Opinion Poll by Panelbase for Scot Goes Pop, 1–5 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 48.0% 46.0–50.1% 45.5–50.6% 45.0–51.1% 44.0–52.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 71 69–73 69–75 69–75 67–77
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 24 21–26 20–26 19–27 19–29
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–22 16–23 16–23 16–24
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 5–11 5–11 5–12
Scottish Greens 6 6 4–10 3–10 3–10 2–10

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100% Majority
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 98.9%  
69 8% 98%  
70 20% 89%  
71 26% 69% Median
72 22% 43%  
73 12% 20%  
74 4% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.8%  
20 4% 96%  
21 7% 92%  
22 15% 85%  
23 17% 70%  
24 18% 53% Median
25 18% 35%  
26 14% 17%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.9% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 7% 100%  
17 25% 93%  
18 8% 68%  
19 11% 59% Median
20 10% 48%  
21 16% 39%  
22 15% 23%  
23 6% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 11% 95%  
7 18% 83%  
8 25% 65% Median
9 29% 41%  
10 6% 12%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 4% 99.2%  
4 28% 95%  
5 13% 67%  
6 5% 54% Last Result, Median
7 6% 49%  
8 6% 43%  
9 8% 37%  
10 29% 29%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 78 100% 75–82 74–83 74–83 72–84
Scottish National Party 63 71 100% 69–73 69–75 69–75 67–77
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 51 0% 47–54 46–55 46–55 45–57
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 43 0% 39–46 38–47 38–48 37–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 34 0% 32–37 31–39 30–39 28–41
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–35 26–37
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 28 0% 24–31 23–31 23–32 22–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 1.3% 99.3%  
74 6% 98%  
75 15% 92%  
76 14% 77%  
77 9% 63% Median
78 8% 54%  
79 12% 46%  
80 11% 34%  
81 10% 23%  
82 8% 13%  
83 5% 6%  
84 0.8% 0.8%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100% Majority
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 98.9%  
69 8% 98%  
70 20% 89%  
71 26% 69% Median
72 22% 43%  
73 12% 20%  
74 4% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.8% 99.9%  
46 5% 99.2%  
47 8% 94%  
48 10% 87%  
49 11% 77%  
50 12% 66%  
51 8% 54% Median
52 9% 46%  
53 14% 37%  
54 15% 23%  
55 6% 8%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.9%  
38 6% 99.1%  
39 7% 93%  
40 8% 86%  
41 11% 78%  
42 10% 67%  
43 12% 57% Median
44 12% 46%  
45 15% 33%  
46 9% 18%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 1.3% 99.4%  
30 2% 98%  
31 6% 96%  
32 11% 90%  
33 20% 79% Median
34 20% 58%  
35 15% 38% Last Result
36 9% 23%  
37 5% 14%  
38 4% 9%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.4% 99.9%  
27 3% 98.5%  
28 4% 96%  
29 9% 92%  
30 13% 83%  
31 19% 70%  
32 16% 51% Median
33 15% 35%  
34 13% 20%  
35 5% 7%  
36 1.4% 2% Last Result
37 0.6% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 5% 98%  
24 10% 93%  
25 11% 83%  
26 11% 72%  
27 10% 62% Median
28 13% 51%  
29 13% 39% Last Result
30 13% 25%  
31 9% 12%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.1% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations