Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Wings Over Scotland, 1–5 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 48.5% | 46.6–50.5% | 46.0–51.0% | 45.6–51.5% | 44.6–52.4% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.1–25.6% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 15.2% | 13.9–16.7% | 13.5–17.1% | 13.2–17.5% | 12.6–18.2% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.7–8.8% | 5.3–9.3% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 71 | 68–74 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 27 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–33 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 17 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 6 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 2–8 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 2% | 100% | Majority |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 67 | 4% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 5% | 89% | |
| 70 | 14% | 84% | |
| 71 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 72 | 21% | 41% | |
| 73 | 9% | 21% | |
| 74 | 8% | 12% | |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | |
| 26 | 32% | 91% | |
| 27 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 28 | 6% | 47% | |
| 29 | 10% | 41% | |
| 30 | 9% | 31% | |
| 31 | 15% | 22% | Last Result |
| 32 | 6% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 62% | 95% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 33% | |
| 19 | 7% | 21% | |
| 20 | 4% | 15% | |
| 21 | 4% | 10% | |
| 22 | 6% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 14% | 95% | |
| 5 | 25% | 81% | |
| 6 | 7% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 7% | 49% | |
| 8 | 4% | 41% | |
| 9 | 5% | 38% | |
| 10 | 33% | 33% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 5% | 98% | |
| 5 | 74% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 13% | 19% | |
| 7 | 4% | 7% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 78 | 100% | 75–81 | 74–82 | 73–83 | 71–83 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 71 | 100% | 68–74 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 46–58 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 46 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–49 | 42–51 | 41–53 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 33 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 28–39 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 30 | 0% | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 25–35 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 22 | 0% | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 19–29 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 96% | |
| 75 | 11% | 94% | |
| 76 | 17% | 82% | |
| 77 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 53% | |
| 79 | 8% | 44% | |
| 80 | 9% | 36% | |
| 81 | 21% | 28% | |
| 82 | 4% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 2% | 100% | Majority |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 67 | 4% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 5% | 89% | |
| 70 | 14% | 84% | |
| 71 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 72 | 21% | 41% | |
| 73 | 9% | 21% | |
| 74 | 8% | 12% | |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 21% | 93% | |
| 49 | 9% | 72% | Median |
| 50 | 8% | 64% | |
| 51 | 9% | 56% | |
| 52 | 12% | 47% | |
| 53 | 17% | 35% | |
| 54 | 11% | 18% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 26% | 94% | |
| 44 | 6% | 68% | Median |
| 45 | 7% | 62% | |
| 46 | 11% | 55% | |
| 47 | 12% | 44% | |
| 48 | 19% | 32% | |
| 49 | 8% | 13% | |
| 50 | 2% | 5% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 25% | 90% | |
| 32 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 7% | 51% | |
| 34 | 10% | 44% | |
| 35 | 10% | 34% | |
| 36 | 13% | 24% | Last Result |
| 37 | 9% | 11% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 6% | 97% | |
| 27 | 11% | 90% | |
| 28 | 11% | 79% | Median |
| 29 | 11% | 68% | |
| 30 | 8% | 57% | |
| 31 | 10% | 49% | |
| 32 | 28% | 39% | |
| 33 | 9% | 11% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 21 | 6% | 98% | |
| 22 | 48% | 92% | Median |
| 23 | 18% | 44% | |
| 24 | 9% | 26% | |
| 25 | 6% | 18% | |
| 26 | 4% | 12% | |
| 27 | 5% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Panelbase
- Commissioner(s): Wings Over Scotland
- Fieldwork period: 1–5 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1086
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.72%