Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 3 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 50.5% 48.5–52.5% 47.9–53.1% 47.4–53.5% 46.5–54.5%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 18.2% 16.8–19.9% 16.3–20.3% 16.0–20.7% 15.3–21.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.4–17.1% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.4–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 74 72–76 71–76 70–77 69–79
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 23 20–25 20–26 20–26 18–27
Scottish Labour 24 17 17–20 17–22 17–22 15–23
Scottish Greens 6 10 7–10 5–10 5–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–8 3–9

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 3% 99.5%  
71 5% 97%  
72 9% 92%  
73 30% 83%  
74 28% 53% Median
75 14% 25%  
76 7% 11%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 1.3% 99.4%  
20 8% 98%  
21 8% 90%  
22 14% 82%  
23 24% 67% Median
24 30% 43%  
25 7% 13%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.7%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 71% 98% Median
18 6% 27%  
19 10% 21%  
20 3% 12%  
21 3% 8%  
22 3% 5%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 5% 99.3%  
6 3% 95% Last Result
7 3% 92%  
8 3% 89%  
9 8% 86%  
10 76% 78% Median
11 0.9% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.9%  
4 9% 98.9%  
5 68% 90% Last Result, Median
6 13% 22%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 83 100% 81–85 80–85 78–86 77–87
Scottish National Party 63 74 100% 72–76 71–76 70–77 69–79
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 46 0% 44–48 44–49 43–51 42–52
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 41 0% 39–43 38–44 38–45 36–47
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 32 0% 31–35 29–36 29–37 27–39
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–33
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 22 0% 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 96%  
81 7% 92%  
82 10% 85%  
83 31% 74%  
84 29% 43% Median
85 10% 14%  
86 3% 5%  
87 1.0% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100% Majority
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 3% 99.5%  
71 5% 97%  
72 9% 92%  
73 30% 83%  
74 28% 53% Median
75 14% 25%  
76 7% 11%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.6%  
44 10% 95%  
45 29% 86% Median
46 31% 57%  
47 10% 26%  
48 7% 15%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 1.1% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 17% 94%  
40 24% 77% Median
41 30% 53%  
42 10% 23%  
43 7% 13%  
44 3% 7%  
45 1.4% 4%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 3% 98%  
30 4% 94%  
31 11% 90%  
32 47% 79% Median
33 13% 32%  
34 9% 19%  
35 5% 11% Last Result
36 3% 6%  
37 1.3% 3%  
38 0.9% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 99.5%  
25 5% 98%  
26 10% 93%  
27 9% 83%  
28 27% 74% Median
29 30% 46%  
30 9% 16%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.7%  
21 7% 99.3%  
22 52% 92% Median
23 14% 40%  
24 11% 27%  
25 5% 16%  
26 4% 11%  
27 3% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations