Opinion Poll by Savanta ComRes, 6–13 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 42.6% 40.6–44.6% 40.0–45.1% 39.5–45.6% 38.6–46.6%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.8% 19.3–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.5% 17.7–24.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.9% 15.4–18.5% 15.0–18.9% 14.7–19.3% 14.0–20.1%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 63–69 61–70 61–70 60–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 22–28 21–29 21–30 20–32
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–23 17–23 17–24 16–25
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–12 10–12 10–13 9–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–10 5–11 5–11

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.5% 99.8%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 95%  
63 9% 91% Last Result
64 7% 82%  
65 14% 75% Majority
66 9% 61%  
67 18% 52% Median
68 7% 34%  
69 20% 26%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.9% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 1.5% 99.5%  
21 4% 98%  
22 6% 94%  
23 9% 88%  
24 16% 79%  
25 19% 63% Median
26 24% 44%  
27 8% 20%  
28 4% 12%  
29 4% 8%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 2% Last Result
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 13% 98%  
18 22% 85%  
19 22% 62% Median
20 9% 40%  
21 12% 31%  
22 9% 19%  
23 7% 10%  
24 2% 3% Last Result
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.2% 99.7%  
9 0.8% 99.5%  
10 68% 98.7% Median
11 12% 30%  
12 14% 19%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9% Last Result
6 22% 95%  
7 14% 73%  
8 37% 59% Median
9 12% 22%  
10 7% 10%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 77 100% 73–79 72–80 72–81 71–82
Scottish National Party 63 67 75% 63–69 61–70 61–70 60–71
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 50–56 49–57 48–57 47–58
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 44 0% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–51
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 37 0% 35–41 34–42 33–43 33–44
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–37 27–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 27 0% 24–30 23–32 23–32 22–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100% Last Result
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.5%  
72 3% 98%  
73 6% 95%  
74 8% 89%  
75 12% 81%  
76 10% 68%  
77 19% 58% Median
78 8% 39%  
79 22% 32%  
80 7% 10%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.5% 99.8%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 95%  
63 9% 91% Last Result
64 7% 82%  
65 14% 75% Majority
66 9% 61%  
67 18% 52% Median
68 7% 34%  
69 20% 26%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.9% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 7% 97%  
50 22% 90%  
51 8% 68%  
52 19% 61% Median
53 10% 42%  
54 12% 32%  
55 8% 19%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 5%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 3% 99.0%  
41 5% 96%  
42 10% 91%  
43 11% 81%  
44 25% 70% Median
45 10% 45%  
46 13% 35%  
47 8% 22%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 3% 99.8%  
34 6% 96%  
35 13% 90% Last Result
36 16% 77%  
37 12% 62% Median
38 13% 50%  
39 12% 36%  
40 10% 24%  
41 5% 14%  
42 5% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.6%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 5% 97%  
30 6% 91%  
31 16% 86%  
32 16% 70%  
33 15% 54% Median
34 18% 39%  
35 9% 21%  
36 7% 12% Last Result
37 3% 5%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.9% 100%  
23 4% 99.1%  
24 8% 95%  
25 15% 87%  
26 17% 72%  
27 13% 54% Median
28 11% 41%  
29 12% 30% Last Result
30 9% 18%  
31 4% 9%  
32 3% 5%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations