% 60% Median
78 10% 42%  
79 8% 31%  
80 10% 24%  
81 8% 14%  
82 4% 6%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
64 3% 98.8%  
65 23% 96% Majority
66 7% 74%  
67 17% 67% Median
68 10% 49%  
69 10% 39%  
70 12% 30%  
71 10% 18%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 4% 98%  
48 8% 94%  
49 10% 86%  
50 8% 76%  
51 10% 69%  
52 18% 58%  
53 8% 40% Median
54 24% 32%  
55 6% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 1.4% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 6% 96%  
42 10% 90%  
43 13% 80%  
44 13% 67%  
45 10% 54%  
46 11% 45% Median
47 16% 34%  
48 8% 17%  
49 8% 9%  
50 1.0% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 4% 99.0%  
33 7% 95%  
34 6% 88%  
35 9% 81%  
36 14% 72% Last Result
37 16% 58% Median
38 17% 42%  
39 13% 24%  
40 8% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.8% 99.7%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 4% 97%  
28 6% 93%  
29 9% 87%  
30 11% 78%  
31 14% 67%  
32 18% 53%  
33 27% 35% Median
34 8% 9%  
35 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.1%  
18 5% 96%  
19 7% 91%  
20 9% 85%  
21 14% 75%  
22 21% 61%  
23 25% 41% Median
24 14% 15%  
25 1.2% 1.5%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations